2024 College Football Power Rankings After Week 16

Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games. 

We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.

Let’s take a quick look at where things stand with the FTN Power Rankings as we prepare for the first-ever College Football Playoffs on December 20!

Ohio State Buckeyes

College Football Playoffs Seed: 8
FTN Power Ranking: 1

Our FTN Betting Model will continue to project the Buckeyes as the betting favorite throughout the College Football Playoffs. They will host Tennessee on Saturday afternoon in Columbus, but we agree with the current betting line of Ohio State -7.5. Our numbers project the Buckeyes as a seven-point favorite over our current eighth-seeded Volunteers. Tennessee is currently receiving the majority of bets from the public, who are clearly skewed by the Buckeyes’ season-ending 13-10 home loss to unranked Michigan. If the Buckeyes defeat Tennessee, we actually project them as a two-point favorite over No. 1 Oregon for a rematch in the neutral-site Rose Bowl. 

Texas Longhorns

College Football Playoffs Seed: 5
FTN Power Ranking: 2

The Longhorns have a much easier path to the semifinals, hosting No. 12 Clemson before a potential neutral-site battle with No. 4 Arizona State at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta. By losing in overtime to No. 2 Georgia in the SEC Championship game, the Longhorns lost an opening-round bye but still have a good draw in the postseason. We have Texas as our overall No. 2 team in our FTN Power Rankings and concur on its current spot as overwhelming 11.5-point favorites at home over No. 12 Clemson. 

Penn State Nittany Lions

College Football Playoffs Seed: 6
FTN Power Ranking: 7

Penn State fought valiantly in its 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship but now has a tricky game against No. 11 SMU. The current line of Penn State -8.5 shows slight value, compared to our projection of Penn State -4 on a neutral field. Playing at home will be a huge advantage for the Nittany Lions, who we would project as a double-digit favorite over No. 3 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

College Football Playoffs Seed: 7
FTN Power Ranking: 6

The Irish are the No. 7 seed in the College Football Playoffs, which is almost identical to our power rankings spot at No. 6. Notre Dame is a healthy 7.5-point home favorite over Indiana, which is three points more than we would project on a neutral field. Despite a home loss to Northern Illinois on September 7, the Irish have reeled off 10 straight wins. Indiana is currently receiving the majority of bets from the public.

Be sure to check out our other college football betting tools: 

• CFB Betting Model
• CFB Bet Tracker & Expert Picks
• CFB Playoff Simulations