2024 College Football Power Rankings After Week 13

Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.

We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.

Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN Power Rankings.

Conference:

Team	Conference	Record	Proj W-L	Current Rank	Previous	Week Diff	Preseason	Pre Diff
Ohio State	BIG10	10 - 1	10.9 - 1.1	1	1	-	2	+1
Texas	SEC	10 - 1	10.7 - 1.3	2	2	-	8	+6
Penn State	BIG10	10 - 1	10.9 - 1.1	3	4	+1	3	-
Oregon	BIG10	11 - 0	11.8 - 0.2	4	6	+2	6	+2
Georgia	SEC	9 - 2	9.8 - 2.2	5	3	-2	1	-4
Notre Dame	IND	10 - 1	10.7 - 1.3	6	8	+2	7	+1
Alabama	SEC	8 - 3	8.7 - 3.3	7	5	-2	5	-2
Tennessee	SEC	9 - 2	9.8 - 2.2	8	9	+1	11	+3
Ole Miss	SEC	8 - 3	8.9 - 3.1	9	7	-2	16	+7
South Carolina	SEC	8 - 3	8.5 - 3.5	10	14	+4	51	+41
Clemson	ACC	9 - 2	9.5 - 2.5	11	10	-1	10	-1
Indiana	BIG10	10 - 1	10.9 - 1.1	12	11	-1	74	+62
Texas A&M	SEC	8 - 3	8.3 - 3.7	13	12	-1	14	+1
SMU	ACC	10 - 1	10.7 - 1.3	14	16	+2	32	+18
LSU	SEC	7 - 4	7.6 - 4.4	15	15	-	15	-
Miami FL	ACC	10 - 1	10.7 - 1.3	16	13	-3	25	+9
Florida	SEC	6 - 5	6.9 - 5.1	17	22	+5	29	+12
Auburn	SEC	5 - 6	5.3 - 6.7	18	24	+6	20	+2
Louisville	ACC	7 - 4	7.7 - 4.3	19	23	+4	23	+4
USC	BIG10	6 - 5	6.3 - 5.7	20	20	-	24	+4
Iowa	BIG10	7 - 4	7.6 - 4.4	21	18	-3	42	+21
Oklahoma	SEC	6 - 5	6.4 - 5.6	22	27	+5	9	-13
Kansas State	BIG12	8 - 3	8.5 - 3.5	23	21	-2	18	-5
Iowa State	BIG12	9 - 2	9.5 - 2.5	24	25	+1	46	+22
Colorado	BIG12	8 - 3	8.7 - 3.3	25	17	-8	75	+50
Arizona State	BIG12	9 - 2	9.7 - 2.3	26	29	+3	89	+63
Missouri	SEC	8 - 3	8.5 - 3.5	27	36	+9	12	-15
Tulane	AMER	9 - 2	9.7 - 2.3	28	19	-9	58	+30
Arkansas	SEC	6 - 5	6.5 - 5.5	29	26	-3	43	+14
TCU	BIG12	7 - 4	7.6 - 4.4	30	37	+7	38	+8
Kansas	BIG12	5 - 6	5.5 - 6.5	31	30	-1	50	+19
Minnesota	BIG10	6 - 5	6.5 - 5.5	32	34	+2	52	+20
Nebraska	BIG10	6 - 5	6.4 - 5.6	33	39	+6	49	+16
BYU	BIG12	9 - 2	9.8 - 2.2	34	35	+1	86	+52
UCF	BIG12	4 - 7	4.7 - 7.3	35	33	-2	45	+10
Boise State	MWST	10 - 1	10.8 - 1.2	36	28	-8	34	-2
Wisconsin	BIG10	5 - 6	5.5 - 6.5	37	31	-6	30	-7
Washington	BIG10	6 - 5	6.2 - 5.8	38	40	+2	13	-25
Baylor	BIG12	7 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	39	47	+8	76	+37
Georgia Tech	ACC	7 - 4	7.2 - 4.8	40	41	+1	53	+13
Michigan	BIG10	6 - 5	6.1 - 5.9	41	46	+5	4	-37
Virginia Tech	ACC	5 - 6	5.6 - 6.4	42	32	-10	35	-7
Kentucky	SEC	4 - 7	4.3 - 7.7	43	38	-5	22	-21
Vanderbilt	SEC	6 - 5	6.2 - 5.8	44	45	+1	96	+52
California	ACC	6 - 5	6.3 - 5.7	45	44	-1	77	+32
Texas Tech	BIG12	7 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	46	53	+7	28	-18
West Virginia	BIG12	6 - 5	6.5 - 5.5	47	43	-4	31	-16
Duke	ACC	8 - 3	8.7 - 3.3	48	59	+11	39	-9
UNLV	MWST	9 - 2	9.8 - 2.2	49	50	+1	70	+21
Illinois	BIG10	8 - 3	8.8 - 3.2	50	52	+2	56	+6
Cincinnati	BIG12	5 - 6	5.4 - 6.6	51	48	-3	41	-10
UCLA	BIG10	4 - 7	4.7 - 7.3	52	54	+2	44	-8
Boston College	ACC	6 - 5	6.5 - 5.5	53	65	+12	68	+15
Syracuse	ACC	8 - 3	8.3 - 3.7	54	58	+4	61	+7
Pittsburgh	ACC	7 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	55	42	-13	54	-1
North Carolina	ACC	6 - 5	7.1 - 5.9	56	51	-5	33	-23
Rutgers	BIG10	6 - 5	6.5 - 5.5	57	56	-1	82	+25
Virginia	ACC	5 - 6	5.4 - 6.6	58	55	-3	81	+23
Maryland	BIG10	4 - 7	4.1 - 7.9	59	60	+1	40	-19
North Carolina State	ACC	5 - 6	5.5 - 6.5	60	63	+3	36	-24
Army	AMER	9 - 1	10.2 - 1.8	61	49	-12	109	+48
Utah	BIG12	4 - 7	4.3 - 7.7	62	66	+4	17	-45
Texas State	SBELT	6 - 5	6.6 - 5.4	63	57	-6	87	+24
Mississippi State	SEC	2 - 9	2.1 - 9.9	64	69	+5	47	-17
Michigan State	BIG10	5 - 6	5.5 - 6.5	65	62	-3	79	+14
Oklahoma State	BIG12	3 - 8	3.3 - 8.7	66	64	-2	26	-40
Washington State	PAC12	8 - 3	8.8 - 3.2	67	68	+1	37	-30
