Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
College Football is back! Every week I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings.
The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN Power Rankings.
Texas
AP Ranking: 2
FTN Power Ranking: 3
Change: +6
We jumped Texas six full spots to No. 3 overall after the Longhorns’ 31-12 drubbing of Michigan at the Big House. Junior quarterback Quinn Ewers threw three touchdowns, as Texas was up 31-6 entering the fourth quarter. Texas should continue to roll the next three weeks with consecutive home games against UTSA, UL Monroe and Mississippi State before massive clashes against No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 1 Georgia. The Longhorns are currently No. 1 in the AP poll, receiving four first-place votes.
LSU
AP Ranking: 16
FTN Power Ranking: 11
Change: +5
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw for six touchdowns as the Tigers routed Nicholls State 44-21. It was a nice bounceback for LSU, still frustrated with the 27-20 upset loss to USC in the Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic. The Tigers need to keep the momentum with a road game at South Carolina and matchup with UCLA over the next two weeks. LSU is up five spots to No. 11 in our FTN Power Rankings.
Ole Miss
AP Ranking: 5
FTN Power Ranking: 7
Change: +8
We were clearly too low on Ole Miss, which has now seen an eight-spot meteoric rise in our Power Rankings to No. 7 overall. The Rebels’ 52-3 destruction of Middle Tennessee State came on the heels of an opening-week 76-0 blitzing of Furman. Head coach Lane Kiffin guides Ole Miss to a road matchup at Wake Forest on Saturday.
Notre Dame
AP Ranking: 18
FTN Power Ranking: 9
Change: -3
The Irish only dropped three spots after an embarrassing 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois. Senior quarterback Riley Leonard threw two interceptions, and Notre Dame must find a way to rally against in-state rival Purdue in a tough road matchup this weekend. The Irish only dropped three spots after their impressive road victory at Texas A&M in Week 1.
Louisville
AP Ranking: 19
FTN Power Ranking: 16
Change: +8
One of the biggest risers is the Louisville Cardinals, who have outscored their opponents 111-14 through two weeks. Senior quarterback Tyler Shough has six touchdowns and no interceptions and is balanced by a trio of running backs with over 100 rushing yards. The Cardinals are on bye this week before two statement games against Georgia Tech and at Notre Dame.
Michigan
AP Ranking: 17
FTN Power Ranking: 18
Change: -10
What a difference a year makes. The Wolverines were never competitive in the 31-12 home loss to Texas and now have a (hopefully) get-right game against Arkansas State before No. 11 USC comes to Ann Arbor. Their shaky opening win over Fresno State looks even less impressive after the Bulldogs allowed 30 points to Sacramento State this weekend. The Wolverines plummeted 10 spots to No 18 on our FTN Power Rankings.
