Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With plenty of shakeup in the college football landscape heading into 2024, it’s hard to keep everything in order. In the coming weeks, I will brief you on every team, conference by conference.
One important factor in 2024? The new College Football Playoff format.
We have a new 12-team playoff format that gives more teams an opportunity to play for the College Football Championship. The five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids, with the next seven highest-ranked teams completing the group.
The winner of the Conference USA will get a shot at the coveted fifth conference championship slot but will have to battle between the winners of the Sun Belt, MAC, American Athletic Conference and Mountain West.
With the addition of three new teams this season, the ACC will have a fresh look. However, the conference favorites remain the same, with Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Miami and Louisville holding the shortest odds to win. Newcomer SMU, with a strong roster of returning starters, could be a significant disruptor in this hierarchy. The new format promises to be exciting, even though not all teams will face each other every year. Fans can look forward to new rivalries forming and some of the old mainstays that stay protected each year.
(All odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook.)
2024 College Football ACC Preview
Boston College
2023 record: 7-6 (Conference record: 3-5)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +17000; Win Total: o4.5 -152
Coach: Bill O’Brien (new)
Fresh off its first winning season since 2018, the team looks to build on that success, though it may be a challenging task. Bill O’Brien steps in as head coach, bringing a more pro-style attack to the offense. Junior quarterback Thomas Castellanos returns after a breakout season where he led the team in both passing and rushing. Running back Kye Robichaux, who led the running backs with 780 yards and 8 touchdowns, will look to continue his success in the new offensive scheme. Leading receiver Lewis Bond is back and will be joined by transfers Jerand Bradley and Jayden McGowan to add depth to the receiving corps. On defense, while there are many changes, Donovan Ezeiruaku returns after leading the team in sacks in 2023. The defensive unit could be a potential weakness, but improved offensive play might balance things out and create a path to a six-win season and a bowl game.
California
2023 record: 6-7 (4-5)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +8500; Win Total: o6.5 +146
Coach: Justin Wilcox (36-43)
In Jayden Ott we trust.
Last year, Ott shouldered the load for Cal, and he will need to continue doing so in 2024. Ott led the Pac-12 and ranked 14th nationally with 1,315 rushing yards and aims to surpass that this season. Sophomore Fernando Mendoza, who struggled last year, will need to improve in his second season as the starter. Although he lost his top receiver, Trond Grizzell returns after contributing over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. The team has also added six receivers through the transfer portal, including four-star recruit Tobias Merriweather from Notre Dame. Merriweather has high upside despite limited success so far. On defense, there is significant continuity, which might be concerning given they allowed over 32 points per game last year. If the defensive unit can improve with its returning players, the Golden Bears might secure a few extra wins. However, in a new conference, it may be challenging for them to exceed four wins.
Clemson
2023 record: 9-4 (4-4)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +370; Win Total: o8.5 -172
Coach: Dabo Swinney (170-43)
Coming off Dabo Swinney’s worst season as head coach since 2010, Clemson is looking to make a strong rebound. Junior quarterback Cade Klubnik, who had a disappointing season with just 2,844 passing yards, will aim to bounce back and demonstrate why he was a five-star recruit. Replacing Will Shipley will be challenging, but Phil Mafah is ready to take on the role after rushing for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns last year in a split role. Tight end Jake Briningstool, one of the nation’s top pass catchers at his position, returns and will be a key component of the passing attack. The Tigers’ success will hinge on the development of young receivers Antonio Williams and Adam Randle, who will need to step up significantly behind last year’s leading receiver, Tyler Brown. Defensively, several players will need to take on larger roles due to the departure of some of the team’s top defenders, but luckily Barrett Carter will be there to anchor the unit. While there is a path to ten wins for Clemson, it will require several things to go right, but it’s hard to bet against a Swinney-led team.
