NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The Sun Belt has moved to the best of the group of five conferences after another stellar season. James Madison won the east in their first year as an FBS squad, but unfortunately once again is not eligible for a bowl due to the incompetence of the NCAA. The Dukes should still be good if properly motivated, but they’ll have to hold off Coastal Carolina, Marshall and App State. The west has its own tough race with four teams towards the top in South Alabama, Troy, Southern Miss and Louisiana. This conference has done everything right quietly behind the scenes and deserves a lot of credit.
Sun Belt East
Appalachian State
Win Total: Over 6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Under 6.5 (+105, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: Gardner-Webb, @ UNC, East Carolina, @ Wyoming
Schedule Notes
Last year App State lost 63-61 to North Carolina in week one at home so we’ll see if they can get a better result week two this year on the road. Three of the team’s first five are away from home. They host Coastal Carolina, Marshall and Southern Miss while also playing at James Madison and Georgia State.
QB Battle
Ryan Burger vs. Joey Aguilar
Roster Notes
Two coordinators are gone so taking over the offense is former OC Frank Ponce while the new defensive leader is Scott Sloan who was the co-DC at Army. That side of the ball has just four starters back with Jalen McLeod transferring to Auburn after the spring. The offense has a few more returning starters, but a massive hole at QB with two relatively inexperienced signal callers competing. Nate Noel and the top three receivers are back so the cupboard isn’t completely bare, but there’s a lot to worry about.
Prediction
I came up with 6-7 wins so no play here.
Coastal Carolina
Over 7.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Under 7.5 (+110, FanDuel)
Non-Conference Games: @ UCLA, Jacksonville State, Duquesne, @ Army
Schedule Notes
The Chanticleers open up with a long road trip to UCLA, before three straight at home. They then have five of their next seven on the road including three straight at one point. The team hosts Marshall and JMU while playing at App State and Georgia Southern.
Quarterback
Grayson McCall
Roster Notes
Despite losing their head coach, Coastal was able to keep McCall in the fold. That was the first victory for Tim Beck who is taking over for Jamey Chadwell who went to Liberty. With McCall under center, it’ll be interesting to see how this offense runs as a lot of players are back. Braydon Bennett, CJ Beasley and Reese White form a great backfield with the top three receivers in the fold as well. The Chanticleers defense will decide how the season goes because they were not good last year. Six of the top seven tacklers are back, but a lot of sacks departed.
Prediction
Another solid number since I’m coming up with 7-8 wins.
Georgia Southern
Over 6 (-115, DraftKings)
Under 6.5 (-145, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: The Citadel, UAB, @ Wisconsin, @ Ball State
Schedule Notes
The Eagles have an interesting game week two at home against fellow G5 school UAB. They also have a pair of stretches with three road games over four weeks with one beginning in mid September and one in November. They have to travel to JMU, Marshall and App State.
Quarterback
Tulsa transfer Davis Brin
Roster Notes
Clay Helton did good things with this team last year and the pieces are in place for success once again in 2023. Brin is a solid replacement for Kyle Vantrease under center and he’s got Khaleb Hood and Derwin Burgess Jr back out wide. We’ll see what Kentucky transfer Keaton Upshaw can do. He could be a great red zone target standing at 6-7. The defense has just three starters back, but they are excited about Bowling Green transfer CB Davon Ferguson and Texas A&M LB Tarian Lee. This side of the ball will be the one that holds GSU back from being a lot better.
Prediction
If I was to play anything here, it would be over 6 for the push potential. If they figure out defense, this team could be a real sleeper.
Georgia State
Over 5.5 (+145, Caesars)
Under 5.5 (-150, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: Rhode Island, Connecticut, @ Charlotte, @ LSU
Schedule Notes
The Panthers’ whole schedule is a set of back-to-backs at home followed by back-to-backs on the road. They host Troy, Marshall, JMU and App State while also playing at Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern.
Quarterback
Darren Grainger
Roster Notes
The Panthers have Grainger under center so that’s a solid place to start. Marcus Carroll and KZ Adams form a good duo in the backfield while four of the top five WR’s return. They really like Merrimack transfer Jacari Carter at receiver as well. Georgia State’s defense saw Jeffrey Clark leave for Louisville in the spring and he had 9.5 tackles for loss. They did pick up Kevin Swint from Clemson though. The secondary is a massive question mark.
Prediction
I want to play the over at a plus price but their Sun Belt schedule is the hardest it could possibly be.
James Madison
Over 8 (-125, DraftKings)
Under 8.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games
Bucknell, @ UVA, @ Utah State, UConn
Schedule Notes
The Dukes have an ugly three game road trip beginning in week two that sees them go from Virginia to Alabama to Utah. The payoff comes after that with five of the final eight at home in Harrisonburg. They get App State there while traveling to Coastal Carolina and Marshall.
