2024 College Football Power Rankings After Week 15

Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.

We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.

Let’s take a quick look at where things stand with the FTN Power Rankings as we speed toward the College Football Playoffs on December 20.

Ohio State Buckeyes

College Football Playoffs Seed: 8
FTN Power Ranking: 1

Ohio State’s surprising 13-10 home loss to Michigan has created betting value in the college football market. Our FTN Power Rankings still have the Buckeyes as our top team, projecting Ohio State to be favored on a neutral field against every other team.  Currently, the No. 6 Buckeyes are favored by 7.5 points against No. 7 Tennessee, which is consistent with our projections. We have Ohio State seven spots higher than the Volunteers. If the Buckeyes win that game, we actually project them as a two-point favorite over No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl. 

Penn State Nittany Lions

College Football Playoffs Seed: 6
FTN Power Ranking: 7

Penn State dropped three spots to No. 7 overall in our power rankings after its loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. The criticism continues about head coach James Franklin, who is now a lofty 8.5-point favorite over No. 10 SMU in the College Football Playoffs. We see value on SMU, which rose one spot to No. 11 overall after its hard-fought 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship. We project Penn State as only a four-point favorite over the Mustangs. 

Oregon Ducks

College Football Playoffs Seed: 1
FTN Power Ranking: 3

Oregon is the No. 1 team in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoffs but third in our FTN Power Rankings. As mentioned above, the more compelling second-round matchup is a battle with Ohio State. If the Ducks get through that contest, their road to the championship becomes much easier given the teams in the bottom of their bracket.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

College Football Playoffs Seed: 7
FTN Power Ranking: 6

The Irish are the No. 7 seed in the College Football Playoffs, which is almost identical to our power rankings spot. Notre Dame is a healthy 7.5-point favorite over Indiana, which is three points more than we project here at FTN. Despite a home loss to Northern Illinois on September 7, the Irish have reeled off 10 straight wins.

Be sure to check out our other college football betting tools: 

• CFB Betting Model
• CFB Bet Tracker & Expert Picks
• CFB Playoff Simulations