Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
With plenty of shakeup in the college football landscape heading into 2024, it’s hard to keep everything in order. In the coming weeks, I will brief you on every team, conference by conference.
One important factor in 2024? The new College Football Playoff format.
We have a new 12-team playoff format that gives more teams an opportunity to play for the College Football Championship. The five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids, with the next seven highest-ranked teams completing the group.
The winner of the Conference USA will get a shot at the coveted fifth conference championship slot but will have to battle between the winners of the Sun Belt, MAC, American Athletic Conference and Mountain West.
The AAC has some interesting storylines this year. First off, John Sumerall takes over in Tulane as the only coaching change and will look to lead the Green Wave to a conference title. Their biggest battles will be with Memphis, South Florida, and UTSA. South Florida is a sleeper pick to win this conference if Byrum Brown continues his ascension. After these four it is a messy situation as many teams are hoping just to show some positive improvements as they build program foundations.
(All odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook.)
2024 College Football American Athletic Conference Preview
Army
2023 record: 6-6 (Independent in 2023)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +2500; Win Total: o5.5 -150
Coach: Jeff Monken (70-55)
Continuity is crucial for Army in 2024 as Jeff Monken returns for his 11th season. Senior quarterback Bryson Daily is back after accounting for 1,800 total yards last year, leading the team in both rushing (901 yards) and passing (913 yards). Running backs Kanye Udoh and Tyrell Robinson will also return, bolstering the team’s potent rushing attack. On defense, the departure of Leo Lowin to the NFL leaves a significant gap, but Kalib Fortner is poised to step up and fill it. Safety Max DiDomenico, coming off a 52-tackle season, will anchor the secondary. Since 2016, Army has not reached at least six wins only once, so it seems reasonable to expect them to achieve this milestone again in 2024.
Charlotte
2023 record: 3-9 (Conference record: 2-6)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +5000; Win Total: o3.5 -142
Coach: Biff Poggi (3-9)
Charlotte’s roster changes bring optimism for improving on last season’s win total. The quarterback competition heats up with transfer Max Brown challenging last year’s starter, Trexler Ivey, for the starting role. Running back Terron Kellman will benefit from the addition of Cartevious Norton, a transfer from Iowa who contributed over 700 yards and 5 touchdowns last season. The team also welcomes four new offensive linemen and two new wide receivers, who are expected to play key roles. On defense, cornerback Dontae Balfour returns to help anchor a unit that allowed over 28 points per game last year. With these changes, it seems likely that Charlotte could improve on their three-win record from last season, though exceeding five wins might be a stretch.
East Carolina
2023 record: 2-10 (1-7)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +2000; Win Total: o6.5 +102
Coach: Mike Houston (24-34)
East Carolina is revitalizing its roster this year with several key transfers. The quarterback position features a competition between Jake Garcia and Katin Houser, both of whom have limited experience but significant potential. The pass-catching corps is also revamped, with transfer Casey Kelly joining at tight end and wide receivers Winston Wright and Anthony Smith coming in. Rahjai Harris returns after leading the team in rushing with 485 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2023. On defense, senior linebacker Michael Edwards III, who recorded 61 tackles last season, will anchor the unit. The secondary benefits from the return of three of four starters, which is promising as the defense aims to build on its strong performance from the previous year.
Florida Atlantic
2023 record: 4-8 (3-5)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +3000; Win Total: o6.5 +108
Coach: Tom Herman (4-8)
Florida Atlantic is undergoing significant changes in 2024, welcoming six transfers who are expected to play crucial roles on offense. Cam Fancher, a transfer from Marshall, is poised to take over as the starting quarterback after showing steady improvement over his three seasons. George Johnson III will switch from wide receiver to running back, joining Zuberi Mobley to help fill the gap left by the departures of Larry McCammon III and Kobe Lewis. The team also brings in three transfer receivers, all with limited success elsewhere, making the competition wide open to replace leading receiver LaJohntay Wester, who has departed. On defense, Jackson Ambush returns to lead the unit after recording 89 tackles last season, ranking among the top 10 in the AAC. Despite the influx of new talent, Vegas has set a generous win total line for the Owls, and it seems unlikely that this roster will significantly improve on last season’s four-win record.
