College Football Best Bets: Boston College vs. Florida State

Week 1 was outstanding for the FTN community, as we hit on the majority of our featured bets and also had a monster day of DFS results. The week isn’t over, though, as we have a standalone game today between Boston College and Florida State. In this breakdown, I will highlight the keys to the game and provide you with my top picks.

BC Eagles vs. FSU Seminoles

(FSU -16.5, O/U 51.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Seminoles will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Georgia Tech over in Ireland that was seen by the masses. They are now in another standalone game situation and have plenty to prove in a matchup they’re expected to win against BC. DJ Uiagalelei is going to have to perform at some point and as an upperclassman, the excuse of “he has upside and potential” can no longer be used.

In order for DJ to flourish, the FSU run game will have to be far more effective than it was last week in Ireland. Roydell Williams, Lawrance Toafili and Jaylin Lucas each offer something different to FSU, and we can expect the offensive playcalling to utilize them all early on.

There is talent in the receiving room with Malik Benson, Ja’Khi Douglas, Jalen Brown and Kyle Morlock, but somebody will need to emerge as DJ’s go-to weapon once they get into a rhythm. My money’s on tight end Morlock to feature heavily in a similar fashion that Mason Taylor did last night for LSU.

For the Eagles, it’s all about mobile quarterback Thomas Castellanos. He cleared 1,100 rushing yards last year and scored 13 times on the ground. However, his passing ability will clearly need to improve, as he completed just 57% of his attempts for 2,270 yards and was picked off 14 times compared to 15 touchdowns.

Kye Robichaux (780 rushing yards) and former Seminoles back Treshaun Ward (651 rushing yards) will share the backfield duties and will form a potentially potent combination. The heart and soul of this team will be their running game, but everyone in the country knows that. The passing game will have to be adequate to keep opposing defenses honest, and I’m not so sure the Eagles have the ability to keep up in shootouts. Therefore, the defense and a methodical offensive style will have to keep things manageable.

FSU has failed to cover a double-digit spread in five of their last nine games and started off 2024 by losing outright to Georgia Tech as a big favorite. Meanwhile, BC has covered as an underdog in three of their last four games against ranked opponents. BC was able to cover against FSU last year when they lost 31-29. In that game, Castellanos was a menace that carried the Eagles on his back all game long. He threw for 305 yards while rushing for 95 yards and scoring 2 total TDs (1 passing/1 rushing).

I have no faith in the Seminoles right now, but I am concerned that BC’s defense and passing offense doesn’t have enough juice to get the job done in this matchup. Overall, look for Castellanos to put on a show, but ultimately the Eagles defense will struggle as they’re not on par with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets unit that caused havoc last week.