Memphis	AMER	9 - 2	9.3 - 2.7	68	76	+8	59	-9
Arizona	BIG12	4 - 7	4.3 - 7.7	69	61	-8	27	-42
Louisiana	SBELT	9 - 2	9.8 - 2.2	70	71	+1	78	+8
South Alabama	SBELT	6 - 5	6.4 - 5.6	71	77	+6	66	-5
Liberty	CUSA	8 - 2	9.3 - 2.7	72	79	+7	64	-8
Navy	AMER	7 - 3	8.0 - 4.0	73	75	+2	110	+37
James Madison	SBELT	8 - 3	8.5 - 3.5	74	67	-7	55	-19
Miami OH	MAC	7 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	75	74	-1	99	+24
Marshall	SBELT	8 - 3	8.5 - 3.5	76	80	+4	73	-3
Wake Forest	ACC	4 - 7	4.7 - 8.3	77	70	-7	57	-20
Bowling Green	MAC	7 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	78	78	-	121	+43
UTSA	AMER	6 - 5	6.4 - 5.6	79	90	+11	48	-31
Fresno State	MWST	6 - 5	6.3 - 5.7	80	73	-7	71	-9
Houston	BIG12	4 - 7	4.2 - 7.8	81	72	-9	69	-12
Connecticut	IND	7 - 4	7.8 - 4.2	82	96	+14	122	+40
Jacksonville State	CUSA	8 - 3	8.5 - 3.5	83	83	-	93	+10
South Florida	AMER	6 - 5	6.7 - 5.3	84	94	+10	91	+7
Western Kentucky	CUSA	7 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	85	82	-3	90	+5
New Mexico	MWST	5 - 6	5.6 - 6.4	86	81	-5	100	+14
Colorado State	MWST	7 - 4	7.6 - 4.4	87	86	-1	104	+17
San Jose State	MWST	6 - 5	6.5 - 5.5	88	89	+1	72	-16
Stanford	ACC	3 - 8	3.5 - 8.5	89	97	+8	85	-4
Ohio	MAC	8 - 3	8.8 - 3.2	90	95	+5	84	-6
Old Dominion	SBELT	4 - 7	4.6 - 7.4	91	87	-4	108	+17
East Carolina	AMER	7 - 4	7.4 - 4.6	92	93	+1	94	+2
Northern Illinois	MAC	6 - 5	6.7 - 5.3	93	84	-9	112	+19
North Texas	AMER	5 - 6	5.7 - 6.3	94	91	-3	80	-14
Toledo	MAC	7 - 4	7.7 - 4.3	95	92	-3	67	-28
Air Force	MWST	4 - 7	4.7 - 7.3	96	109	+13	63	-33
Florida State	ACC	2 - 9	2.1 - 9.9	97	88	-9	21	-76
Appalachian State	SBELT	5 - 5	5.9 - 6.1	98	99	+1	65	-33
Sam Houston	CUSA	8 - 3	8.4 - 3.6	99	85	-14	127	+28
Utah State	MWST	4 - 7	4.4 - 7.6	100	100	-	117	+17
Georgia Southern	SBELT	7 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	101	102	+1	83	-18
Northwestern	BIG10	4 - 7	4.2 - 7.8	102	98	-4	97	-5
Oregon State	PAC12	5 - 6	5.2 - 6.8	103	106	+3	19	-84
Purdue	BIG10	1 - 10	1.1 - 10.9	104	107	+3	60	-44
Hawaii	MWST	4 - 7	4.4 - 7.6	105	105	-	113	+8
Nevada	MWST	3 - 9	3.2 - 9.8	106	104	-2	123	+17
Coastal Carolina	SBELT	5 - 6	5.6 - 6.4	107	103	-4	95	-12
Troy	SBELT	3 - 8	3.8 - 8.2	108	108	-	62	-46
Arkansas State	SBELT	7 - 4	7.4 - 4.6	109	111	+2	102	-7
Rice	AMER	3 - 8	3.3 - 8.7	110	101	-9	103	-7
Georgia State	SBELT	3 - 8	3.4 - 8.6	111	116	+5	107	-4
Western Michigan	MAC	5 - 6	5.6 - 6.4	112	110	-2	115	+3
Wyoming	MWST	2 - 9	2.2 - 9.8	113	117	+4	98	-15
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	4 - 7	4.7 - 7.3	114	113	-1	118	+4
Charlotte	AMER	4 - 7	4.5 - 7.5	115	114	-1	116	+1
UAB	AMER	3 - 8	3.5 - 8.5	116	122	+6	88	-28
FIU	CUSA	3 - 8	3.6 - 8.4	117	115	-2	133	+16
San Diego State	MWST	3 - 8	3.3 - 8.7	118	112	-6	106	-12
Louisiana Monroe	SBELT	5 - 6	5.2 - 6.8	119	118	-1	128	+9
Buffalo	MAC	7 - 4	7.9 - 4.1	120	119	-1	119	-1
Florida Atlantic	AMER	2 - 9	2.6 - 9.4	121	123	+2	105	-16
Eastern Michigan	MAC	5 - 6	5.4 - 6.6	122	120	-2	124	+2
Central Michigan	MAC	4 - 7	4.3 - 7.7	123	129	+6	120	-3
Temple	AMER	3 - 8	3.3 - 8.7	124	124	-	125	+1
UMass	IND	2 - 9	2.2 - 9.8	125	125	-	129	+4
Ball State	MAC	3 - 8	3.2 - 8.8	126	121	-5	126	-
Akron	MAC	3 - 8	3.3 - 8.7	127	126	-1	131	+4
New Mexico State	CUSA	3 - 8	3.5 - 8.5	128	131	+3	92	-36
UTEP	CUSA	2 - 9	2.5 - 9.5	129	130	+1	130	+1
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	3 - 8	3.4 - 8.6	130	127	-3	114	-16
Tulsa	AMER	3 - 8	3.4 - 8.6	131	128	-3	111	-20
Kennesaw State	CUSA	2 - 9	2.3 - 9.7	132	133	+1	134	+2
Southern Miss	SBELT	1 - 10	1.2 - 10.8	133	132	-1	101	-32
Kent State	MAC	0 - 11	0.1 - 11.9	134	134	-	132	-2
	Conference

