2024 FTN NFL Power Rankings Through Week 15: Who Takes Over the Top Spot?
Daniel Kelley
Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model, which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.
We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN Power Rankings.
| Team | Conference | Record | Proj W-L | Current Rank | Previous | Week Diff | Preseason | Pre Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | BIG10 | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 1 | 1 | - | 2 | +1 |
| Texas | SEC | 11 - 2 | 11.0 - 2.0 | 2 | 2 | - | 8 | +6 |
| Oregon | BIG10 | 13 - 0 | 13.0 - 0.0 | 3 | 3 | - | 6 | +3 |
| Alabama | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 5 | +1 |
| Georgia | SEC | 11 - 2 | 11.0 - 2.0 | 5 | 6 | +1 | 1 | -4 |
| Notre Dame | IND | 11 - 1 | 11.0 - 1.0 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 7 | +1 |
| Penn State | BIG10 | 11 - 2 | 11.0 - 2.0 | 7 | 4 | -3 | 3 | -4 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 8 | 8 | - | 11 | +3 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 9 | 9 | - | 16 | +7 |
| Indiana | BIG10 | 11 - 1 | 11.0 - 1.0 | 10 | 10 | - | 74 | +64 |
| SMU | ACC | 11 - 2 | 11.0 - 2.0 | 11 | 12 | +1 | 32 | +21 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 12 | 11 | -1 | 51 | +39 |
| Clemson | ACC | 10 - 3 | 10.0 - 3.0 | 13 | 14 | +1 | 10 | -3 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 14 | 13 | -1 | 14 | - |
| Florida | SEC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 15 | 18 | +3 | 29 | +14 |
| Louisville | ACC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 16 | 16 | - | 23 | +7 |
| LSU | SEC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 17 | 15 | -2 | 15 | -2 |
| Auburn | SEC | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 18 | 19 | +1 | 20 | +2 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 19 | 17 | -2 | 25 | +6 |
| USC | BIG10 | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 20 | 23 | +3 | 24 | +4 |
| Arizona State | BIG12 | 11 - 2 | 11.0 - 2.0 | 21 | 20 | -1 | 89 | +68 |
| Minnesota | BIG10 | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 22 | 22 | - | 52 | +30 |
| Iowa State | BIG12 | 10 - 3 | 10.0 - 3.0 | 23 | 27 | +4 | 46 | +23 |
| Colorado | BIG12 | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 24 | 21 | -3 | 75 | +51 |
| Missouri | SEC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 25 | 28 | +3 | 12 | -13 |
| Kansas State | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 26 | 25 | -1 | 18 | -8 |
| Iowa | BIG10 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 27 | 24 | -3 | 42 | +15 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 28 | 29 | +1 | 43 | +15 |
| Baylor | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 29 | 37 | +8 | 76 | +47 |
| Michigan | BIG10 | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 30 | 32 | +2 | 4 | -26 |
| Nebraska | BIG10 | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 31 | 30 | -1 | 49 | +18 |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 32 | 26 | -6 | 9 | -23 |
| Kansas | BIG12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 33 | 34 | +1 | 50 | +17 |
| BYU | BIG12 | 10 - 2 | 10.0 - 2.0 | 34 | 36 | +2 | 86 | +52 |
| Washington | BIG10 | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 35 | 38 | +3 | 13 | -22 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 36 | 35 | -1 | 53 | +17 |
| TCU | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 37 | 31 | -6 | 38 | +1 |
| UCF | BIG12 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 38 | 40 | +2 | 45 | +7 |
| Boise State | MWST | 12 - 1 | 12.0 - 1.0 | 39 | 41 | +2 | 34 | -5 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 40 | 39 | -1 | 35 | -5 |
| Texas Tech | BIG12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 41 | 42 | +1 | 28 | -13 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 42 | 43 | +1 | 96 | +54 |
| California | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 43 | 46 | +3 | 77 | +34 |
| Wisconsin | BIG10 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 44 | 44 | - | 30 | -14 |
| Tulane | AMER | 9 - 4 | 9.0 - 4.0 | 45 | 33 | -12 | 58 | +13 |
| Duke | ACC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 46 | 51 | +5 | 39 | -7 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 47 | 47 | - | 22 | -25 |
| UNLV | MWST | 10 - 3 | 10.0 - 3.0 | 48 | 45 | -3 | 70 | +22 |
| Cincinnati | BIG12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 49 | 49 | - | 41 | -8 |
| Illinois | BIG10 | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 50 | 53 | +3 | 56 | +6 |
| Rutgers | BIG10 | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 51 | 50 | -1 | 82 | +31 |
| Boston College | ACC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 52 | 56 | +4 | 68 | +16 |
| Army | AMER | 11 - 1 | 11.6 - 1.4 | 53 | 62 | +9 | 109 | +56 |
