2023 College Football Season Preview: Win Total Over/Unders (ACC)

One of the biggest changes in college football this offseason was the ACC’s decision to get rid of divisions, with the top two overall teams in the conference now meeting in the championship game. You may notice the group of quarterbacks in this conference are pretty stellar, with UNC’s Drake Maye and Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke leading the way. Neither of them is predicted to make the championship game though, as Clemson and Florida State are the overwhelming top two teams. There are a whole host of others who could play the spoiler to that including Pittsburgh, NC State, North Carolina, Duke and Miami. The rest of the squads are fighting for respectability and/or a bowl.

Boston College

Win Total: Over 5.5 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 5.5 (+105, Caesars)

Nonconference Games: NIU, Holy Cross, @ Army, UConn

Schedule Notes

BC gets a soft start to their season, with four of their first five at home. There are some victories to be had in October which features two winnable games. November has four contests over a 21-day span with road trips to Syracuse and Pittsburgh.

QB Battle

Emmett Morehead vs. UCF transfer Thomas Castellanos

Roster Notes

The first thing Jeff Hafley told me at ACC Media Day was that he was glad to have a healthy offensive line and he thinks that the offense will be instantly better because of it. They do have to overcome the loss of signal caller Phil Jurkovec, who stayed in conference and transferred to Pittsburgh. Hafley said that the person replacing him has not been decided yet, with Morehead going up against the transfer from UCF. Castellanos will have an old friend in fellow transfer Ryan O’Keefe, who was a No. 1 wide receiver at his previous stop. The defense will be led by its linebackers and could have a solid secondary if the transfers they picked up learn the system. 

Prediction

I come up with 5-6 wins, so no play here. There will be one or more upsets in Chestnut Hill though.

Clemson

Over 9.5 (-168 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 10 (-115, Caesars)

Nonconference Games: Charleston Southern, FAU, Notre Dame, @ South Carolina

Schedule Notes

Clemson gets a pair of three-game home stretches during the season, with the second one featuring tilts against Notre Dame and North Carolina. The Tigers’ most important contest may come in late September when they host Florida State, who could be their opponent in December as well. Late October features two interesting road trips to Coral Gables and Raleigh back-to-back.

Quarterback

Cade Klubnik

Roster Notes

Clemson’s offense got its biggest boost off the field when they hired Garrett Riley to be the new offensive coordinator. Riley did a fantastic job with TCU’s offense and should do the same, with seven Tigers starters back. Will Shipley will have plenty of holes to run through behind an offensive line that has four starters returning. A concern for this side of the ball is the lack of experience behind Klubnik if he goes down. The defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL, and you can tell it on the depth chart — the starters are strong, but the depth is not so much. Tyler Davis and his 5.5 sacks return, and he’ll attempt to keep Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter clean at linebacker. The secondary will need to improve, but there’s plenty of continuity at the position.

Prediction

I came up with 9-10 wins so no play. Three tough road trips will decide which direction you want to go on this total.

Duke

Over 6 (-154, Caesars)
Under 6.5 (-150, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nonconference Games: Lafayette, Northwestern, @ UConn, Notre Dame

Schedule Notes

Duke gets Clemson at home to open up the 2023 campaign. It’s part of a stretch where five of the first six are in Durham. One of those is Notre Dame Sept. 30 as the homecoming opponent. The wins better come early, because four of the final six are on the road including back-to-back trips to Florida State and Louisville.

Quarterback

Riley Leonard

Roster Notes

There are 17 total starters back, with the most important one being Leonard, who had 20 touchdowns passing and 13 rushing during the 2022 campaign. He’ll have his full complement of receivers back in Eli Pancol, Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore. Add in Jaylen Coleman and Jordan Waters at running back and Duke should be able to score some points. The defense loses its top two tacklers, but if they keep forcing turnovers it won’t matter. Mike Elko brought Tyler Santucci over from Texas A&M to help this side of the ball. Getting Al Blades from Miami will be a big addition to the secondary.

Prediction

I came up with 6-7 wins, so I guess that means take over 6 at Caesars. Juice is pushing my tolerance level though.

Florida State

Over 9.5 (-134, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 10 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nonconference Games: LSU (Orlando), Southern Miss, North Alabama, @ Florida

Schedule Notes

The Noles showed the nation they were back last year in Week 2 after they beat LSU down in New Orleans. Now they get to play the Tigers Week 1 in the state of Florida. They get five of their final eight at home, as Miami has to come to Tallahassee Nov. 11. The schedule has a solid flow to it with not too many trouble spots.