Key Takeaways

Ohio State Buckeyes

AP Ranking: 2
FTN Power Ranking: 1
Change: None

Ohio State validated its spot atop our FTN Power Rankings with a 38-15 blowout of No. 5 Indiana. The only blemish on the Buckeyes’ resume is a one-point loss at Oregon. Ohio State carries the highest probability of winning the College Football Playoff, per our CFP Simulations, climbing two percentage points to 32.7%. The Buckeyes have been our top team in college football for most of the season and would be favored on a neutral field over any other team per our projections.

Penn State Nittany Lions

AP Ranking: 4
FTN Power Ranking: 3
Change: +4

Penn State survived with a 26-25 victory at Minnesota, maintaining its ranking in the AP poll while climbing one spot in our FTN Power Rankings. A knee injury to starting offensive tackle Anthony Donkoh will hurt the Nittany Lions moving forward, as Penn State is only projected with an 8.7% chance of winning the College Football Playoffs, per our simulations. Penn State ends the regular season hosting Maryland on Saturday.

Oregon Ducks

AP Ranking: 1
FTN Power Ranking: 4
Change: +2

Oregon passed a huge test last week, rallying from seven points down in the fourth quarter to win at Wisconsin 16-13. But this result illustrates our concerns with the top-ranked Ducks, who reside at only No. 4 in our FTN Power Rankings. The Ducks did rise two spots after this win, but we assign Oregon only a 12.3% chance of winning the College Football Playoffs, third-best behind both Ohio State and Texas.

Indiana Hoosiers

AP Ranking: 10
FTN Power Ranking: 12
Change: -1

Indiana only fell one spot to No. 12 overall after the loss to Ohio State, mainly because we were strong on our position that the Hoosiers were underrated by the market. Indiana has seen a remarkable turnaround under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, but we project the Hoosiers to be underdogs to 11 potential opponents in the College Football Playoffs. Assuming Indiana rolls Purdue this weekend, the Hoosiers will have their chance to silence the critics. We give Indiana only a 1% chance of winning the National Championship.

Check out some more interesting CFB Information on ftnfantasy.com.