Memphis
2023 record: 10-3 (6-2)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +230; Win Total: o9.5 +146
Coach: Ryan Silverfield (31-18)
Memphis enters 2024 as a strong favorite to win the AAC thanks to the return of most of their top talent. Seth Henigan will continue as quarterback, bringing with him impressive career stats of 10,764 passing yards and 79 touchdowns. Wide receivers Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee are back after leading the team in receiving yards last season. Transfer Mario Anderson is expected to fill the void left by Blake Watson in the backfield. On defense, while there are many new faces, but notably Chandler Martin returns to anchor the unit. He finished last season with 66 solo tackles and 17 tackles for loss, both ranking second in the American Conference. With a potent offense that averaged 39.4 points per game last year largely intact, it’s reasonable to expect Memphis to exceed nine wins again this season.
Navy
2023 record: 5-7 (4-4)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +3000; Win Total: o5.5 +120
Coach: Brian Newberry (5-7)
Navy returns a wealth of experience on both sides of the ball this season, which is crucial for their success. However, the quarterback position is a major concern, with Braxton Woodson and Blake Horvath competing for the starting role in their triple-option offense. Running back Alex Tecza, who led the team in rushing yards and touchdowns last year, is back to provide a strong piece to their rushing attack. On defense, while many players return, Colin Ramos is particularly notable; he recorded 110 tackles last season, ranking second in the conference. Despite the continuity and key returning players, it seems unlikely that Navy will build significantly on last year’s success. It may be challenging for them to reach even four wins, let alone six.
North Texas
2023 record: 5-7 (3-5)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +2000; Win Total: o5.5 -134
Coach: Eric Morris (5-7)
To improve on a challenging first season in the conference, North Texas has aggressively targeted the transfer portal. A key addition is TCU transfer quarterback Chandler Morris, who threw for over 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns in just seven games last year. His presence should boost the offensive success they experienced last season. In the backfield, Ikaika Ragsdale will compete with Minnesota transfer Zach Evans to replace Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway III production, who have departed. The receiver corps also sees new faces, with transfers Jeremiah Aaron and Dalton Carnes joining Damon Ward and Blair Conwright. Defensively, North Texas has overhauled its entire secondary in hopes of improving from the 37.1 points allowed per game last season.
Rice
2023 record: 6-7 (4-4)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +1200; Win Total: o6.5 -134
Coach: Mike Bloomgren (22-46)
For the second consecutive year, Rice has turned to the transfer portal to secure their starting quarterback, bringing in E.J. Warner, the son of Kurt Warner. At Temple he passed for over 3,000 yards in back-to-back seasons and totaled 41 touchdowns. He will join an offense that retains leading rusher Dean Connors, along with wide receivers Landon Ransom-Goelz and Rawson MacNeill. Tight end Boden Groen also returns after a season with 383 receiving yards and will be a key component of the passing attack. On defense, a significant portion of last season’s top players are back, which should help improve the unit’s performance after a subpar year. Despite these enhancements, it may be challenging for Rice to surpass the six wins they achieved last season.
South Florida
2023 record: 7-6 (4-4)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +700; Win Total: o7.5 +118
Coach: Alex Golesh (7-6)
South Florida enters the season as a sleeper team to watch in their division. Junior quarterback Byrum Brown, who threw for 3,292 yards and rushed for 809 yards last year, returns after leading the conference with 37 total touchdowns. The Bulls also benefit from the return of Nay’quan Wright, the team’s leading running back, who is aiming to set new career highs after a standout season. Sean Atkins, coming off a breakout 1,000-yard season, and Naiem Simmons, who also set career highs, will provide additional offensive firepower. On defense, leading tackler Jhalyn Shuler returns to anchor the linebackers, while Caqavouis Berryhill and Aamaris Brown look to bolster the secondary. With this continuity and talent, South Florida has a strong potential to exceed nine wins and could even contend for the conference title if things go their way.
