College Football Best Bets: LSU vs. USC

Week 1 was outstanding for the FTN community, as we hit on the majority of our featured bets and also had a monster day of DFS results. The week isn’t over, though, as we have a standalone game today between LSU and USC that takes place in Nevada. In this breakdown, I will highlight the keys to the game and provide you with my top picks.

LSU Tigers vs. USC Trojans

(LSU -4, O/U 66, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is only the third meeting between these programs and the first in nearly 40 years. The Trojans have won 25 of their last 26 season-openers, but this is their first neutral-site matchup to start the season since 2016, which resulted in a 52-6 loss to Alabama.

These are two programs that have had to replace a lot on both sides of the ball but have fully embraced the transfer portal era, which is a necessity in 2024. LSU is replacing a total of 13 starters while USC returns 10.

The key losses for the Tigers were QB Jayden Daniels along with stud wideouts Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers. Grant Nussmeier will take the reins this year and has been waiting for his turn, so we can expect him to be a master of the playbook while turning in consistently solid performances. He isn’t a mobile QB like Daniels was, but he is confident in the pocket and fully capable of winning games with his arm.

The running back group includes Josh Williams (284 yards in ‘23), Kaleb Jackson (4 TDs in ‘23) and John Emery (1,000 career rushing yards). As for the receiver room, don’t expect a steep decline in overall production, as plenty of talent still exists. Kyren Lacy (30-558-7) will be targeted heavily, while Liberty transfer CJ Daniels (55-1067-10) is an elite playmaker. Mississippi State transfer Zavion Thomas (40-503-1) and upper echelon tight end Mason Taylor (36-348-1) round out the players to know.

With Caleb Williams off to the NFL, the Miller Moss era can now begin. We got a taste of what Moss could do last year when he threw for 372 yards and 6 TDs in a Holiday Bowl win over Louisville. He completed 70% of his passes that day and has an impressive roster around him to make those performances a regular occurrence. UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava is the backup and had a ridiculous camp, which will keep Moss from getting stagnant at any point this season with legitimate talent behind him.

You may know him as Jo’Quavious Marks, but the talented RB will be going by his nickname Woody this year. Interestingly enough, he is a Toy Story superfan which is how the name came about. The Mississippi State transfer will be the starter at tailback and brings with him a wealth of experience from an SEC program. He will be a key piece to this roster and is a multi-dimensional weapon (573 rushing yards & 167 receiving yards).

The receiver room makes most programs jealous, and Moss will have no shortage of options to throw the football to. Duce Robinson (16-351-2), Kyron Hudson (17-189-2), Zachariah Branch (31-320-2), Ja’Kobi Lane (7-93-2) and Makai Lemon (6-88-0) are all back for another year. These are mostly younger players who have barely scratched the surface of their potential. Auburn transfer Jay Fair (31-324-2) and UCLA transfer Kyle Ford (22-236-1) will also contribute. Tight end Lake McRee (26-262-1) is another uber-athletic option in the passing game.

These two teams have quite a bit of similarities, but the experience of LSU and elite offensive line play is the true key to the Tigers’ success tonight. Limiting that explosive USC offense and controlling the clock via a solid run game is a must.

Meanwhile, the Trojans will be best served by pushing the pace and tiring out the Tigers defense. With a myriad of options on offense to choose from, Moss can afford to be patient and pick his spots until an inevitable big play transpires. It’s been an entertaining week of football, but tonight’s game might be the most memorable of the bunch.

Best Bets

Same-Game Parlay

LSU -4, OVER 66 & Miller Moss 300+ Passing Yards (+445, DraftKings Sportsbook)