Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
With plenty of shakeup in the college football landscape heading into 2024, it’s hard to keep everything in order. In the coming weeks, I will brief you on every team, conference by conference.
One important factor in 2024? The new College Football Playoff format.
We have a new 12-team playoff format that gives more teams an opportunity to play for the College Football Championship. The five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids, with the next seven highest-ranked teams completing the group.
The winner of the Conference USA will get a shot at the coveted fifth conference championship slot but will have to battle between the winners of the Sun Belt, MAC, American Athletic Conference and Mountain West.
After the Pac-12 ended operation at the end of 2023 the Independents gained two teams in Oregon State and Washington State. Even with this, it is still all about Notre Dame, they have the most talented roster by a mile and will be the only team from this group with any chance of making the College Football Playoff.
(All odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook.)
2024 College Football Independents Preview
Notre Dame
2023 record: 10-3
2024 odds: Win Total: o10.5 +142
Coach: Marcus Freeman (19-8)
Notre Dame’s tradition of losing key players to the NFL continued in 2023, but, as usual, they quickly replenished their talent. This year, they’ve added transfer quarterback Riley Leonard, a big-bodied dual-threat quarterback who has the potential to become a Heisman candidate. Although Leonard’s health has been a concern in the past, he has thrown for over 4,000 yards and rushed for over 1,000 in three seasons at Duke. In the backfield, Jeremiyah Love is set to continue the tradition of standout Irish running backs. The receiver room has been revamped with the additions of Beaux Collins, Kris Mitchell and Jayden Harrison, creating a fresh talented look for the passing game. Defensively, Notre Dame strengthened an already impressive unit by bringing in RJ Oben from Duke to bolster the defensive line. With these key additions, the Fighting Irish are poised for a season with 10 plus wins and to contend for the College Football Championship.
Oregon State
2023 record: 8-5 (5-4 conference record)
2024 odds: Win Total: o7.5 +106
Coach: Trent Bray (new)
Oregon State has had a turbulent offseason following the dissolution of the Pac-12, leaving them in a state of uncertainty. The departure of key players has compounded their challenges. Notably, leading passer D.J. Uiagalelei, has left, and Ben Gulbranson is set to take over the quarterback role. Gulbranson, who threw for over 1,400 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2022, will be the new signal caller. The team also lost standout running back Damien Martinez, who had two consecutive 1,000-yard scrimmage seasons. Transfers Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson are expected to share the workload in his absence. Additionally, Oregon State’s top receivers from the previous season are gone, leaving sophomore David Wells and junior Jeremiah Noga to step up. The defense will feature a completely new lineup, though many of these players have been with the program and will be stepping into expanded roles. They did add transfer cornerbacks Kobe Singleton and Sai Vadrawale, which should help anchor the secondary. With the significant talent losses, achieving seven wins this season will be challenging. However, the team’s drive to attract attention from a major conference could lead to them exceeding expectations.
Washington State
2023 record: 5-7 (2-7)
2024 odds: Win Total: o7.5 -105
Coach: Jake Dickert (15-16)
Like Oregon State, Washington State has been left in limbo after the dissolution of the Pac-12 and has experienced significant talent losses. Cameron Ward, a top quarterback from last year who passed for over 3,800 yards, has departed, leaving sophomore John Mateer to take over. In the backfield, sophomore running back Djouvensky Schlenbaker will step into the lead role after contributing 146 yards on 33 carries last season. At receiver, Kyle Williams, coming off an 800-yard season, will lead the group, but transfer Kris Hutson is expected to play a crucial role as well. On defense, Kyle Thornton returns to anchor the unit following an 87-tackle season. With several starters returning alongside him, the Cougars aim to improve on their 28.1 points allowed per game from last season. While the defense is poised to keep Washington State competitive, surpassing seven wins will be a tough challenge.
Massachusetts
2023 record: 3-9
2024 odds: Win Total: o3.5 -104
Coach: Don Brown (4-20)
After a dismal 2022 season where they managed just one win, Massachusetts is showing signs of progress heading into 2024. Taisun Phommachanh returns at quarterback after a season in which he passed for 1,500 yards, though transfer Deuce Hogan may challenge him for the starting role. With the departure of Kay’ron Lynch-Adams, who had over 1,100 rushing yards last season, Jalen John is set to take over as the lead running back. Leading receiver Anthony Simpson is back, which is promising for the offense. He will be joined by five transfers, including Frank Ladson and Sterling Galban, who are expected to play key roles. Transfer tight end Dominick Mazotti could also be a significant contributor in the passing game. On defense, a good portion of last year’s starters return, providing valuable continuity that should help improve the unit. While the Minutemen are still likely facing a challenging season, reaching five wins would be a notable achievement.
UConn
2023 record: 3-9
2024 odds: Win Total: o4.5 -124
Coach: Jim Mora (9-16)
Since leaving the American Conference in 2020, UConn has experienced a turbulent journey, and 2024 looks poised to continue that trend. They will have a new starting quarterback in Nick Evers, who, despite limited college experience, brings a strong dual-threat capability and plenty of optimism. Running backs Cam Edwards and Victor Rosa return after both surpassed 500 rushing yards last season. The receiver corps, aside from Brett Buckman, is entirely new, raising several questions about their performance. On defense, the team must replace Jackson Mitchell, who has led the Huskies and the Independents in tackles for the past three seasons. To address this, they have brought in six transfers, including linebacker Julien Simon, who had 58 tackles for Tulsa last year. While the Huskies have plenty of new faces, I can see them reaching six wins this season, their success will largely depend on the performance of the defense and the running backs.