Temple
2023 record: 3-9 (1-7)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +18000; Win Total: o2.5 +116
Coach: Stan Drayton (6-18)
After back-to-back three-win seasons, it’s unlikely they will exceed that mark this year. The departure of quarterback E.J. Warner leaves a significant void, with Forrest Brock and Evan Simon competing for the role in 2024 — neither of whom has substantial starting experience. Transfer running back Antwain Littleton, who spent three years splitting carries at Maryland and accumulated 773 scrimmage yards, will get his first opportunity as a lead back. With the loss of their top two receivers, Dante Wright is expected to step up and fill that role. Defensively, the team is introducing many new faces in hopes of improving upon their 35.7 points allowed per game last season.
Tulane
2023 record: 11-3 (8-0)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +300; Win Total: o7.5 -152
Coach: Jon Sumrall (new)
After finding significant success over the past two seasons, Tulane faces plenty of change in 2024. Jon Sumrall, who had great success at Troy, brings optimism as the new head coach. At quarterback, established starter Michael Pratt is out, and highly recruited Ty Thompson, who has spent three years at Oregon, will finally get his chance to start. The team has also added USC transfer Mario Williams, known for his explosive playmaking, and Alabama transfer Shazz Preston, who, despite limited action, has high potential to the receiver room. Sophomore running back Makhi Hughes returns after leading the conference in rushing with 1,378 yards last season and will look to build on that success. On defense, linebackers Jesus Machado and Tyler Grubbs, who led the team in tackles last year, are back and should fit well into Sumrall’s defensive scheme. Tulane will be a strong contender for the conference title, but their success will largely depend on Ty Thompson’s performance.
Tulsa
2023 record: 4-8 (2-6)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +4000; Win Total: o4.5 -118
Coach: Kevin Wilson (4-8)
Tulsa faces a turbulent 2024 with a quarterback battle between Cardell Williams and Kirk Francis, as neither secured the starting role last season. Running backs Anthony Watkins and Bill Jackson return after combining for over 1,200 rushing yards in 2023. Transfers Jeremiah Ballard and Jack Wright join leading receiver Kamdyn Benjamin to strengthen the receiver corps. The team has overhauled the linebacker unit, bringing in three new transfer linebackers. Despite these changes, it’s unlikely the defense will significantly improve on the 33.8 points per game allowed last season. With roster turmoil, it may be challenging for Tulsa to build on their win total from the previous year.
UAB
2023 record: 4-8 (3-5)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +3000; Win Total: o6.5 +122
Coach: Trent Dilfer (4-8)
There is plenty of optimism heading into year two under Trent Dilfer for the Dragons, but expectations should remain realistic. Senior quarterback Jacob Zeno returns after a standout season, leading the conference with a 73.6% completion percentage and throwing for 3,126 yards and 20 touchdowns. Replacing running back Jermaine Brown will be a tall task, but Lee Beebe and Isaiah Jacobs are ready to step up. Amare Thomas is the leading candidate to fill the void left by top receiver Tejhaun Palmer, with Iverson Hooks and freshman Kam Shanks also contributing. Senior Michael Moore will anchor the defense, which aims to improve upon last season’s performance, where they allowed over 36 points per game. Improving on last year’s four-win mark is a tough task, but with a playmaker like Jacob Zeno at the helm, anything is possible.
UTSA
2023 record: 9-4 (7-1)
2024 odds: AAC Winner: +500; Win Total: o8.5 +118
Coach: Jeff Traylor (39-14)
With a wealth of returning starters, there is plenty of optimism for the Roadrunners this year. The key question is sophomore quarterback Owen McCown, who has limited experience but is set to replace Frank Harris. He is supported by a strong group of playmakers, including running backs Kevorian Barnes, who led the team in rushing in 2023, and Robert Henry, who led with 11 scrimmage touchdowns. De’Corian Clark returns after a serious knee injury and will aim to regain his previous form. Sophomore receiver Devin McCunin, who topped 500 yards as a freshman, is expected to continue his development. Tight end Oscar Cardenas will also be a significant part of the passing attack. The defense remains largely intact but has added LSU transfer Denver Harris to the secondary, which should strengthen the unit. With the quarterback change and the importance of De’Corian Clark’s return, it may be challenging for UTSA to exceed seven wins this season.
