NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The MAC is always one of my favorite previews to do, and the last two years I’ve picked the winner with Toledo and Kent State taking the crowns. The East division could be relatively wide open with Miami (OH), Ohio and Buffalo all having a shot. In the West, the Rockets figure to be the winner, but Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois are potential threats.
East Division
Akron
Win total: Over 3.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Under 3.5 (+130, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: @ Temple, Morgan State, @ Kentucky, @ Indiana
Schedule Notes
It’s not an easy start to the year for the Zips, who have three of their first four on the road including two Power-5 trips. They also have a stretch beginning in mid-October where they play four of five on the road. The home MAC games aren’t easy with NIU, Buffalo and Ohio coming to Akron.
Quarterback
DJ Irons
Roster Notes
Irons has been pretty good under center despite the fact Akron had just two wins last season. They scored 28 or more five times in 2022. The offense has two top WRs returning in Daniel George and Alex Adams as well as a solid RB in Miami transfer Lorenzo Lingard. Defensively, seven of the top 11 tacklers are back, although they lost Bubba Arslanian, who announced a few weeks ago that he is leaving the team. That’s a huge piece of the unit gone, so we’ll see who picks up the slack.
Prediction
I come up with 3-4 wins, so no play for me here.
Bowling Green
Over 4.5 (-142, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 4.5 (+125, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: @ Liberty, EIU, @ Michigan, @ Georgia Tech
Schedule Notes
Five of the first seven are on the road including three straight starting at the end of September. The Falcons host Ball State, Ohio and Toledo in MAC play while playing at Miami (OH) as well.
QB Battle
Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak vs. BC transfer Daelen Menard vs. Camden Orth
Roster Notes
Scott Loeffler has struggled mightily as head coach at Bowling Green, going 13-29 in four seasons. He has to find a quarterback to lead this offense with Bazelak probably being the leader. There’s a little bit of talent at the skill positions with Ta’ron Keith at RB and Odieu Hilaire and Austin Osborne at WR. The offensive line should be pretty strong with four returnees. The defense has six starters back, and this group had almost three sacks per game last year. Losing their two top tacklers as well as defensive lineman Karl Brooks won’t help, though.
Prediction
I came up with five-ish wins here. May put a sprinkle on under 4.5 at +125 on BetMGM in case things don’t work out.
Buffalo
Over 6 (-110, Caesars)
Under 6.5 (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: @ Wisconsin, Fordham, Liberty, @ Louisiana
Schedule Notes
The Bulls have two back-to-back home game scenarios, which isn’t bad for a MAC school. They have to survive a very tough start to their season playing in Madison against the Badgers. UB gets Ohio at home and Toledo and Miami-Ohio on the road.
Quarterback
Cole Snyder
Roster Notes
There are new coordinators on both sides of the ball, but neither of them ever called plays, so it’ll be interesting to see what they can do. Buffalo is going to rely on their ground game early as they try to find reliable WR’s. Luckily 88% of that rushing attack is back led by Ron Cook Jr. and Mike Washington. On defense, there are just five starters back, but two of them are Marcus Fuqua, who finished third-team AP All-American, and Shaun Dolac, who had 97 solo tackles.
Prediction
Six is a pretty solid number, so no play here. The defense should carry them early as they play lower-scoring games.
Kent State
Over 2.5 (Even, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 2.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: @ UCF, @ Arkansas, CCSU, @ Fresno State
Schedule Notes
The Golden Flashes are clearly going for the payday, because they have a ridiculous non-conference slate. They’ll get the win over the FCS team, but the other three contests are going to be very difficult. They play at Ohio and Ball State in conference while hosting NIU and Miami (OH)
QB Battle
Griffin Brewster vs. Tommy Ulatowski
Roster Notes
There’s a brand new coaching staff, with former Minnesota RB coach Kenni Burns taking over as the head man. His offense has zero returning starters and 19% production returning overall. The defense has just four starters returning, but their new coordinator was the director of recruiting at Troy previously. He has a little coordinating experience, but this team could be a huge disaster especially early.
