Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.
We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN Power Rankings.
| Team | Conference | Record | Proj W-L | Current Rank | Previous | Week Diff | Preseason | Pre Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | BIG10 | 9 - 1 | 10.7 - 1.3 | 1 | 1 | - | 2 | +1 |
| Texas | SEC | 9 - 1 | 10.6 - 1.4 | 2 | 2 | - | 8 | +6 |
| Georgia | SEC | 8 - 2 | 9.9 - 2.1 | 3 | 3 | - | 1 | -2 |
| Penn State | BIG10 | 9 - 1 | 10.7 - 1.3 | 4 | 8 | +4 | 3 | -1 |
| Alabama | SEC | 8 - 2 | 9.6 - 2.4 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 5 | - |
| Oregon | BIG10 | 11 - 0 | 11.8 - 0.2 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 6 | - |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 8 - 2 | 9.7 - 2.3 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 16 | +9 |
| Notre Dame | IND | 9 - 1 | 10.6 - 1.4 | 8 | 7 | -1 | 7 | -1 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 8 - 2 | 9.8 - 2.2 | 9 | 9 | - | 11 | +2 |
| Clemson | ACC | 8 - 2 | 9.6 - 2.4 | 10 | 10 | - | 10 | - |
| Indiana | BIG10 | 10 - 0 | 11.1 - 0.9 | 11 | 14 | +3 | 74 | +63 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8 - 2 | 8.9 - 3.1 | 12 | 13 | +1 | 14 | +2 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 9 - 1 | 10.6 - 1.4 | 13 | 12 | -1 | 25 | +12 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 7 - 3 | 8.4 - 3.6 | 14 | 15 | +1 | 51 | +37 |
| LSU | SEC | 6 - 4 | 7.3 - 4.7 | 15 | 11 | -4 | 15 | - |
| SMU | ACC | 9 - 1 | 10.4 - 1.6 | 16 | 17 | +1 | 32 | +16 |
| Colorado | BIG12 | 8 - 2 | 9.3 - 2.7 | 17 | 26 | +9 | 75 | +58 |
| Iowa | BIG10 | 6 - 4 | 7.3 - 4.7 | 18 | 19 | +1 | 42 | +24 |
| Tulane | AMER | 9 - 2 | 9.8 - 2.2 | 19 | 39 | +20 | 58 | +39 |
| USC | BIG10 | 5 - 5 | 5.9 - 6.1 | 20 | 16 | -4 | 24 | +4 |
| Kansas State | BIG12 | 7 - 3 | 8.1 - 3.9 | 21 | 18 | -3 | 18 | -3 |
| Florida | SEC | 5 - 5 | 6.1 - 5.9 | 22 | 27 | +5 | 29 | +7 |
| Louisville | ACC | 6 - 4 | 7.2 - 4.8 | 23 | 20 | -3 | 23 | - |
| Auburn | SEC | 4 - 6 | 4.6 - 7.4 | 24 | 23 | -1 | 20 | -4 |
| Iowa State | BIG12 | 8 - 2 | 9.2 - 2.8 | 25 | 22 | -3 | 46 | +21 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 5 - 5 | 6.4 - 5.6 | 26 | 24 | -2 | 43 | +17 |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 5 - 5 | 5.6 - 6.4 | 27 | 21 | -6 | 9 | -18 |
| Boise State | MWST | 9 - 1 | 10.8 - 1.2 | 28 | 33 | +5 | 34 | +6 |
| Arizona State | BIG12 | 8 - 2 | 9.2 - 2.8 | 29 | 37 | +8 | 89 | +60 |
| Kansas | BIG12 | 4 - 6 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 30 | 36 | +6 | 50 | +20 |
| Wisconsin | BIG10 | 5 - 5 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 31 | 28 | -3 | 30 | -1 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 5 - 5 | 6.3 - 5.7 | 32 | 30 | -2 | 35 | +3 |
| UCF | BIG12 | 4 - 6 | 5.2 - 6.8 | 33 | 35 | +2 | 45 | +12 |
| Minnesota | BIG10 | 6 - 4 | 6.6 - 5.4 | 34 | 29 | -5 | 52 | +18 |
| BYU | BIG12 | 9 - 1 | 10.2 - 1.8 | 35 | 25 | -10 | 86 | +51 |
| Missouri | SEC | 7 - 3 | 8.2 - 3.8 | 36 | 31 | -5 | 12 | -24 |
| TCU | BIG12 | 6 - 4 | 7.2 - 4.8 | 37 | 38 | +1 | 38 | +1 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 4 - 6 | 4.6 - 7.4 | 38 | 34 | -4 | 22 | -16 |
| Nebraska | BIG10 | 5 - 5 | 5.9 - 6.1 | 39 | 45 | +6 | 49 | +10 |
