Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With plenty of shakeup in the college football landscape heading into 2024, it’s hard to keep everything in order. In the coming weeks, I will brief you on every team, conference by conference.
One important factor in 2024? The new College Football Playoff format.
We have a new 12-team playoff format that gives more teams an opportunity to play for the College Football Championship. The five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids, with the next seven highest-ranked teams completing the group.
The winner of the Conference USA will get a shot at the coveted fifth conference championship slot but will have to battle between the winners of the Sun Belt, MAC, American Athletic Conference and Mountain West.
When we look at the Mountain West this year, it is wide open at the top, but only a few teams have a real shot at competing. Boise State is the favorite, but there is a path for teams like Fresno State, UNLV and Wyoming. With many of the other teams going through a plethora of changes to personnel and coaching staffs.
(All odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook.)
2024 College Football Mountain West Conference Preview
Air Force
2023 record: 9-4 (5-3 conference record)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +1400; Win Total: o6.5 -134
Coach: Troy Calhoun (130-82)
In 2023, Air Force maintained its high level of success, culminating with a win over James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl. This year will bring some changes, with quarterback Zachar Larrier, who accounted for over 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns, now departed. John Busa, who saw limited action in 2023, steps into that role. Additionally, leading rusher Emmanuel Michel is also gone, creating another significant void. On a positive note, leading pass catchers Jared Roznos and Cade Harris are returning. Defensively, many of last year’s top performers have graduated, raising questions about whether the unit can replicate their impressive performance from last year, when they allowed just 18.2 points per game. While I expect Air Force to surpass the seven-win mark, matching or exceeding their win total from last year is a challenge.
Boise State
2023 record: 8-6 (6-2)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: -125; Win Total: o9.5 +108
Coach: Spencer Danielson (3-1)
Boise State is generating significant buzz this year as the favorite to win the Mountain West. Much of this excitement is due to the addition of former five-star quarterback Malachi Nelson, who will compete with Maddux Madsen for the starting role. The winner will be supported by star RB Ashton Jeanty, who is coming off a season with over 1,900 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns. Jeanty will look to cement his name among the top names in the upcoming draft. Boise State’s leading receiver, Eric McAlister, will be replaced by Prince Strachan and transfer Cameron Camper. On defense, Boise State returns most of its starters, including Ahmed Hassanein who had an impressive 12.5 sacks last season. This continuity is expected to contribute to a strong defensive performance and overall improvement this year. If they can improve, it is easy to see a path for Boise State to find themselves in the College Football Playoff.
Colorado State
2023 record: 5-7 (3-5)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +1600; Win Total: o6.5 +104
Coach: Jay Norvell (8-16)
After their best season in six years, Colorado State is heading in the right direction for 2024. They return quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who threw for over 3,400 yards and 22 touchdowns last season. However, he also led the Mountain West with 16 interceptions, so improving his decision-making will be key to the team’s progress. Leading receiver Tory Horton is back after two consecutive seasons with over 1,100 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, and he aims to continue his strong performance. The departure of tight end Dallin Holker creates a significant void in the passing game that transfer Jaxxon Warren will look to fill. On defense, the Rams return safeties Jack Howell and Henry Blackburn, providing stability to the secondary. Chase Wilson, who recorded 107 tackles last year, also returns to anchor the middle of the defense. Reaching the seven-win mark is a challenge.
Fresno State
2023 record: 9-4 (4-4)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +420; Win Total: o7.5 -148
Coach: Jeff Tedford (45-22)
Fresno State had a strong 2023 season, but this year could be even better. They return a wealth of starters, including all their offensive skill position players. QB Mikey Keene will look to build on a successful 2023 campaign, which saw him pass for 2,976 yards and 24 touchdowns. Running back Malik Sherrod is coming off a season with a team-leading 1,226 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. On defense, leading tacklers Malachi Langley and Dean Clark are back, joined by transfer Korey Foreman, a highly touted recruit who has struggled with injuries thus far. This addition should strengthen a defense that allowed 23.5 points per game in 2023. As a perennial Mountain West contender, Fresno State is expected to be a top team once again. While reaching 10 wins is possible and could be necessary to secure the conference title.
Hawaii
2023 record: 5-8 (3-5)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +3200; Win Total: o4.5 -188
Coach: Timmy Chang (8-18)
Hawaii has faced challenges since its 10-5 season in 2019, and the outlook for 2024 isn’t different. Senior quarterback Brayden Schager returns after a strong 2023 season in which he threw for 3,542 yards and 26 touchdowns. He will be supported by Landon Sims, the team’s leading rusher. The receiving corps is also intact, with all four top receivers from last year returning, highlighted by Steven McBride, who recorded the team’s first 1,000-yard receiving season since 2019. On the defensive side, most starters are back and will aim to improve on their 2023 performance, which saw them allow over 33 points per game.
Nevada
2023 record: 2-10 (2-6)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +15000; Win Total: o2.5 -100
Coach: Jeff Choate (new)
The Wolf Pack has struggled since the departure of Carson Strong, Romeo Doubs and Cole Turner in 2021, winning just four games over the past two years. They’ve added five potential starters on offense via the transfer portal, including senior quarterback Chubba Purdy, who will compete with Brendon Lewis for the starting spot. Patrick Garwo aims to return to his 2021 form, where he rushed for over 1,000 yards at Boston College, but will share carries with Savion Red, a junior transfer from Texas. On defense, the team lost its top two tacklers from last year but recruited several transfers to bolster the unit. While the Wolf Pack may still face challenges in 2024, there is a possibility of winning more than three games this season.
