Bowl Slate Preview (Jan. 10)

We were treated to an instant classic Thursday night in the Orange Bowl, with Notre Dame eking out a 27-24 victory over Penn State. I’ve designated the Irish as the “team of destiny,” and that once again appeared to be the case in the semifinals. 

Now it’s time to move our focus to the Cotton Bowl between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns. The winner moves on to the championship against Notre Dame, and the loser will be left wondering what could have been as they wipe away confetti from their brow. 

I will break down the top DFS targets for the Cotton Bowl while also providing you with any advantageous bets as well. Let’s dig in and look at every aspect of this last semifinal matchup.

Cotton Bowl (CFB Playoffs Semifinal)

Ohio State vs. Texas

Ohio State -6, O/U 52.5

The Buckeyes served up a cold dish of revenge in a 41-21 dismantling of the Oregon Ducks last round, and it was easily the best game of Will Howard’s career. He threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns while putting on a masterclass for the nation to see. Stud frosh Jeremiah Smith was elite as usual, with 7 receptions for 187 yards and 2 scores. Additionally, TreVeyon Henderson has been unleashed in the playoffs and looks truly unstoppable right now. 

OSU is playing their best football at exactly the right time, and it’s hard to imagine them not being in the championship game at this point. Anything can happen obviously, but the Buckeyes look like the right side. 

The Longhorn defense has been strong this season, but it’s worth noting that they did have a somewhat favorable schedule. They’ve only faced two receivers in the SEC’s top 10 for receiving yards and haven’t faced a top-20 passing team this year, Georgia being the closest at 22nd. Ohio State is fourth in that passing metric, so needless to say, this will be Texas’ toughest challenge yet. Containing Smith won’t be easy, and very few teams have figured it out — he is sixth in the country in receiving yards with 1,224.

If Texas does put extra attention on Smith, the Buckeyes can simply turn to Emeka Egbuka, a player who has almost 900 receiving yards. They’ve also got Carnell Tate, the WR3 who has a stat line of 43-611-4 that is better than some WR1s out there.

We can look to Texas and their first-round win over Clemson as a potential preview of what’s to come. In that game, they gave up 336 yards and 3 TDs to Tigers QB Cade Klubnik. They mostly contained explosive freshman Bryant Wesco in that game, which led to WR3 TJ Moore going for 9-116-1. That was one of the deepest receiving rooms Texas has faced this season, and things don’t get any easier here against the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s running back room doesn’t get as much attention as the passing game these days, but Henderson has been massive in the playoffs thus far. Across two playoff games, he has rushed for 174 yards and 4 TDs while catching 7 passes for 74 yards. Most of the season, it really seemed like Henderson wasn’t 100% healthy, as the team wasn’t using him as much as we expected, but they’re turning him loose with a title on the line, and it’s made the team even more dangerous.

We also can’t forget about the fact that they have Quinshon Judkins, a violent runner who can help wear down this Texas defense in a similar manner that we saw from Cam Skattebo last week.

For Texas, Quinn Ewers showed up in the win over ASU with 322 passing yards and 3 TDs. He will have to be just as good if not better in order to get the Longhorns to the title game. There is a bit of a distraction going on with tampering rumors regarding Ewers’ future in the program or the NFL, but they’ll have to shake those off to focus on the task at hand. 

Furthermore, Texas averaged less than 3 yards per carry against ASU and Ohio State’s defense is top five in the country in EPA per rush. They’ve locked up just about every running back group they’ve faced this year so even more pressure falls upon Ewers shoulders. If that wasn’t enough, OSU has the highest sack rate in the FBS so quick hitters will be key to the passing game. This makes tight end Gunnar Helm extremely valuable for a matchup like this. Helm had a quiet first half against ASU but caught what amounted to be the game winning TD in overtime. Helm has been a baby blanket of sorts for Ewers all year which has resulted in 58 receptions for 744 yards and 7 TDs for the TE.

Matthew Golden has been fantastic this season with 56-936-9, but unders may be the move in the prop market. Oregon’s WR1 Tez Johnson managed just 5 catches for 32 yards against Ohio State. The Ducks TE Terrance Ferguson had more success with 71 receiving yards and secondary option Traeshon Holden had a big game, 7-116-2. Gunnar Helm and DeAndre Moore are going to be very important.

Digging deeper, the game will likely be determined by line play. In two losses to Georgia, the Longhorns offensive line gave up 13 combined sacks. That pressure caused Ewers to throw 3 interceptions in those two games. That accounts for nearly 30% of his total interceptions this year alone. 

The OSU defensive front has racked up 12 sacks in their two playoffs games and are feeling themselves coming into the semifinals. Texas ranks third worst in the nation in pressure rate allowed. This factors in the number of times the opposing defense makes a stop behind the line of scrimmage. Texas is woefully allowing this to happen an average of 7 times per game. As my oldest son would say, “yikes.” 

I believe we are destined for a Notre Dame vs. Ohio State championship game and contrary to what a lot of media pundits say, this would be one of the most competitive matchups of the season. Either way, we are in for a treat and both teams should put on a show, but ultimately the Buckeyes come out on top.

DFS Targets

Will Howard
TreVeyon Henderson
Quinshon Judkins
Jeremiah Smith
Emeka Egbuka
Gunnar Helm
DeAndre Moore
Quinn Ewers

Best Bets

Ohio State ML (-230, DraftKings)
Tre Henderson Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Gunnar Helm Over 3.5 Receptions (-114, FanDuel)
Will Howard Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Quinn Ewers Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Ohio State Over 29.5 Total Points/Team Total (-118, FanDuel)