Quarterback Battle
Arizona transfer Jordan McCloud vs. Alonza Barnett
Roster Notes
I’ve often said that JMU’s offense is poetry in motion when it’s clicking. Todd Centeio is gone so we’ll see if McCloud or Barnett can make this unit continue to go. Kaelon Black and Latrele Palmer form a solid backfield while the WR room brings in North Dakota State transfer Phoenix Sproles and St. Francis transfer Elijah Sarratt who was a freshman All-American in 2022. The key for the offense is that the offensive line is intact and will be very tough to beat. The defense should be spectacular even though Isaac Ukwu left for a power five program. They may have to pick up the slack early while the offense figures things out.
Prediction
Slightest of leans to the under, but wouldn’t be surprised if they won nine games.
Marshall
Over 7 (-115, DraftKings)
Under 7.5 (-144, FanDuel)
Non-Conference Games
Albany, @ ECU, Virginia Tech, @ NC State
Schedule Notes
It’s an extremely tough non-conference slate for the Thundering Herd who has two ACC opponents and an interesting trip to East Carolina. Overall they have three of four at home then four of their next five on the road including trips to Coastal Carolina and App State.
Quarterback
Cam Fancher
Roster Notes
Marshall’s defense carried them a lot of last season especially when the offense went into a few lulls. Jason Semore is the new defensive coordinator and he’s got only four returning starters. Thankfully one of them is Owen Porter who had 9.5 sacks in 2022. Another is Micah Abraham who is one of the best G5 corners in the country. There will be a step back, but how much is the question. The offense has a solid base with Fancher back as well as RB Rasheen Ali who missed most of last season due to injury. There are four starters returning on the OL so that bodes well for the ground game.
Prediction
Another solid number as I came up with 7ish wins for the Herd.
Old Dominion
Over 3.5 (-120, DraftKings)
Under 3.5 (+128, FanDuel)
Non-Conference Games
@ Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Texas A&M Commerce, @ Liberty
Schedule Notes
ODU gets their in-state rival to open things up once again although this time it’s on the road and it’s off a victory over them last year. They then have three straight at home after that before five of their next seven on the road. The road trips are tough at Marshall, Southern Miss and JMU with the home matchups including Coastal Carolina and App State.
Quarterback Battle
Fordham transfer Grant Wilson vs. Jack Shields
Roster Notes
The Monarchs have a new offensive coordinator in Kevin Decker who comes over from Fordham. He’s got his work cut out for him with RB Blake Watson and WR Ali Jennings gone along with QB Hayden Wolff who transferred out after the spring. There are some decent WR’s back, but the offensive line is also lacking in experience. The defense is led by LB Jason Henderson who led the FBS with 186 tackles last year. They lost DT Alonzo Ford who transferred to Penn State after the spring. There’s not a ton of reason to believe in this team so Ricky Rahne is in for a challenge in year four in Norfolk.
Prediction
I’ve got to take a shot on the under especially at +128 on Fanduel. It could be a long year.
Sun Belt West
Arkansas State
Over 4.5 (-115, Caesars)
Under 4.5 (EVEN, DraftKings)
Non-Conference Games
@ Oklahoma, Memphis, Stony Brook, @ UMass
Schedule Notes
ASU has three straight at home after a brutal opener at Oklahoma. They then have three of their next four on the road including trips to Troy and ULM. November features road trips to South Alabama and Marshall to go with home tilts against Louisiana and Texas State.
Quarterback
Colorado transfer J.T. Shrout
Roster Notes
The Red Wolves are almost starting over on offense with just two starters back, but WR Corey Rucker transferred back to the program after spending time in the SEC. He’ll pair up with Syracuse transfer Courtney Jackson to be weapons for Shrout who didn’t have great numbers at Colorado, but also didn’t have a lot to work with. The defense has had some issues, but added a few transfers including former Kansas Jayhawk Gavin Potter. I really like their safeties as Trevian Thomas and Eddie Smith are some of the best in the Sun Belt. Butch Jones has gone 5-19 his first two seasons in Jonesboro so he may need a really good year or else he could be looking for a new job.
Prediction
I’ve got 4-5 wins so no play.
Louisiana
Over 6.5 (-165, DraftKings)
Under 7.5 (-122, FanDuel)
Non-Conference Games
Northwestern State, @ UAB, Buffalo, @ Minnesota
Schedule Notes
This team has three of their first five on the road including the conference opener week two at Old Dominion. They have four of their final six at home and get to host Southern Miss and Georgia State while traveling to Troy and South Alabama.
Quarterback
Chandler Fields
Roster Notes
Last year the duo of Fields and Ben Wooldridge worked out well together and they are both back once again. Neither suited up for the spring, but there isn’t a concern about their week one availability. There’s some experience all around the offensive side of the ball with a lot of it being up front on the offensive line. The defense isn’t as lucky with only three starters back. They lost several players on this side of the ball to the transfer portal in the spring. Bowl eligibility is a possibility if they grow up fast.
Prediction
Under 7.5 may be worth a look here.