| Washington | BIG10 | 6 - 5 | 6.2 - 5.8 | 40 | 32 | -8 | 13 | -27 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 6 - 4 | 6.8 - 5.2 | 41 | 42 | +1 | 53 | +12 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 7 - 3 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 42 | 43 | +1 | 54 | +12 |
| West Virginia | BIG12 | 5 - 5 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 43 | 48 | +5 | 31 | -12 |
| California | ACC | 5 - 5 | 6.1 - 5.9 | 44 | 41 | -3 | 77 | +33 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 6 - 4 | 6.5 - 5.5 | 45 | 51 | +6 | 96 | +51 |
| Michigan | BIG10 | 5 - 5 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 46 | 44 | -2 | 4 | -42 |
| Baylor | BIG12 | 6 - 4 | 7.1 - 4.9 | 47 | 40 | -7 | 76 | +29 |
| Cincinnati | BIG12 | 5 - 5 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 48 | 47 | -1 | 41 | -7 |
| Army | AMER | 9 - 0 | 10.5 - 1.5 | 49 | 49 | - | 109 | +60 |
| UNLV | MWST | 8 - 2 | 9.5 - 2.5 | 50 | 50 | - | 70 | +20 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 6 - 4 | 7.2 - 4.8 | 51 | 46 | -5 | 33 | -18 |
| Illinois | BIG10 | 7 - 3 | 8.3 - 3.7 | 52 | 56 | +4 | 56 | +4 |
| Texas Tech | BIG12 | 6 - 4 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 53 | 55 | +2 | 28 | -25 |
| UCLA | BIG10 | 4 - 6 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 54 | 60 | +6 | 44 | -10 |
| Virginia | ACC | 5 - 5 | 5.6 - 6.4 | 55 | 57 | +2 | 81 | +26 |
| Rutgers | BIG10 | 6 - 4 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 56 | 67 | +11 | 82 | +26 |
| Texas State | SBELT | 6 - 4 | 7.4 - 4.6 | 57 | 70 | +13 | 87 | +30 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 7 - 3 | 7.9 - 4.1 | 58 | 58 | - | 61 | +3 |
| Duke | ACC | 7 - 3 | 7.9 - 4.1 | 59 | 61 | +2 | 39 | -20 |
| Maryland | BIG10 | 4 - 6 | 4.4 - 7.6 | 60 | 53 | -7 | 40 | -20 |
| Arizona | BIG12 | 4 - 6 | 4.7 - 7.3 | 61 | 62 | +1 | 27 | -34 |
| Michigan State | BIG10 | 4 - 6 | 5.2 - 6.8 | 62 | 59 | -3 | 79 | +17 |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 5 - 5 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 63 | 68 | +5 | 36 | -27 |
| Oklahoma State | BIG12 | 3 - 7 | 3.7 - 8.3 | 64 | 69 | +5 | 26 | -38 |
| Boston College | ACC | 5 - 5 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 65 | 63 | -2 | 68 | +3 |
| Utah | BIG12 | 4 - 6 | 4.6 - 7.4 | 66 | 52 | -14 | 17 | -49 |
| James Madison | SBELT | 8 - 2 | 9.3 - 2.7 | 67 | 66 | -1 | 55 | -12 |
| Washington State | PAC12 | 8 - 2 | 9.5 - 2.5 | 68 | 54 | -14 | 37 | -31 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 2 - 8 | 2.4 - 9.6 | 69 | 71 | +2 | 47 | -22 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4 - 6 | 4.6 - 7.4 | 70 | 75 | +5 | 57 | -13 |
| Louisiana | SBELT | 8 - 2 | 9.5 - 2.5 | 71 | 65 | -6 | 78 | +7 |
| Houston | BIG12 | 4 - 6 | 4.6 - 7.4 | 72 | 72 | - | 69 | -3 |
| Fresno State | MWST | 5 - 5 | 5.9 - 6.1 | 73 | 73 | - | 71 | -2 |
| Miami OH | MAC | 6 - 4 | 7.1 - 4.9 | 74 | 81 | +7 | 99 | +25 |
| Navy | AMER | 7 - 3 | 7.9 - 4.1 | 75 | 64 | -11 | 110 | +35 |
| Memphis | AMER | 9 - 2 | 9.2 - 2.8 | 76 | 78 | +2 | 59 | -17 |
| South Alabama | SBELT | 5 - 5 | 6.3 - 5.7 | 77 | 89 | +12 | 66 | -11 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 6 - 4 | 7.2 - 4.8 | 78 | 77 | -1 | 121 | +43 |
| Liberty | CUSA | 7 - 2 | 8.6 - 3.4 | 79 | 74 | -5 | 64 | -15 |
| Marshall | SBELT | 7 - 3 | 7.9 - 4.1 | 80 | 82 | +2 | 73 | -7 |