Quarterback

Jordan Travis

Roster Notes

The offense was awesome last year and should be once again in 2023. The one concern is the loss of two solid offensive linemen, but they brought some transfers in to replace them. Travis has a ton of weapons at his disposal including returnees Johnny Wilson and Mycah Pittman. He also has a pair of new transfer additions in South Carolina TE Jaheim Bell and Michigan State WR Keon Coleman. Trey Benson and Lawrence Toafili will keep defenses honest from the backfield. The defense should be able to rush the passer rather easily with Jared Verse and Fabien Lovett leading the way. It’s surprising that both returned considering how high they could have gone in the draft. The secondary lost Jammie Robinson, but they managed to pick up UVA transfer Fentrell Cypress II to go with safety Akeem Dent and cornerback Renardo Green. 

Prediction

Solid numbers as I come up with 9-10 wins. If you think they lose to LSU and Clemson, then you are on the Under 10 and hoping for a loss at Pittsburgh or Boston College.

Georgia Tech

Over 4.5 (+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 4.5 (-125, BetMGM)

Nonconference Games: SCSU, @ Ole Miss, Bowling Green, Georgia

Schedule Notes

An easier nonconference slate than last year and that is saying something considering there are still two SEC schools on it. The Yellow Jackets have just five true road games and none of them are particularly easy, with the one in Charlottesville being the most likely to produce a victory. There are some opportunities for wins at home with BC and Syracuse coming to Atlanta.

QB Battle

Texas A&M transfer Haynes King vs. Zach Pyron

Roster Notes

Brent Key had the interim coaching tag removed after he finished the season 4-4 including wins at North Carolina and Virginia Tech. The offense was miserable at times last year, so improved quarterback play is a must. There are a pair of receivers who transferred in from the SEC in Dominick Blaylock (Georgia) and Christian Leary (Alabama). The ground game may be somewhat successful with four offensive linemen back and Louisville transfer Trey Cooley at running back. The defense has its own SEC transfers with Andre White coming over from Texas A&M. The big question will be if they can get pressure on the opposing signal caller because the secondary has its own transfers it needs to lean on.

Prediction

Lost on their under last year somehow, but I’m going back to it again in 2023.

Louisville

Over 8 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 8.5 (-158, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nonconference Games: Murray State, Indiana (Indianapolis), Notre Dame, Kentucky

Schedule Notes

The Cardinals start things off with an interesting conference game against Georgia Tech in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. They will play their first five games in four different places, which could present a challenge with a new coaching staff. The payoff comes late October when they start a stretch of four of five at home as both Virginia schools, Duke and Kentucky all come to Louisville. 

Quarterback

Cal transfer Jack Plummer

Roster Notes

There’s a brand-new coaching staff as Jeff Brohm comes over from Purdue to try to keep things going after the team went 8-5 last year. He inherits an offense that has just three starters back and two other regulars at running back in Jawhar Jordan and Maurice Turner. Plummer spent some time with Brohm at Purdue, so he’ll be familiar with the offense, but his WR corps is full of question marks with a lot of the group coming from the transfer portal. Defensively, UL is now going to run a 4-2-5 which fits nicely for an experienced secondary. The defensive line is led by Ashton Gillotte, who had six sacks last year. We’ll see what the linebackers can do as they are a bit concerning as a unit.

Prediction

Came up with 8-9 wins so potentially a play on Over 8 for the push potential. 

Miami 

Over 7.5 (+125, BetMGM)
Under 7.5 (-142, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nonconference Games: Miami (OH), Texas A&M, Bethune Cookman, @ Temple

Schedule Notes

The Canes always seem to have a very home-friendly stretch to their schedule, and that’s no different in 2023 as they have six of their first eight at Hard Rock Stadium. Among those coming to Florida are Texas A&M, who is looking for another win after last year, and Clemson, who smashed Miami 40-10 at their place in 2022. November has three road games in four weeks with the rivalry matchup at Florida State Nov. 11.

Quarterback

Tyler Van Dyke

Roster Notes

The hype train was derailed early last year when the U lost to Middle Tennessee to fall to 2-2 on the season. This offseason they changed coordinators in hopes of charging up an offense that was stale at times and a defense that struggled mightily against its better opponents. Van Dyke needs to stay healthy behind an offensive line that mixes some returning starters and some key transfers. It’ll be interesting to see how they do without TE Will Mallory although Oregon’s Cam McCormick will attempt to fill in. The defense is coordinated by Lance Guidry who was amazing with Marshall last year. Safety Kamren Kinchens was an All-American last year, but the concerns remain at corner with Tyrique Stevenson and DJ Ivey gone. They’ll attempt to be replaced by UCF’s Davonte Brown and Oklahoma’s Jaden Davis.