South Alabama
Over 7.5 (-135, BetMGM)
Under 8 (-115, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games
@ Tulane, SE Louisiana, @ Oklahoma State, Central Michigan
Schedule Notes
The Jaguars alternate road and home games early on with some brutal September trips to Tulane, Oklahoma State and James Madison. The payoff comes in the middle of October when four of the final six are at home including Marshall and Southern Miss.
Quarterback
Carter Bradley
Roster Notes
The Jaguars were a 10 win team last year and have a lot of returning starters. The offense is in very good shape as Bradley brings his 28 passing touchdowns back. He’s got his main weapons in La’Damian Webb at running back and Devin Voisin and Caulin Lacy at WR. The defense has its six top tacklers returning as part of nine starters overall. The only weakness may be at cornerback where they need to find some new players, but there are a pair of really solid safeties to potentially clean up some mistakes.
Prediction
I’ve got 7-8 wins for this team. The Jags have a tough Sun Belt schedule. There’s a good chance I will be on them as an underdog in week three at Oklahoma State.
Southern Miss
Over 5 (EVEN, DraftKings)
Under 5.5 (-150, FanDuel)
Non-Conference Games
Alcorn State, @ Florida State, Tulane, @ Mississippi State
Schedule Notes
Wow, this is a tough non-conference slate spread out pretty much over the whole schedule. Four of the first six are at home, but then four of the next five are on the road before finishing off with Troy. The wins better come early for them potentially.
Quarterback Battle
Houston transfer Holman Edwards vs. Clemson transfer Billy Wiles
Roster Notes
Will Hall has had some creative offenses and will have to do the same once again in 2023 with an uneasy quarterback situation. Neither signal caller played a snap last year so whoever gets the job will have to rely on a solid ground game led by Frank Gore Jr. and Memphis transfer Rodrigues Clark. The offensive line should be tough and there are several skill position guys back, but once again who is getting them the ball. The Golden Eagles lost their defensive coordinator, but has all of their starters back on the defensive line. Problem is that the secondary needs to be almost completely rebuilt.
Prediction
I’m going under here. Wins better come early because there are a ton of tough road games late.
Texas State
Over 4 (-110, Caesars)
Under 4.5 (-165, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games
@ Baylor, @ UTSA, Jackson State, Nevada
Schedule Notes
A new head coach and essentially a new team have to hit the road for the first two games and may give up 60 in each of those contests. They host Troy and South Alabama towards the back end of the season, but how will they be entering those contests and who will be starting.
Quarterback Battle
Arkansas transfer Malik Hornsby vs. Auburn transfer TJ Finley
Roster Notes
GJ Kinne was highly successful at Incarnate Word, but this is a complete rebuild all over the roster. They brought in 37 transfers and that’s because there is exactly one starter returning on offense and three on defense. Calvin Hill and Lincoln Pare were not a bad duo at running back, but Pare recently tore his ACL and is out for the season. The defense has a lot of juniors and seniors on the roster, but are they ready for the big time.
Prediction
I like under 4.5 but the juice is insane. Consider the Under 4 at Caesars but be prepared for a potential push.
Troy
Over 8.5 (EVEN, FanDuel)
Under 8.5 (-110, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games
Stephen F Austin, @ Kansas State, Western Kentucky, @ Army
Schedule Notes
The Trojans have four of their first six at home, but the road trips are tough to Kansas State and Georgia State. They won at Western Kentucky last year and beat Army as well so both will be looking for revenge. The November 2nd contest at home vs. South Alabama may be very important for the division race.
Quarterback
Gunnar Watson
Roster Notes
After a 12-2 season, Jon Sumrall will be hard pressed to follow that up although the offense should be spectacular. Watson has Kimani Vidal back at running back and he rushed for 1,132 yards last season. The WR corps took a hit when Tez Johnson transferred to Oregon. The defense may take a step back with their coordinator going to Tulane as well as the loss of LB Carlton Martial who had 135 tackles. Still, TJ Jackson, Richard Jibunor and Javon Solomon are a really solid trio at defensive end.
Prediction
Really solid number as I come up with 8-9 wins.
ULM
Over 3 (-115, Caesars)
Under 3.5 (-150, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games
Army, Lamar, @ Texas A&M, @ Ole Miss
Schedule Notes
Two SEC road games are never a good thing for a Sun Belt opponent. Four of the first five are at home, but the two Sun Belt opponents are App State and South Alabama. The rest of the slate is brutal with five of seven away from home.
Quarterback
Jiya Wright
Roster Notes
Terry Bowden brought in some interesting transfers for the running back position in Isaiah Woullard (Ole Miss) and Thad Franklin Jr (Miami). They may need the ground game plenty because Wright doesn’t have a ton of experience under center. He does have Tyrone Howell back at wide receiver. The defense doesn’t have a ton returning from a unit that forced just eight turnovers and gave up almost 35 points per contest in 2022. Bowden needs an improvement from a pair of 4-8 seasons while at the school so far.
Prediction
Lean to the under here, but need the 3.5. There’s not a lot to like about the Warhawks.