Prediction
I hate playing extremely low or high totals. There are very few win opportunities, so I get it, but I’m not taking a side here.
Miami (OH)
Over 6.5 (-170 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 7 (-105, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: @ Miami, @ UMass, @ Cincinnati, Delaware State
Schedule Notes
The RedHawks have a horrendous start to the season with four of the first five on the road including tough trips to Miami and Cincinnati. They have just five home games, and two of those are Toledo and Buffalo. If they can survive the early stretch, I think they can get some wins later on.
Quarterback
Brett Gabbert
Roster Notes
This is a compliment, but it feels like Gabbert has been at the school forever. He’s got Keyon Mozee and Kenny Tracy back in the backfield, while the offensive line is pretty solid up front. Weapons-wise, Gabbert will rely on Jack Coldiron and Miles Marshall early on. The defense has six starters back from a unit that was one of the best in the conference in 2022. Losing Ryan McWood and his 135 tackles hurts, but Matthew Salopek had 124 tackles and returns. The front seven should be pretty strong to help a secondary that should still be good but lost their best corner John Saunders to Ole Miss.
Prediction
7 is a very realistic number for the Redhawks. They are a very live candidate to win the eastern division.
Ohio
Over 7.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 7.5 (+105, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: @ San Diego State, LIU, @ FAU, Iowa State
Schedule Notes
The Bobcats alternate road and home games for the first eight contests of the season. Three of their final five are at home as they host Miami (OH) and Central Michigan with trips to NIU and Buffalo in MAC play.
Quarterback
Kurtis Rourke
Roster Notes
The MAC East champs return 14 starters from a team that went 10-4 overall. The offense should be awesome with Sieh Bangura back at running back and Sam Wiglusz returning at WR. We’ll see how healthy Rourke is after he had an ACL injury at the end of last season. The defense has plenty of seniors on it, and they’ll be hungry to rectify last year’s loss in the title game. We’ll see how the defensive line holds up with Vonnie Watkins back but not a lot else up front.
Prediction
Slight lean to the under. May consider it at a plus price at Bet MGM, but I’m not in love with it.
MAC West
Ball State
Over 4.5 (-155, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 5.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: @ Kentucky, @ Georgia, Indiana State, Georgia Southern
Schedule Notes
The Cardinals begin the season with two SEC road trips, which means they’ll be starting 0-2. They’ve got two other back-to-back road game sets as well. The good thing is that means their six home contests are all in two-game sets. Ball State hosts Toledo and Miami (OH).
Quarterback
Texas State transfer Layne Hatcher
Roster Notes
Hatcher has a solid resume, but he’s also been at multiple schools in his career already. They managed to get Marquez Cooper to come over from Kent State, and he’ll provide a stabilizing force in the backfield. The WR room is young and inexperienced, so it’s important that Brady Hunt and Tanner Koziol play well at tight end together. The defense has experience on every level, so that’s going to help them. The linebacker group is the strongest of them all, as Clayton Coll and Cole Pearce had nearly 200 tackles combined last year. Problem is that the secondary is very leaky.
Prediction
Lean to over 4.5 wins, but not at that price. Caesars has 5 wins at (-105) to the over, so if you like that it’s probably the better play.
Central Michigan
Over 5.5 (+110, BetMGM)
Under 5.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: @ Michigan State, New Hampshire, @ Notre Dame, @ South Alabama
Schedule Notes
It’s a brutal start to the year with four of their first six on the road including two ridiculous trips to Michigan State and Notre Dame. The Chips host Toledo and Northern Illinois but have to travel to Buffalo and Ohio in MAC play.
QB Battle
Jase Bauer vs. Bert Emanuel Jr.
Roster Notes
Never a good sign for a team when they leave the spring and still have no clear leader at quarterback. It doesn’t help that RB Lew Nichols graduated and the only returning offensive starters are on the offensive line. The defense has 16 of their top 19 tacklers back including CB Donte Kent, who had 15 pass breakups last year. They forced only 10 turnovers last year and will need a lot more of those to help out the offense that could struggle to score especially early.