| UCLA | BIG10 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 54 | 54 | - | 44 | -10 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 55 | 52 | -3 | 54 | -1 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 56 | 55 | -1 | 61 | +5 |
| Virginia | ACC | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 57 | 59 | +2 | 81 | +24 |
| Utah | BIG12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 58 | 60 | +2 | 17 | -41 |
| Memphis | AMER | 10 - 2 | 10.5 - 2.5 | 59 | 65 | +6 | 59 | - |
| West Virginia | BIG12 | 6 - 6 | 6.5 - 6.5 | 60 | 48 | -12 | 31 | -29 |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 61 | 57 | -4 | 36 | -25 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 62 | 58 | -4 | 33 | -29 |
| Maryland | BIG10 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 63 | 63 | - | 40 | -23 |
| Texas State | SBELT | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 64 | 61 | -3 | 87 | +23 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 65 | 64 | -1 | 47 | -18 |
| Michigan State | BIG10 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 66 | 66 | - | 79 | +13 |
| James Madison | SBELT | 8 - 4 | 8.6 - 4.4 | 67 | 70 | +3 | 55 | -12 |
| Washington State | PAC12 | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 68 | 67 | -1 | 37 | -31 |
| Ohio | MAC | 10 - 3 | 10.0 - 3.0 | 69 | 84 | +15 | 84 | +15 |
| Louisiana | SBELT | 10 - 3 | 10.0 - 3.0 | 70 | 68 | -2 | 78 | +8 |
| Oklahoma State | BIG12 | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 71 | 69 | -2 | 26 | -45 |
| Arizona | BIG12 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 72 | 71 | -1 | 27 | -45 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 73 | 73 | - | 57 | -16 |
| Marshall | SBELT | 10 - 3 | 10.0 - 3.0 | 74 | 78 | +4 | 73 | -1 |
| Jacksonville State | CUSA | 9 - 4 | 9.0 - 4.0 | 75 | 81 | +6 | 93 | +18 |
| UTSA | AMER | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 76 | 79 | +3 | 48 | -28 |
| Navy | AMER | 8 - 3 | 8.4 - 3.6 | 77 | 75 | -2 | 110 | +33 |
| South Alabama | SBELT | 6 - 6 | 6.7 - 6.3 | 78 | 74 | -4 | 66 | -12 |
| Houston | BIG12 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 79 | 80 | +1 | 69 | -10 |
| Connecticut | IND | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 80 | 86 | +6 | 122 | +42 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 81 | 93 | +12 | 112 | +31 |
| East Carolina | AMER | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 82 | 89 | +7 | 94 | +12 |
| Miami OH | MAC | 8 - 5 | 8.0 - 5.0 | 83 | 72 | -11 | 99 | +16 |
| San Jose State | MWST | 7 - 5 | 7.5 - 5.5 | 84 | 92 | +8 | 72 | -12 |
| Fresno State | MWST | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 85 | 77 | -8 | 71 | -14 |
| New Mexico | MWST | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 86 | 83 | -3 | 100 | +14 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 87 | 82 | -5 | 121 | +34 |
| Old Dominion | SBELT | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 88 | 87 | -1 | 108 | +20 |
| Stanford | ACC | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 89 | 91 | +2 | 85 | -4 |
| Colorado State | MWST | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 90 | 90 | - | 104 | +14 |
| North Texas | AMER | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 91 | 94 | +3 | 80 | -11 |
| Liberty | CUSA | 8 - 3 | 8.6 - 3.4 | 92 | 76 | -16 | 64 | -28 |
| Georgia Southern | SBELT | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 93 | 101 | +8 | 83 | -10 |
| South Florida | AMER | 6 - 6 | 6.5 - 6.5 | 94 | 88 | -6 | 91 | -3 |
| Air Force | MWST | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 95 | 95 | - | 63 | -32 |
| Toledo | MAC | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 96 | 97 | +1 | 67 | -29 |
| Western Kentucky | CUSA | 8 - 5 | 8.4 - 5.6 | 97 | 85 | -12 | 90 | -7 |
| Florida State | ACC | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 98 | 98 | - | 21 | -77 |
| Northwestern | BIG10 | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 99 | 99 | - | 97 | -2 |
| Utah State | MWST | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 100 | 100 | - | 117 | +17 |
| Oregon State | PAC12 | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 101 | 102 | +1 | 19 | -82 |
| Appalachian State | SBELT | 5 - 6 | 5.4 - 6.6 | 102 | 103 | +1 | 65 | -37 |
| Troy | SBELT | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 103 | 105 | +2 | 62 | -41 |
| Coastal Carolina | SBELT | 6 - 6 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 104 | 104 | - | 95 | -9 |
| Sam Houston | CUSA | 9 - 3 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 105 | 96 | -9 | 127 | +22 |
| Hawaii | MWST | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 106 | 106 | - | 113 | +7 |
| Nevada | MWST | 3 - 10 | 3.0 - 10.0 | 107 | 107 | - | 123 | +16 |
