Bowl Slate Preview (Jan. 2)

Happy New Year’s to everyone, and what a way to start 2025 it was. The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff were especially entertaining and profitable. When those two things occur, it’s a real shot of endorphins for all of us. Arizona State’s dream season came to an end, but they get all of the respect in the world after being picked near the bottom of the Big 12 by the media. They erased a huge deficit in the second half and nearly pulled off the victory. Cam Skattebo is a superstar, and I really hope he finds his way to success in the NFL.

On a somber note, the final game of the quarterfinals was moved to Thursday due to the attack in New Orleans. Notre Dame will now face Georgia Thursday with the final spot in the semifinals up for grabs. You can find our full breakdown of that game in Wednesday’s Bowl Preview, and it’s repeated below as well. Some of the lines have changed, so be sure to shop around before placing any bets for that one.

Sugar Bowl (CFB Playoffs Quarterfinals) — Originally Published Wednesday

Notre Dame vs. Georgia

Georgia -1.5, O/U 45.5

The Bulldogs are favorites, but we are seeing movement on multiple books — Caesars has moved it to a pick’em and DraftKings has moved between the two teams as the favorite. We can expect a ton of additional movement before the game begins.

As I mentioned on my guest appearance on the FTN SiriusXM show, I am backing Notre Dame confidently here, and I have never wavered on that. They’re starting to feel like a team of destiny somewhat, and they match up extremely well with a typically tough Georgia squad. We have seen the Bulldogs struggle with mobile QBs, as Jalen Milroe and Haynes King went fully nuclear against them this season. Leonard is one of the best and most experienced dual-threat QBs in all of college football, so that’s a major advantage for the Irish.

They’ve also got one of the more efficient backs in the country in Jeremiyah Love, who that has scored a TD in every single game and maintains a YPC of 7.4. We all wish he got major volume, but health issues have popped up recently that has the team treating him with kid gloves a bit. Leonard’s pass-catching weapons have been underwhelming but there is no denying the talent with names like Kris Mitchell, Beaux Collins and Mitchell Evans around. However, it’s Jordan Faison that emerged against Indiana last week. He was targeted 10 times and turned that into 7 receptions for 89 yards. There has been a lot of coachspeak regarding how good he can be, and he finally showed it at the right time.

Georgia will be without Carson Beck, which you know by now, as he deals with an injury and has also declared for the draft. With Gunner Stockton under center, the Bulldogs will obviously lean on the running game, which is now healthy with Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier. The Irish are used to dominating line play but UGA is just as tough, so it’ll be fascinating to see that chess match play out in real time. The Bulldogs receivers have been nearly impossible to peg on a week-to-week basis, and they’ll likely be ignored by the masses, which puts them in a position of leverage for those playing large-field DFS contests.

Give me Notre Dame and a legacy performance from Riley Leonard.

DFS Targets

Riley Leonard
Jordan Faison
Jeremiyah Love
Trevor Etienne
Nate Frazier

Best Bets

Notre Dame ML (-110, FanDuel)
Riley Leonard Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Jordan Faison Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Gator Bowl

Duke vs. Ole Miss

Ole Miss -17, O/U 50.5

Both teams are dealing with opt-outs and injuries, which makes this game somewhat difficult to decipher. It also doesn’t help that Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin is notoriously secretive with the status of his players.

The Blue Devils will be without QB Maalik Murphy and RB Star Thomas, both of whom decided to transfer. Backup QB Grayson Loftis has also headed for the portal, so the team will be thin at the position for this matchup. Head coach Manny Diaz and his staff have landed star QB Darian Mensah from Tulane, but he obviously can’t take part in this game.

The Rebels will be without WR Tre Harris (Opt-out), RB Rashad Amos (transfer), WR Henry Parrish (injury), backup QB Walker Howard (transfer) and WR Micah Davis (transfer).

Henry Belin IV will start at quarterback and has only thrown one pass the entire season. This could get ugly very quickly. At RB, the bulk of the carries will likely go to Jaquez Moore, but he has been dealing with a leg injury for most of the year and only recently got back. He rushed for 41 yards on 9 carries and also caught one pass for 3 yards in a Week 14 win over Wake Forest. Peyton Jones is considered questionable today after picking up an injury in their last game of the year.

Duke has a solid group of pass catchers in Eli Pancol (55-741-9), Jordan Moore (50-798-7) and Sahmir Hagans (42-385-3). Tight end Jake Taylor caught 5 passes for 40 yards against Wake Forest and could be somewhat of a sneakier option as Belin will probably utilize him more for “safer” completions.

Jaxson Dart will be entering the NFL draft but has been adamant about playing in the Gator Bowl. You have to wonder if he will sit out after halftime in a similar fashion to Miami’s Cam Ward. It will be a committee at RB, but it’s been nearly impossible to predict which back will be the most productive on a week-to-week basis. Kiffin fancies himself as a troll unfortunately and seems to put guys in the doghouse on a whim. Ulysses Bentley is the most experienced back remaining but it’s tough to say if he will get a heavy workload like he did against Mississippi State. He toted the rock 20 times in that game but had less than 6 in three of his last four before that. Dom Thomas is the other back expected to get work while Matt Jones has decided to leave the program.

Cayden Lee (49-817-2), Jordan Watkins (42-726-7), Dae’Quan Wright (24-321-3) and Caden Prieskorn (24-375-3) are the most relevant pass-catchers remaining when it comes to fantasy purposes.

While I do think Ole Miss takes care of business and wins this game, I’m less sure about their motivation for what amounts to a glorified exhibition for them. We have been profitable staying away from larger spreads during Bowl SZN so I’m going to target the total instead. Specifically, Duke’s team total. The Blue Devils simply don’t have the personnel on offense to consistently put points on the board today even if Ole Miss isn’t particularly engaged for all 4 quarters.