Duke
2023 record: 8-5 (4-4)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +15000; Win Total: o5.5 +140
Coach: Manny Diaz (new)
With Manny Diaz taking over as head coach, Duke aims to build on the foundation established in recent seasons. The departure of Riley Leonard is significant, but the addition of Maalik Murphy, a big-bodied quarterback with a powerful arm, brings optimism. However, his lack of experience is a concern. Senior Jaquez Moore will have the opportunity to lead the backfield this year after rushing for 674 yards and 6 touchdowns last season in a split role. Leading receiver Jordan Moore returns and will look to build on an impressive junior year. On defense, Tre Freeman, coming off a standout season with 106 tackles — one of the top five marks in the ACC — leads a unit that allowed just 19 points per game last year. Despite the continuity and strong defensive performance, the low win total predicted by bookmakers is surprising. Much of Duke’s success will lie on Maalik Murphy’s shoulders, but if he hits his stride, the team should easily cruise past six wins.
Florida State
2023 record: 13-1 (8-0)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +300; Win Total: o9.5 +104
Coach: Mike Norvell (31-17)
After a relatively stable offseason in 2023, Florida State faces significant changes in 2024. At quarterback, they welcome DJ Uiagalelei, who has amassed over 8,000 passing yards in his career between Clemson and Oregon State. The run game is expected to remain strong with Alabama transfer Roydell Williams stepping into Trey Benson’s role, alongside Lawrance Toafili. However, the receiver corps is a major concern, as it remains wide open following the departures of Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.
Defensively, Patrick Payton, DJ Lundy and Shyheim Brown return as key players, but the team has limited overall continuity in a quest to help support a question offense. While 2023 was a successful year for Florida State, 2024 may bring more challenges. It seems unlikely they will reach nine wins or win the ACC again this season.
Georgia Tech
2023 record: 7-6 (5-3)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +10000; Win Total: o4.5 -142
Coach: Brent Key (11-10)
After securing their first winning season since 2018, Georgia Tech is surprisingly flying under the radar. The team benefits from significant continuity, starting with junior quarterback Haynes King, who returns after a modest debut season as a Yellow Jacket. Leading rusher Jamal Haynes, who ranked fifth in the ACC with 1,059 yards in his first year as the primary back, is back to build on his breakout performance. Eric Singleton Jr. also returns after a standout freshman season with over 700 yards, generating optimism for a breakout sophomore campaign. On defense, the top two tacklers from last year are back to anchor a unit that allowed only 29 points per game. While winning the ACC may be unrealistic, Georgia Tech could potentially achieve eight or nine wins and contend for a College Football Playoff berth.
Louisville
2023 record: 10-4 (7-1)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +850; Win Total: o8.5 +132
Coach: Jeff Brohm (10-4)
After a strong challenge for the ACC championship, Louisville’s offense will see significant changes this year. Injury-riddled but talented grad transfer Tyler Shough will look to complete a full season for the first time. In the backfield, transfer Donald Chaney will join Maurice Turner in an attempt to replace the production of Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo. The receiving corps has been bolstered with the addition of Ja’Corey Brooks and Caullin Lacy, who, alongside Chris Bell, form a formidable trio. On defense, Ashton Gillotte returns after leading the ACC with 11 sacks. He will be joined by TJ Quinn and Devin Neal, who are also key returning players. Their presence should help maintain the strong defensive performance from last year. If Tyler Shough can stay healthy for the entire season, Louisville has a real chance to win the ACC this year.
Miami (FL)
2023 record: 7-6 (3-5)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +440; Win Total: o9.5 +138
Coach: Mario Cristobal (12-13)
After another disappointing finish in 2023, Miami is poised for a turnaround with significant additions from the transfer portal. Cam Ward, a standout quarterback from Washington State with over 6,900 passing yards and 48 touchdowns in his career, is expected to be the key to unlocking the offense. A crucial addition was bringing in Damien Martinez, one of the top running backs in the nation, who has posted back-to-back seasons with 1,000 scrimmage yards. Receivers Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, who had strong seasons last year, are expected to continue their upward trajectory. On defense, the team revamped their defensive line, highlighted by the addition of transfer Tyler Baron, who recorded 10.5 sacks last season. Senior linebacker Francisco Mauigoa returns to provide stability and leadership within the unit. With a relatively open ACC race this year, Miami is well-positioned to compete. If all goes according to plan, the Hurricanes should easily reach double-digit wins and make some noise in the College Football Playoff.