| Rice | AMER | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 108 | 108 | - | 103 | -5 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 8 - 4 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 109 | 118 | +9 | 119 | +10 |
| Purdue | BIG10 | 1 - 11 | 1.0 - 11.0 | 110 | 109 | -1 | 60 | -50 |
| Arkansas State | SBELT | 7 - 5 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 111 | 110 | -1 | 102 | -9 |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 112 | 111 | -1 | 118 | +6 |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 6 - 6 | 6.3 - 6.7 | 113 | 112 | -1 | 115 | +2 |
| FIU | CUSA | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 114 | 113 | -1 | 133 | +19 |
| Georgia State | SBELT | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 115 | 114 | -1 | 107 | -8 |
| UAB | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 116 | 115 | -1 | 88 | -28 |
| Wyoming | MWST | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 117 | 116 | -1 | 98 | -19 |
| Charlotte | AMER | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 118 | 117 | -1 | 116 | -2 |
| Louisiana Monroe | SBELT | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 119 | 119 | - | 128 | +9 |
| Florida Atlantic | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 120 | 120 | - | 105 | -15 |
| San Diego State | MWST | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 121 | 121 | - | 106 | -15 |
| UMass | IND | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 122 | 122 | - | 129 | +7 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 5 - 7 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 123 | 123 | - | 124 | +1 |
| Akron | MAC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 124 | 124 | - | 131 | +7 |
| Temple | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 125 | 125 | - | 125 | - |
| UTEP | CUSA | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 126 | 126 | - | 130 | +4 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 4 - 8 | 4.0 - 8.0 | 127 | 127 | - | 120 | -7 |
| Ball State | MAC | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 128 | 128 | - | 126 | -2 |
| New Mexico State | CUSA | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 129 | 129 | - | 92 | -37 |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 130 | 130 | - | 114 | -16 |
| Tulsa | AMER | 3 - 9 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 131 | 131 | - | 111 | -20 |
| Southern Miss | SBELT | 1 - 11 | 1.0 - 11.0 | 132 | 132 | - | 101 | -31 |
| Kennesaw State | CUSA | 2 - 10 | 2.0 - 10.0 | 133 | 133 | - | 134 | +1 |
| Kent State | MAC | 0 - 12 | 0.0 - 12.0 | 134 | 134 | - | 132 | -2 |
| Conference |
Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Ranking: 2
FTN Power Ranking: 1
Change: None
It’s still the Buckeyes’ world in the FTN Power Rankings. Ohio State posted a fourth straight blowout win on Saturday, going on the road to blast Northwestern, 31-7. We have the Buckeyes favored over every team on a neutral field, even the current AP No. 1, Oregon. We have the Ducks at No. 6 in our power rankings model, despite the Ducks’ 32-31 home win over Ohio State just one month ago. The Buckeyes have reeled off three straight wins since that point, defeating Nebraska, No. 3 Penn State and blanking Purdue 45-0. The Buckeyes would project as a slight favorite over every team in college football, even our No. 2-ranked Texas Longhorns. Ohio State carries the highest probability of winning the College Football Playoff, per our CFP Simulations, climbing two percentage points to 30.2%.
Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Ranking: 4
FTN Power Ranking: 4
Change: +4
The Nittany Lions vault up the FTN Power Rankings to No. 4 overall after their 49-10 blowout at Purdue. Penn State would now project as a betting favorite on a neutral field over teams such as Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Alabama and even No. 1 Oregon. Per our College Football Playoff Simulations, we give Penn state a 6.9% chance of winning the CFP National Championship. Hard to see the Nittany Lions tripping up at Maryland or home to Minnesota to end the season. Head coach James Franklin will have every opportunity to earn that elusive big victory in the CFP.
Indiana Hoosiers
AP Ranking: 5
FTN Power Ranking: 11
Change: +3
It’s hard to envision an objective College Football Playoff that doesn’t include the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is now 11-0 after a tough 20-15 home win over Michigan. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has 21 touchdowns with just four interceptions and is completing 71.8% of his passes. A win this weekend at Ohio State would establish the Hoosiers as a realistic CFP National Championship contender. We currently have Indiana with only a 0.8% change of winning the playoffs. They reside at 10th overall in our CFP Simulations.
Check out some more interesting CFB Information on ftnfantasy.com.
