2024 College Football Power Rankings After Week 13

Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games. 

We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.

Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN Power Rankings.

Key Takeaways

Ohio State Buckeyes

AP Ranking: 2
FTN Power Ranking: 1
Change: None

Ohio State validated its spot atop our FTN Power Rankings with a 38-15 blowout of No. 5 Indiana. The only blemish on the Buckeyes’ resume is a one-point loss at Oregon. Ohio State carries the highest probability of winning the College Football Playoff, per our CFP Simulations, climbing two percentage points to 32.7%. The Buckeyes have been our top team in college football for most of the season and would be favored on a neutral field over any other team per our projections. 

Penn State Nittany Lions

AP Ranking: 4
FTN Power Ranking: 3
Change: +4

Penn State survived with a 26-25 victory at Minnesota, maintaining its ranking in the AP poll while climbing one spot in our FTN Power Rankings. A knee injury to starting offensive tackle Anthony Donkoh will hurt the Nittany Lions moving forward, as Penn State is only projected with an 8.7% chance of winning the College Football Playoffs, per our simulations. Penn State ends the regular season hosting Maryland on Saturday.  

Oregon Ducks

AP Ranking: 1
FTN Power Ranking: 4
Change: +2

Oregon passed a huge test last week, rallying from seven points down in the fourth quarter to win at Wisconsin 16-13. But this result illustrates our concerns with the top-ranked Ducks, who reside at only No. 4 in our FTN Power Rankings. The Ducks did rise two spots after this win, but we assign Oregon only a 12.3% chance of winning the College Football Playoffs, third-best behind both Ohio State and Texas. 

Indiana Hoosiers

AP Ranking: 10
FTN Power Ranking: 12
Change: -1

Indiana only fell one spot to No. 12 overall after the loss to Ohio State, mainly because we were strong on our position that the Hoosiers were underrated by the market. Indiana has seen a remarkable turnaround under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, but we project the Hoosiers to be underdogs to 11 potential opponents in the College Football Playoffs. Assuming Indiana rolls Purdue this weekend, the Hoosiers will have their chance to silence the critics. We give Indiana only a 1% chance of winning the National Championship.

Check out some more interesting CFB Information on ftnfantasy.com.

• CFB Betting Model
• CFB Bet Tracker & Expert Picks
• CFB Playoff Simulations