Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN Power Rankings.
Indiana Hoosiers
AP Ranking: 13
FTN Power Ranking: 15
Change: +6
Head coach Curt Cignetti warned us in his opening press conference, “I win. Google me.” He is a perfect 7-0 on the season after a 56-7 destruction of Nebraska. The Hoosiers offense has scored 41 or more points in six straight games, and senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke has 17 total touchdowns with just 3 interceptions. Can the Hoosiers survive with Rourke out indefinitely due to a thumb injury? While backup Tayven Jackson may be able to guide Indiana in the short term, there are some critical battles coming up where the Hoosiers will need a healthy Rourke. Indiana moved up six additional spots but now enters the most difficult stretch of its season: Washington, at Michigan State, Michigan, at Ohio State and home to Purdue. Regardless, it’s been an incredible season for Indiana, who opened the year at No. 74 in our FTN Power Rankings.
South Carolina Gamecocks
AP Ranking: NR
FTN Power Ranking: 20
Change: +43
Despite a 4-3 overall record, the Gamecocks blasted up 23 spots after a 35-9 blowout win at Oklahoma. South Carolina is in the midst of one of the most difficult schedules in the country, having lost to No. 16 LSU 36-33, No. 12 Ole Miss 27-23 and No. 7 Alabama 27-25 before the huge win over the Sooners. Things do not get any easier for the Gamecocks after their bye week when they host No. 14 Texas A&M, travel to No. 25 Vanderbilt before hosting No. 21 Missouri. South Carolina has been on a rollercoaster after starting the year at No. 51 in our FTN Power Rankings.
Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Ranking: 4
FTN Power Ranking: 1
Change: +1
The Buckeyes are the new No. 1 atop the FTN Power Rankings, despite enjoying their bye week. They ascend to the top spot even after Georgia’s 30-15 win at Texas. We had Texas behind Ohio State and Georgia, but the Buckeyes rate out higher, with their only loss coming by one point at No. 3 Oregon last Saturday night.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
AP Ranking: 12
FTN Power Ranking: 8
Change: +2
Notre Dame easily disposed of Georgia Tech, 31-13, setting them up for a colossal home matchup with No. 24 Navy this Saturday. We moved up the Fighting Irish two spots to No. 8 overall, with their only blemish a head-scratching 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois on September 7. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are both averaging over 6.0 yards per carry as a running back duo.
Wisconsin Badgers
AP Ranking: NR
FTN Power Ranking: 21
Change: +13
Wisconsin has turned its season around, winning three straight matchups after consecutive losses against No. 4 Alabama and at No. 13 USC. The Badgers have outscored their opponents 117-16 during that time, adding this past weekend’s 23-3 win at Northwestern. They now host undefeated No. 3 Penn State on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m.
