College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Conference USA saw a lot of turnover this offseason and is even crazier right now than it has been in the past. The team that most think will be in the mix for the title is Liberty, who is coming off being an independent. Joining them is fellow independent New Mexico State as well as former FCS participants Jacksonville State and Sam Houston. It’ll be interesting to see where this conference goes from here because this is a very odd group of teams as it currently stands.
FIU
Win Total: Over 3 (-145, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 3.5 (+105, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: Maine, North Texas, @ UConn, @ Arkansas
Schedule Notes
The Panthers open on the road in conference against Louisiana Tech. They follow that up with three of their next four at home. The schedule gets really tough at the end of the year with road games at MTSU and Arkansas followed by a home matchup with Western Kentucky.
Quarterback
Grayson James
Roster Notes
The transfer portal ravaged this team with two starting tackles, WR Tyrese Chambers and TE Rivaldo Fairweather all departing. It didn’t help either that RB Lexington Joseph tore his ACL. James showed a little bit of mobility and mixed in solid performances with some poor ones as well. The defense picked up a few interesting transfers in LB Avery Huff from Miami, DE Claude Larkins from NC State and safety JoJo Evans from Kent State.
Prediction
If I played anything, it would be the over 3 wins because of the push potential.
Jacksonville State
Over 4.5 (+115, BetMGM)
Under 5.5 (-17,0 Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: ETSU, @ Coastal Carolina, Eastern Michigan, @ South Carolina
Schedule Notes
The Gamecocks ease their way into the season with three of their first four at home. They host Liberty and Western Kentucky in conference while traveling to MTSU and New Mexico State.
Quarterback
Zion Webb
Roster Notes
Rich Rodriguez is back in the FBS with his Gamecocks. There are eight starters back on offense including Webb who got approved for a seventh year of eligibility by the NCAA. It’s nice to have a lot of starters back, but will they be ready to make the jump to a higher level. The defense was very good in the FCS, but they allowed 54 points to Tulsa last year. I like their defensive line led by J-Rock Swain and Chris Hardie.
Prediction
Slight lean to the over 4.5 wins, especially at a plus price.
Liberty
Over 8.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Under 8.5 (+120, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: Bowling Green, @ Buffalo, ODU, UMass
Schedule Notes
The Flames schedule lays out really nicely for a successful season. They begin with three of their first five at home and finish with three of their final four in Lynchburg as well. The toughest road trip is to Western Kentucky Oct. 24.
QB Battle
Johnathan Bennett vs. Kaidon Salter vs. Southern Miss transfer Trey Lowe
Roster Notes
Liberty has a new coaching staff as Jamey Chadwell comes over from Coastal Carolina. Chadwell brought Willy Korn and Newland Isaac with him to help out with an offense that does not have a ton of starters back. The QB room is pretty crowded although I expect Bennett or Salter to win the job. Whomever it is will be happy to have WR CJ Daniels back after coming off an ACL injury. The Flames lost RB Dae Dae Hunter to transfer after the spring so more will be expected from Wake transfer Quinton Cooley. The defense is going to be a massive question mark with only three starters back, but they found some success last year. Can they do so again with pretty much a brand-new group?
Prediction
Slight lean to the under especially at a plus price. I have this team around 8-9 wins because of a really easy schedule.
Louisiana Tech
Over 5.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Under 6 (-125, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: @ SMU, Northwestern State, North Texas, @ Nebraska
Schedule Notes
Three of the first four are at home for the Bulldogs who open things up with FIU in Ruston. They alternate home and road games beginning in October and have to travel to Liberty Nov. 4.
Quarterback
Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier
Roster Notes
Bachmeier brings a ton of experience to the offense and is a pretty good fit for Sonny Cumbie’s system which was very hot and cold last season. Miami Ohio transfer RB Tyre Shelton and Nebraska WR Decoldest Crawford are two of the many other transfers this school picked up. They’ll complement WR Smoke Harris nicely. The defense was horrendous in 2022 so they went out and added double-digit transfers to try to fix it. Because of that, we’ll see if there’s improvement from a unit that gave up 6.1 yards per carry in 2022.
Prediction
I was on their over last year and lost. I think I’m going to be on their over again especially at the cheaper price for the 5.5 on BetMGM. FanDuel and DraftKings are way too juiced.
Middle Tennessee
Over 6.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Under 6.5 (+116, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: @ Alabama, @ Missouri, Murray State, Colorado State
Schedule Notes
The Blue Raiders will most likely start the year 0-2, so it’s important for them to come out of those contests relatively injury free. They get four of their next five at home before three of their final five on the road. MTSU has road trips to WKU and Liberty.
