Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
FTN’s 2024 College Football Power Rankings were released Wednesday, which inspired plenty of conversation surrounding multiple teams and their position on that list. These rankings are created by FTN Data’s model, which runs 10,000 simulations.
There are a few team rankings that stand out to me and even some potential betting value when it comes to the overall win projections. These rankings will update each week as the model collects additional data. Here are my thoughts on the first edition of the FTN College Football Power Rankings.
Missouri Tigers
(Projected 9-3 Record)
This Missouri team has a chance to be great, and I’m certainly not the only one in the industry that thinks so. They’re returning one of the best receivers in all of college football in Luther Burden (86-1,212-9) along with steady quarterback Brady Cook (3,317 passing yards). You would think losing stud running back Cody Schrader to the NFL would be problematic, but the staff plucked Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll (1,350 rushing yards) and Appy State transfer Nate Noel (834 rushing yards) from the portal to shoulder the load. This will be an elite offense, there is no denying that.
There isn’t the same caliber of star power on the defensive side of the ball but they’ve got plenty of depth thanks to the transfer portal and they’ll have to adopt a classic “bend, not break” approach.
Schedule-wise, they avoid Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Florida, Kentucky and Ole Miss. With a somewhat softer schedule, the opportunity will be there to win 10 games or more. They’ll presumably start 4-0 (Murray State, Buffalo, BC, Vandy) before a week 5 road matchup with Texas A&M. After that early test, they’ll face just two other teams in the preseason top 25 which are Alabama (road) and Oklahoma (home). Over 9.5 wins is currently +146 on FanDuel and +135 over on DraftKings which is enough value to take a shot on a team that could very well win the SEC. I’ll also sprinkle a bet on them to win the SEC at +2500 on FanDuel.
Miami Hurricanes
(Projected 9-3 Record)
This is another team that I fully believe in and feel has a legitimate chance to win the ACC. I even went out and grabbed a Heisman future on new QB Cam Ward at +2500 back in April. This team is going to be ridiculously good, and they have NFL-caliber talent littered throughout the roster.
As mentioned above, Washington State transfer Ward takes over as the face of the team and will have a chance to have a truly special season. He inherits a receiver room that features returners Xavier Restrepo (85-1,092-6) and Jacolby George (57-864-8). Coach Mario Cristobal also landed Houston transfer wideout Samuel Brown (62-815-3) along with juggernaut running back Damien Martinez (1,200 rushing yards) from Oregon State. The defense will have a strong pass rush, and they should be adequate against the run game as well.
In recent history, the Canes have essentially beaten themselves, and they’ll have to put those mistakes behind them in order to hit the 10-win threshold. They start the season with a road game against the Florida Gators but won’t face another FTN top-25 squad until Oct. 19 against Louisville. A tricky home game against Virginia Tech looms Sept. 27, but they won’t play Clemson, North Carolina or NC State in the regular season. Over 9.5 wins is +138 on FanDuel and +440 to win the ACC outright.
Arizona Wildcats
(Projected 9-3 Record)
The FTN Data Model has Arizona highly rated coming in at No. 27. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have the Arizona win total at 7.5, which gives us a sizable edge when betting the over. This will be the Wildcats’ first season in the Big 12 after the mass exodus of the Pac-12. The schedule is favorable for the conference newcomers as five of their last seven matchups are against teams that didn’t play in a bowl game. They have a daunting road game against Utah Sept. 28, but that is a program that they’re inherently familiar with. Kansas and Oklahoma State aren’t on their schedule which raises their overall win ceiling substantially.
QB Noah Fifita (2,869 passing yards, 25 TD to 6 INT) leads the way and he will have his favorite receiver back for another season in Tetairoa McMillan (90-1,402-10). They’ll have a solid 1-2 punch at running back as well in New Mexico transfer Jacorey Croskey-Merritt (1,190 rushing yards) and San Jose State transfer Quali Conley (842 rushing yards). It would be a mistake to write this Arizona team off like many are doing and our model agrees.