Prediction

I have 7 wins for Miami, but that’s only because I think they’ll give a lackluster effort in Chestnut Hill Nov. 24 in a game that won’t matter.

North Carolina 

Over 8.5 (+130, Caesars)
Under 8.5 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nonconference Games: South Carolina (Charlotte), App State, Minnesota, Campbell

Schedule Notes

The Heels will be tested early as they take on teams from the SEC, Big 10 and upstart Sun Belt in the first three weeks. That is part of a stretch of seven contests where UNC plays just one true road game. It gets much tougher later as they host Duke before road trips to Clemson and NC State.

Quarterback

Drake Maye

Roster Notes

Maye hopes to build off a 38-touchdown, 7-interception campaign last year as the offense makes alterations with a new offensive coordinator leading the way. Chip Lindsay was the OC at UCF and that could mean a little bit more rushing to keep teams honest. Transfers Nate McCollum (Georgia Tech) and Tez Walker (Kent State) attempt to replace the top two receivers from last year that are gone. The defense was hideous last year, and they lost Storm Duck to Louisville and Tony Grimes to Texas A&M. While the secondary saw those two depart, it did add Virginia Tech’s Armani Chatman and Georgia State’s Antavious Lane. 

Prediction

Lean to the under here. I think they lose to South Carolina, Pitt, Clemson and NC State.

NC State 

Over 6.5 (-140, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 7 (-130, Caesars)

Nonconference Games: @ UConn, Notre Dame, VMI, Marshall

Schedule Notes

The season opens with an interesting trip to UConn before hosting Notre Dame in Week 2. Six of the first nine overall are in Raleigh with Clemson and Miami coming back-to-back weeks in late October and early November. It’ll be interesting to see how they do in the two road games afterward at Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.

Quarterback

UVA transfer Brennan Armstrong

Roster Notes

I’m really buying into this offense after talking to Armstrong at ACC Media Day. He’s playing with a chip on his shoulder after the disastrous season he came off at UVA. Not only that, but he’s reunited with the offensive coordinator who helped him put up big numbers in Charlottesville two years ago. The recent addition of Rice’s Bradley Rozner is big as Keyon Lesane needed some help out wide. The defense has six starters back with none of them more important than Payton Wilson who decided not to go pro. The front line should be able to put plenty of pressure on the QB with the secondary holding its own despite losing Tanner Ingle.

Prediction

I love over 6.5 for the Wolfoack. Famous last words so I’m hoping they don’t disappoint like they have in past years. 

Pittsburgh

Over 6.5 (-192, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 7 (Even, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nonconference Games: Wofford, Cincinnati, @ West Virginia, @ Notre Dame

Schedule Notes

There are some intriguing nonconference matchups headlined by another edition of the Backyard Brawl and a road trip to South Bend to take on Notre Dame. The Panthers play Syracuse at Yankee Stadium in early November. The slate overall features home ACC games against UNC and Florida State with their toughest conference road game at Wake Forest.

Quarterback

BC transfer Phil Jurkovec

Roster Notes

Pittsburgh is like a ninja that does all its work in silence because they rarely get the hype they actually deserve. The Panthers have another rock-solid team without a ton of star power that the nation knows about. It all begins with Jurkovec, who looks to finish his career at Pittsburgh with his old BC offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. Jurkovec will be happy to be behind this solid offensive line, as that was an issue for him in Chestnut Hill. WRs Konata Mumpfield and Bub Means lead the way while Rodney Hammond Jr. provides a solid presence in the backfield. The defense was awesome last year, but six starters left for the NFL. There are some returnees on all levels of the unit as well as some key transfers so they may not slide back that much overall. MJ Devonshire and Marquis Williams are one of the better cornerback duos in the league.

Prediction

I’ll take the over at 7 because I can see push potential here.

Syracuse

Over 6.5 (+145, BetMGM)
Under 6.5 (-161, Caesars)

Nonconference Games: Colgate, Western Michigan, @ Purdue, Army

Schedule Notes

The JMA Wireless Dome will be busy with four of the first five at home including a conference opener against Clemson Sept. 30. The wins better come early because the Orange then embark on a stretch of five of six games away from New York with three of those coming in a row in October.