North Carolina
2023 record: 8-5 (4-4)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +3600; Win Total: o4.5 -152
Coach: Mack Brown (107-73)
Mack Brown has enjoyed a strong start to his second stint at North Carolina, with four winning seasons out of five. However, this year may present challenges. Transfer Max Johnson, who is expected to succeed Drake Maye, aims to return to his 2021 LSU form. Fortunately for Johnson, star running back Omarion Hampton returns after leading the ACC in rushing and ranking fifth nationally with 1,504 yards. Hampton will be the centerpiece of the offense, helping to alleviate some pressure from Johnson. Senior receiver JJ Jones, who led the team in receiving last season, is back, and the tight end duo of John Copenhaver and Bryson Nesbit could be the best in the nation, playing a crucial role in the passing attack. Despite Hampton likely toting the rock often, the Tar Heels may struggle to exceed six wins this year.
NC State
2023 record: 9-4 (6-2)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +600; Win Total: o8.5 -134
Coach: Dave Doeren (81-58)
After four consecutive seasons with at least eight wins, NC State faces significant changes but remains hopeful for continued success. Adding three-time Sun Belt Player of the Year Grayson McCall at quarterback helps mitigate the loss of Brennan Armstrong, who led the team in both passing and rushing last year. Former Duke running back Jordan Waters, coming off a 12-touchdown season, brings optimism for an improved run game. Standout sophomore receiver Kevin Concepcion is expected to be the focal point of the passing attack again and should continue his ascension. Hopefully, Ohio State transfer Noah Rogers will help take some load off Concepcion, though. On defense, while the departure of Payton Wilson is a major loss, Sean Brown and Devan Boykin return to help minimize the dropoff in performance. While predicting nine to ten wins might be ambitious, improved offensive play could make this more achievable.
Pittsburgh
2023 record: 3-9 (2-6)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +12000; Win Total: o5.5 +116
Coach: Pat Narduzzi (65-50)
Pitt’s performance leveled out in 2023 following the departure of key players to both the NFL and the transfer portal over the past few seasons. This year doesn’t look much better for the Panthers. They are expected to start Nate Yarnell, an inexperienced quarterback who has been with the program but has yet to run the show. Rodney Hammond returns at running back and will share carries with transfer Desmond Ried, who is coming off an 800-yard rushing season at Western Carolina. Despite losing Bub Means, the Panthers still have Konata Mumpfield and standout tight end Gavin Bartholomew, who has accumulated 938 receiving yards in his career. On defense, both starting safeties return after leading the team in tackles last season, which is a positive sign for maintaining defensive stability. However, with an inexperienced quarterback and a lack of standout skill players, it seems likely that the Panthers will struggle to improve on their record from last season.
Southern Methodist
2023 record: 11-3 (8-0)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +1200; Win Total: o8.5 +104
Coach: Rhett Lashlee (18-9)
Under Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs have avoided losing seasons, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise this year. Breakout sophomore quarterback Preston Stone returns after a standout season in which he passed for 3,197 yards, ranking fourth in the ACC. All three of their top running backs are back, each surpassing 400 rushing yards and averaging over 5 yards per touch. Jaylan Knighton is expected to lead the group again. In the receiving corps, all three top starters return, along with star tight end RJ Maryland, who set a career high with 518 receiving yards and tied for the team lead with 7 touchdowns. Defensively, most starters are returning, with the addition of nose tackle Anthony Booker Jr., who has had two strong seasons prior. With this, they should be a solid unit again this year. Given the continuity and their previous conference dominance, SMU could very well win the conference and at worst make a significant impact in the college playoffs.
Stanford
2023 record: 3-9 (2-7)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +50000; Win Total: o3.5 -170
Coach: Troy Taylor (3-9)
Coming off their fifth consecutive losing season, Stanford is aiming for even modest improvement, though prospects look challenging. Junior Ashton Daniels returns at quarterback, looking to build on a promising debut season. He’ll have standout receiver Elic Ayomanor, fresh off a 1,000-yard season, as a key target to aid him. The departure of tight end Benjamin Yurosek is significant, but Sam Roush, who performed well in Yurosek’s absence last year, showed enough to instill confidence that he can handle an expanded role. In the backfield, Sedrick Irvin and Ryan Butler will lead the run game, hoping to improve on last year’s inefficiencies. Most defensive starters are back, which could help the unit improve on what was a rough go last year. However, with a tougher conference schedule and increased travel, it will be difficult for Stanford to exceed four wins this year.