| New Mexico | MWST | 5 - 6 | 5.6 - 6.4 | 81 | 104 | +23 | 100 | +19 |
| Western Kentucky | CUSA | 7 - 3 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 82 | 79 | -3 | 90 | +8 |
| Jacksonville State | CUSA | 7 - 3 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 83 | 76 | -7 | 93 | +10 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 6 - 4 | 7.3 - 4.7 | 84 | 84 | - | 112 | +28 |
| Sam Houston | CUSA | 8 - 2 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 85 | 96 | +11 | 127 | +42 |
| Colorado State | MWST | 7 - 3 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 86 | 88 | +2 | 104 | +18 |
| Old Dominion | SBELT | 4 - 6 | 5.1 - 6.9 | 87 | 94 | +7 | 108 | +21 |
| Florida State | ACC | 1 - 9 | 2.2 - 9.8 | 88 | 85 | -3 | 21 | -67 |
| San Jose State | MWST | 6 - 4 | 6.8 - 5.2 | 89 | 83 | -6 | 72 | -17 |
| UTSA | AMER | 5 - 5 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 90 | 97 | +7 | 48 | -42 |
| North Texas | AMER | 5 - 5 | 6.3 - 5.7 | 91 | 80 | -11 | 80 | -11 |
| Toledo | MAC | 7 - 3 | 8.3 - 3.7 | 92 | 86 | -6 | 67 | -25 |
| East Carolina | AMER | 6 - 4 | 6.9 - 5.1 | 93 | 92 | -1 | 94 | +1 |
| South Florida | AMER | 5 - 5 | 6.3 - 5.7 | 94 | 91 | -3 | 91 | -3 |
| Ohio | MAC | 7 - 3 | 8.2 - 3.8 | 95 | 95 | - | 84 | -11 |
| Connecticut | IND | 7 - 3 | 8.1 - 3.9 | 96 | 93 | -3 | 122 | +26 |
| Stanford | ACC | 3 - 7 | 3.7 - 8.3 | 97 | 101 | +4 | 85 | -12 |
| Northwestern | BIG10 | 4 - 6 | 4.5 - 7.5 | 98 | 90 | -8 | 97 | -1 |
| Appalachian State | SBELT | 4 - 5 | 5.3 - 6.7 | 99 | 98 | -1 | 65 | -34 |
| Utah State | MWST | 3 - 7 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 100 | 107 | +7 | 117 | +17 |
| Rice | AMER | 3 - 7 | 4.1 - 7.9 | 101 | 105 | +4 | 103 | +2 |
| Georgia Southern | SBELT | 6 - 4 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 102 | 99 | -3 | 83 | -19 |
| Coastal Carolina | SBELT | 5 - 5 | 6.1 - 5.9 | 103 | 103 | - | 95 | -8 |
| Nevada | MWST | 3 - 8 | 3.7 - 9.3 | 104 | 106 | +2 | 123 | +19 |
| Hawaii | MWST | 4 - 7 | 4.4 - 7.6 | 105 | 102 | -3 | 113 | +8 |
| Oregon State | PAC12 | 4 - 6 | 4.4 - 7.6 | 106 | 87 | -19 | 19 | -87 |
| Purdue | BIG10 | 1 - 9 | 1.3 - 10.7 | 107 | 100 | -7 | 60 | -47 |
| Troy | SBELT | 3 - 7 | 4.1 - 7.9 | 108 | 113 | +5 | 62 | -46 |
| Air Force | MWST | 3 - 7 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 109 | 120 | +11 | 63 | -46 |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 5 - 5 | 6.3 - 5.7 | 110 | 109 | -1 | 115 | +5 |
| Arkansas State | SBELT | 6 - 4 | 6.9 - 5.1 | 111 | 108 | -3 | 102 | -9 |
| San Diego State | MWST | 3 - 7 | 3.9 - 8.1 | 112 | 110 | -2 | 106 | -6 |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 4 - 6 | 4.9 - 7.1 | 113 | 115 | +2 | 118 | +5 |
| Charlotte | AMER | 3 - 7 | 4.2 - 7.8 | 114 | 114 | - | 116 | +2 |
| FIU | CUSA | 3 - 7 | 4.5 - 7.5 | 115 | 121 | +6 | 133 | +18 |
| Georgia State | SBELT | 2 - 8 | 2.6 - 9.4 | 116 | 111 | -5 | 107 | -9 |
| Wyoming | MWST | 2 - 8 | 2.3 - 9.7 | 117 | 112 | -5 | 98 | -19 |
| Louisiana Monroe | SBELT | 5 - 5 | 5.7 - 6.3 | 118 | 117 | -1 | 128 | +10 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 6 - 4 | 7.4 - 4.6 | 119 | 118 | -1 | 119 | - |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 5 - 5 | 5.9 - 6.1 | 120 | 119 | -1 | 124 | +4 |
| Ball State | MAC | 3 - 7 | 3.5 - 8.5 | 121 | 129 | +8 | 126 | +5 |