Quarterback

Garrett Shrader

Roster Notes

Syracuse lost both of its coordinators from a 7-6 team last year although the new OC is Jason Beck, who was the school’s QB coach previously. Shrader’s health is very important because he won’t have Sean Tucker in the backfield to rely on. LeQuint Allen is a solid replacement for Tucker, and he flashed a lot of potential in the Pinstripe Bowl. The best part is Oronde Gadsden II is back at tight end, and he had 61 receptions for nearly 1,000 yards last year. The defense lost Tony White at coordinator, but replacing him is the creator of the 3-3-5 defense, 73-year-old Rocky Long. The unit has eight starters back and should be well stocked at linebacker led by Marlowe Wax, Derek McDonald and Stefon Thompson. Two of Cuse’s best corners are gone with Ja’Had Carter off to Ohio State and Duce Chestnut on his way to LSU.

Prediction

First off, this is my alma mater, so I’m hoping for 12-0. Realistically, the move to the under is probably a good one, as the ACC slate is not kind at all.

Virginia 

Over 3.5 (+125, BetMGM)
Under 3.5 (-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nonconference Games: Tennessee (Nashville), James Madison, @ Maryland, William & Mary

Schedule Notes

It could be a very rough start for the Hoos as they play essentially a road game in Tennessee followed by a sneaky contest against James Madison. They are one of the few teams in the ACC without a very home friendly start to the 2023 campaign. Their best stretch comes in November when they have three of four in Charlottesville and a road game at Louisville.

Quarterback

Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett

Roster Notes

The UVA players I talked to all were saying the right things, but I think there’s a talent deficit in Charlottesville. UVA’s offense has just three starters back and a massive question mark at QB where an FCS transfer takes over. They have to replace their top four receivers and a lot of their offensive line, which was already bad to begin with. Points may be at a premium for UVA, which is an issue considering Tony Elliott is an offensive coach. The defense returns six starters with most of them on the defensive line. Linebacker and corner are potential weaknesses with a lot of new players at each of those positions. I’ll be interested to see what Clemson transfer Malcolm Greene can do at CB. 

Prediction

There are five “winnable” games for the Hoos. They are James Madison, William and Mary, Georgia Tech, Duke and Virginia Tech all at home. If you find 4 wins take the over, but if you don’t then take the under. 

Virginia Tech

Over 5.5 (+150, Caesars)
Under 5.5 (-140, BetMGM)

Nonconference Games: ODU, Purdue, @ Rutgers, @ Marshall

Schedule Notes

The Hokies get five of their first eight at home. Revenge will be on the team’s mind as they get in-state rival Old Dominion in Blacksburg after losing to them on the road to open last year. Virginia Tech has three of their final four on the road, so they’ll need to take care of business early.

QB Battle

Grant Wells vs. Baylor transfer Kyron Drones

Roster Notes

I’m really excited for the potential of this offense if Malachi Thomas stays healthy at RB and they properly use ODU transfer Ali Jennings. Last year the team didn’t have a legit No. 1 wide receiver, and it led to disappointing results for Wells who had just nine touchdowns to nine interceptions. Brent Pry says he’ll continue to compete with Drones for the starting position and there’s a chance that each could have a package of plays. The defense should be really strong in the secondary with Mansoor Delane, Dorian Strong and Nasir Peoples back and Georgia Southern CB Derrick Canteen in the fold as well. They could be covering a while though if this front seven doesn’t get enough pressure.

Prediction

This team will be around bowl eligibility, but I’m leaning toward 5 wins more than 6 or 7.

Wake Forest 

Over 6 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 6.5 (Even, Caesars)

Nonconference Games: Elon, Vanderbilt, @ ODU, @ Notre Dame

Schedule Notes

The Demon Deacons have three of their first four at home with the road trip being an odd one to Norfolk to play Old Dominion. They have three of their final four on the road with trips to Duke, Notre Dame and Syracuse.

Quarterback

Mitch Griffis

Roster Notes

Talking to Griffis, I really believe that he’ll be able to make this offense groove although maybe not as much as Sam Hartman, but still pretty solid. The best part of this side of the ball is the return of Donavon Greene, Jahmal Banks and Taylor Morin at WR as well as Justice Ellison at RB. Those four should help with the transition although the offensive line has only two starters back. The defense was bad last year and only five starters return. Rondell Bothroyd went to Oklahoma after a stellar season. There’s going to be a lot of shootouts in this team’s future once again.

Prediction

Four wins come early so you’d be looking for two more if you took the DraftKings Sportsbook over.