Syracuse
2023 record: 6-7 (2-6)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +6000; Win Total: o7.5 +116
Coach: Fran Brown (new)
Syracuse embarks on a new era under head coach Fran Brown, with a mix of optimism and uncertainty. The arrival of Kyle McCord from Ohio State brings hope for an elevated passing game. However, given Brown’s defensive background and the strength of the offensive line, the team will likely focus on the run. LeQuint Allen, coming off a 1,000-yard season, is set to lead the charge in the backfield. The receiver room poses a significant question mark with many key players having departed. Receiver-turned-tight end Oronde Gadsden II, returning from a Lisfranc injury, could emerge as a top target after showing promise in 2022. Defensively, Marlowe Wax is a standout, having ranked fourth in the ACC with 110 tackles and leading the conference with four forced fumbles. He led a strong unit last year and now with Brown’s defensive ideology, the unit is expected to be even stronger this year. Syracuse is likely to be competitive in most games, but I don’t know how many they will win, reaching six wins would be an accomplishment.
Virginia
2023 record: 3-9 (2-6)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +17000; Win Total: o4.5 -110
Coach: Tony Elliott (6-16)
Virginia has struggled to find consistency since 2019, and this season may not bring significant change. The quarterback battle continues between Tony Muskett and Anthony Colandrea, with Muskett currently slated to start. Senior running back Kobe Pace is expected to take on a larger role, aiming to improve a run game that was ineffective last year. The passing attack faces a challenge with the departure of Malik Washington. Malachi Fields, who had a solid 2023 with 811 yards and 5 touchdowns, will step up. Grad transfer Chris Tyree, limited at Notre Dame, hopes to make an impact in a more featured role. Defensively, the team returns many starters from a unit that allowed over 33 points per game last season. The hope is that continuity will lead to improvement. For Cavaliers fans, reaching five wins would be a notable achievement, as another bowl game appearance seems unlikely this year.
Virginia Tech
2023 record: 7-6 (5-3)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +1000; Win Total: o8.5 +124
Coach: Brent Pry (10-14)
After a strong 2023 campaign, Virginia Tech enters this season with high expectations, thanks to the return of numerous offensive starters. Kyron Drones, who had a notable debut season with 2,085 passing yards and 818 rushing yards, will lead the offense again. Running backs Bhayshul Tuten and Malachi Thomas, both effective last year, are set to enhance the run game. At receiver, Da’Quan Felton and Jaylin Lane are back, looking to build on their impressive performances. Defensively, the Hokies return many key contributors from a unit that allowed only 23.9 points per game last year. Additionally, Sam Brumfield joins from Middle Tennessee, where he recorded 81 tackles, strengthening the linebacker corps. The Hokies’ success will likely hinge on their defense and run game. With this approach, they should be able to match their win total from last year, though surpassing it may be hard.
Wake Forest
2023 record: 4-8 (1-7)
2024 odds: ACC Winner: +32000; Win Total: o4.5 -152
Coach: Dave Clawson (63-61)
Wake Forest has struggled in recent years, and the outlook for 2024 suggests more of the same. Transfer quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who had a solid track record at Boise State and Louisiana Tech, brings some optimism, but he’ll be working with a limited set of weapons. In the backfield, Demond Claiborne, who led the team in rushing last season, returns along with Tate Carney, who will have an expanded role. The receiver room is open for competition after Taylor Morin, who had 617 receiving yards last year and is expected to take on a larger role. Defensively, the team returns Dylan Hazen, who led in tackles, and Jasheen Davis, who led them in sacks from last season. This continuity on defense offers hope that they can maintain their solid performance from a year ago. Their overall success will depend on what they can get out of the offense in 2024, if they improve there is a chance they can reach six wins, but that seems unlikely.