| UAB | AMER | 2 - 8 | 2.7 - 9.3 | 122 | 122 | - | 88 | -34 |
| Florida Atlantic | AMER | 2 - 8 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 123 | 116 | -7 | 105 | -18 |
| Temple | AMER | 3 - 7 | 3.5 - 8.5 | 124 | 126 | +2 | 125 | +1 |
| UMass | IND | 2 - 8 | 2.3 - 9.7 | 125 | 128 | +3 | 129 | +4 |
| Akron | MAC | 2 - 8 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 126 | 124 | -2 | 131 | +5 |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 3 - 7 | 3.9 - 8.1 | 127 | 123 | -4 | 114 | -13 |
| Tulsa | AMER | 3 - 7 | 3.7 - 8.3 | 128 | 125 | -3 | 111 | -17 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 3 - 7 | 3.5 - 8.5 | 129 | 127 | -2 | 120 | -9 |
| UTEP | CUSA | 2 - 8 | 2.6 - 9.4 | 130 | 130 | - | 130 | - |
| New Mexico State | CUSA | 2 - 8 | 2.9 - 9.1 | 131 | 132 | +1 | 92 | -39 |
| Southern Miss | SBELT | 1 - 9 | 1.3 - 10.7 | 132 | 131 | -1 | 101 | -31 |
| Kennesaw State | CUSA | 1 - 9 | 1.4 - 10.6 | 133 | 133 | - | 134 | +1 |
| Kent State | MAC | 0 - 10 | 0.4 - 11.6 | 134 | 134 | - | 132 | -2 |
| Conference |
Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Ranking: 2
FTN Power Ranking: 1
Change: None
It’s still the Buckeyes’ world in the FTN Power Rankings. Ohio State posted a fourth straight blowout win on Saturday, going on the road to blast Northwestern, 31-7. We have the Buckeyes favored over every team on a neutral field, even the current AP No. 1, Oregon. We have the Ducks at No. 6 in our power rankings model, despite the Ducks’ 32-31 home win over Ohio State just one month ago. The Buckeyes have reeled off three straight wins since that point, defeating Nebraska, No. 3 Penn State and blanking Purdue 45-0. The Buckeyes would project as a slight favorite over every team in college football, even our No. 2-ranked Texas Longhorns. Ohio State carries the highest probability of winning the College Football Playoff, per our CFP Simulations, climbing two percentage points to 30.2%.
Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Ranking: 4
FTN Power Ranking: 4
Change: +4
The Nittany Lions vault up the FTN Power Rankings to No. 4 overall after their 49-10 blowout at Purdue. Penn State would now project as a betting favorite on a neutral field over teams such as Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Alabama and even No. 1 Oregon. Per our College Football Playoff Simulations, we give Penn state a 6.9% chance of winning the CFP National Championship. Hard to see the Nittany Lions tripping up at Maryland or home to Minnesota to end the season. Head coach James Franklin will have every opportunity to earn that elusive big victory in the CFP.
Indiana Hoosiers
AP Ranking: 5
FTN Power Ranking: 11
Change: +3
It’s hard to envision an objective College Football Playoff that doesn’t include the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is now 11-0 after a tough 20-15 home win over Michigan. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has 21 touchdowns with just four interceptions and is completing 71.8% of his passes. A win this weekend at Ohio State would establish the Hoosiers as a realistic CFP National Championship contender. We currently have Indiana with only a 0.8% change of winning the playoffs. They reside at 10th overall in our CFP Simulations.
Check out some more interesting CFB Information on ftnfantasy.com.