Prediction
Lean to the under here. I’m very concerned with their offense and the defense not being able to do enough.
Eastern Michigan
Over 7 (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 7.5 (Even, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: Howard, @ Minnesota, UMass, @ Jacksonville State
Schedule Notes
The opponents for the most part aren’t the toughest for the Eagles in non-conference play, but two of the games are on the road. The Eagles have a stretch of three of four at home beginning in early October. They get Ball State at home while playing at Toledo and NIU.
Quarterback
Austin Smith
Roster Notes
Chris Creighton teams are great ATS as an underdog, and this team has the makings of another one that will keep things close when they can. Austin Smith will be interesting at quarterback, as he played a little last year running it 61 times to 118 pass attempts. Samson Evans and Jaylon Jackson are a solid RB duo with Tanner Knue back at WR. The offensive line is a question mark, although Chris Mayo comes over from West Virginia. The defense has eight starters back including Chase Kline and Joe Sparacio at linebacker, who combined for 180 tackles.
Prediction
Pretty solid number. Slightly lean to the under, but nothing official with Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
Over 5.5 (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 6.5 (-165, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: @ BC, Southern Illinois, @ Nebraska, Tulsa
Schedule Notes
There are some winnable games for the Huskies the first month of the season. They don’t ease into MAC play, though, with a road trip to Toledo right off the bat. Four of their final six are at home with Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan all coming to DeKalb.
Quarterback
Rocky Lombardi
Roster Notes
The Huskies are better than the three-win team they were last year, but things didn’t go their way injury-wise. Lombardi is a great place to start for improvement, as he’s run this offense well in the past. His offensive line is pretty much intact, so that’s good. The skill positions have some intriguing returnees in RB Antario Brown and WR Trayvon Rudolph, who missed last year due to injury. We’ll see what Iowa transfer Gavin Williams can add to this side of the ball as well. The defense has 17 of their top 24 tacklers back but did lose LB Daveren Rayner who went to Kentucky after spring ball.
Prediction
I love the over 5.5 wins. This is a very talented team that let injuries ruin their 2022 campaign. If they stay healthy they could approach 8 wins.
Toledo
Over 8.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Under 9 (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: @ Illinois, Texas Southern, San Jose State, @ UMass
Schedule Notes
The Rockets have an interesting schedule layout. They open with a tough Power Five road trip and then have four straight at home. Five of their final seven are on the road, including three straight in early October.
Quarterback
Dequan Finn
Roster Notes
The MAC champs should hit the ground running offensively with nine starters back, including a really good offensive line. Finn has two of his best WRs returning in Jerjuan Newton and Devin Maddox and his leading rusher in Jacquez Stuart as well. The Rockets secondary was 12th last year in pass defense and is intact once again in 2023. They may have to cover a little bit longer with some of their front seven gone from last year. If they stay healthy, this team is the best in the MAC once again.
Prediction
Lean to the over. This Rockets team could approach 10 wins but always seems to lose at least one they shouldn’t.
Western Michigan
Over 3.5 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 4.5 (-184, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: Saint Francis, @ Syracuse, @ Iowa, @ Mississippi State
Schedule Notes
After the first FCS game, the Broncos have six of eight on the road which is going to be really tough for a new head coach. There isn’t a friendly stretch to this slate either, so it’s going to be a long season.
QB Battle
Treyson Bourguet vs. Jack Salopek vs. ODU transfer Hayden Wolff
Roster Notes
Last year, this team was a TT under bettor’s dream. Their offense was pathetic, scoring fewer than 21 points eight times. There’s a new head coach in Lance Taylor, who was the OC at Louisville. This offseason saw RB Sean Tyler, WR Corey Crooms, DE Andre Carter and DT Braden Fiske all leave for Power-5 programs. They managed to get Wolff from Old Dominion to be in the signal-caller race as well as RB Keyshawn King from Virginia Tech. The Broncos top seven tacklers are gone from the defense and return only two starters.
Prediction
Caesars is offering Under 4 at -150, so that’s where I’m going as it gives me push potential. It could be a long season in Kalamazoo.