New Mexico
2023 record: 4-8 (2-6)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +25000; Win Total: o2.5 +122
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (new)
Since 2016, New Mexico has not posted a winning season, and that doesn’t look to change this year. The arrival of Bronco Mendenhall certainly offers optimism. He led BYU to 11 consecutive bowl games and a peak ranking of 7, though he has been away from the game for a few years. With starter Dykan Hopkins gone, Devon Dampier is expected to be the primary quarterback, though Justin Holaday will also compete for the role. Senior Andrew Henry will step in as the starting running back, and Caleb Medford, last year’s leading receiver, will also return. A major overhaul is occurring in the trenches with five new transfers expected to start on the offensive line. On defense, the team has added three potential starters along the defensive line, aiming to improve a unit that allowed 35.1 points per game, ranking 126th nationally.
San Diego State
2023 record: 4-8 (2-6)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +3200; Win Total: o5.5 -102
Coach: Sean Lewis (new)
San Diego State has faced turbulent seasons and now have 12 potential starters arriving via the transfer portal. The quarterback position is notably inexperienced, with transfer AJ Duffy having thrown just seven passes and freshman Danny O’Neil also in the mix for the starting role. The standout addition is senior running back Marquez Cooper, who is coming off his third consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season and will be pivotal for the Aztecs’ success in 2024. Receiver Mekhi Shaw is the lone returning contributor, joined by two transfers at the top of the receiver room. On defense, the team has lost many of its top performers, raising concerns about the unit’s ability to hold up. With so many changes across the roster, it’s challenging to see how the team will achieve six wins this season. However, history shows that teams in similar situations have sometimes exceeded expectations, so I wouldn’t rule it completely out.
San Jose State
2023 record: 7-6 (6-2)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +6500; Win Total: o4.5 -105
Coach: Ken Niumatalolo (new)
Coming off their second consecutive seven-win season, San Jose State will have a new head coach in Ken Niumatalolo from Navy. Niumatalolo will aim to build on the success achieved under Brent Brennan. Quarterback is a major question mark, with transfer Emmett Brown as the front-runner and Walker Eget also in contention. Both players lack significant college experience. After the departure of Kairee Robinson, the Spartans bolstered their backfield with Grambling transfer Floyd Chalk IV, who is coming off a career season with 696 yards and 9 touchdowns. Receivers Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart will lead the receiving corps. Nash is looking to build on a strong 2023 season, while Lockhart hopes to rebound after missing last season due to an arm injury. Defensively, there are numerous changes, but many of the players are home grown. Jordan Pollard returns to anchor a unit that allowed just 25.6 points per game last year. If a quarterback emerges and performs effectively, the team could potentially reach the six-win mark.
UNLV
2023 record: 9-5 (6-2)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +700; Win Total: o7.5 +122
Coach: Barry Odom (9-5)
In a surprising turn, UNLV recorded its first winning season since 2013 last year, finishing with a 9-5 record. However, there are doubts about whether they can maintain that success this season. The team is undergoing a quarterback change from Jayden Maiava to Matthew Sulka. Sulka, who has been productive at Holy Cross with over 5,500 passing yards, may face challenges adjusting to the higher level of competition. Jai’Den Thomas had a strong freshman season with 503 yards and 12 touchdowns and is set to take over as the lead running back. Star receiver Ricky White returns after a breakout season in which he totaled 1,483 yards and 8 touchdowns. White is expected to be a top prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft and will look to build on his impressive performance. A significant portion of the defense returns, including Jackson Woodard who was second in the Mountain West with 116 tackles last year. The return of multiple key players is promising for a defense looking to improve upon last year’s performance. This squad is my favorite sleeper to win the conference, which would likely require them to get to double-digit wins.
Utah State
2023 record: 6-7 (4-4)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +3600; Win Total: o5.5 +138
Coach: Blake Anderson (23-17)
Heading into 2024, the Aggies aim to build on a solid 2023 performance where they averaged over 33 points per game. They have added two transfer quarterbacks (Spencer Petras from Iowa and Bryson Barnes from Utah), with Petras securing the starting role in the spring. With Davon Booth gone, it’s promising that Rahsul Faison and Robert Biggs are back. Both running backs had strong seasons last year, each surpassing 400 rushing yards. Jalen Royals is fresh off a season where he led the Mountain West with 15 receiving touchdowns and will look to replicate his success. Defensively, the team is making significant changes to revitalize a unit that ranked 123rd nationally, allowing 34.7 points per game. Given the uncertainty at quarterback and depth concerns at skill positions, substantial defensive improvement will be crucial for the team to reach a five-win season in 2024. As it stands, this goal seems ambitious.
Wyoming
2023 record: 9-4 (5-3)
2024 odds: MWC Winner: +1800; Win Total: o6.5 +108
Coach: Jay Sawvel (new)
After three consecutive winning seasons, Wyoming is set for significant changes, including a new head coach. Jay Sawvel replaces Craig Bohl, who led the program since 2014. Junior Evan Svoboda will step in as quarterback for the Cowboys, though he brings just 200 career passing yards. Harrison Waylee led the team with 947 rushing yards last season and returns to anchor the backfield. In the passing game, tight end John Michael Gyllenborg had 360 receiving yards and is the team’s top returning receiving weapon. Defensively, Shae Suiaunoa will lead a unit that allowed only 22.3 points per game last year. With Sawvel’s continued presence, there is optimism that the defense will maintain its strong performance. With a good amount of continuity defensively, the seven-win mark is possible.