Quarterback
Nicholas Vattiato
Roster Notes
MTSU will be relying a lot on their defense to keep games close and low scoring with eight starters back from a unit that was very good in 2022. Teldrick Ross had 20 pass breakups at cornerback, while safety Tra Fluellen led the team in tackles with over 100 of them. The reason why their games will be low scoring also is because of an offense that could struggle at quarterback. Five starters return there including RB Frank Peasant who ran for 11 touchdowns last season.
Prediction
That last game vs. Sam Houston on the road could decide your win total selection.
New Mexico State
Over 5.5 (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 6.5 (-140, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: UMass, WIU, @ New Mexico, @ Hawaii, @ Auburn
Schedule Notes
The schedule makers did the Aggies no favors. They play seven road games this season, with all of them coming back-to-back or in one case back-to-back-to-back. The good thing for them is that they have two sets of two home games in a row as well.
Quarterback
Diego Pavia
Roster Notes
The Aggies had a tremendous season last year, racking up seven wins and a bowl appearance. Eight starters are back on offense including Pavia who had 19 touchdowns and almost 2,000 total yards of offense between his arm and his legs. Their backfield has plenty of experience while the WR room has their top two players back but is without Justice Powers who stretched the field. The defense was surprisingly good last year, but they lost their top four tacklers. Jerry Kill always has plenty of transfers though so we may not see this side of the ball downgrade that much.
Prediction
5-6 wins so no play here for me.
Sam Houston
Over 3.5 (-140, BetMGM)
Under 4 (Even, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: @ BYU, Air Force, @ Houston, Kennesaw State
Schedule Notes
The Bearkats are on the road for four of their first six games, including road trips to BYU and Houston. They also have to travel to WKU and Liberty. There is a friendly stretch beginning in the middle of October when they have three straight at home, but this thing as a whole is brutal.
QB Battle
Keegan Shoemaker vs. Washington State transfer Xavier Ward vs. North Texas transfer Grant Gunnell
Roster Notes
KC Keeler is a very good coach who has gone 85-27 in nine seasons at the school. The team actually redshirted a lot of players in 2022 considering they weren’t eligible for the postseason due to the transition to FBS. The transfers should improve a lackluster offense, but they need to find better weapons with Cody Chrest gone. The defense could be a little better with eight returnees, but the team’s one FBS game last year was a 31-0 loss to Texas A&M. They have a very nice linebacker duo in Kavian Gaither and Jaylen Phillips.
Prediction
Only potential play here is under 4, but I’m passing.
UTEP
Over 5.5 (-115, Caesars)
Under 5.5 (Even, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: Incarnate Word, @ Northwestern, @ Arizona, UNLV
Schedule Notes
Three of the first five are on the road for the Miners including two power five trips. They start things out in conference at Jacksonville State. From the end of September to the end of the schedule the squad alternates home and road contests with home matchups against WKU and Liberty in the mix.
Quarterback
Gavin Hardison
Roster Notes
The offense should find some success with Hardison back under center. He’s got an offensive line with four starters returning as well as Deion Hankins in the backfield. Finding WRs he trusts in will be important early because most of the group is sophomores and juniors. The defense was an enigma last year as they held Boise State to 10 points while also giving up 37 to Rice. Praise Amawhule is solid up front and Tyrice Knight is a pretty good linebacker after having 95 tackles in 2022. This team always goes the JUCO route it seems, so we’ll see how that goes.
Prediction
Depending on how you think they’ll do in their road games against Jacksonville State and Sam Houston, that’s the side you should take. Should win at least one of those but no guarantee.
Western Kentucky
Over 8 (-130, Caesars)
Under 8.5 (-135, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: USF, Houston Christian, @ Ohio State, @ Troy
Schedule Notes
The Toppers usually challenge themselves out of conference and playing at Ohio State and Troy is no different. That USF contest will be interesting because the offense should find success, but the defense is going to give up a lot of points. In conference, they play at Louisiana Tech and UTEP but also host Liberty and Middle Tennessee.
Quarterback
Austin Reed
Roster Notes
There’s a new offensive coordinator in Drew Hollingshead, who was the WR coach at Mississippi State. He is the fourth different OC in four years at the school, but we know how much Tyson Helton will control that side of the ball. Getting Reed back is huge considering the numbers he put up and he’s got Michael Mathison and Malachi Corley at wide receiver. The offensive line is set on the left side and the run game should be able to be pretty solid as well. The defense has just four starters back with one of them coming in the front seven so that’s a massive issue. They tried to patch the holes with transfers so we’ll see if a lot of the new players can do good work. WKU overs will be the play once again.
Prediction
I come up with 8-9 wins for the Hilltoppers. Lean to the over 8 at Caesars for push potential.
