Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
College football’s win totals represent such good value if you take the time to do the research. If you give yourself plenty of options with regards to sportsbooks, you’d be surprised how many teams had two or three different totals in two or three different books.
Last year I lost on my biggest play (the Army over), but the year before I was on target with my plays. With that, let’s take a look at my favorite win totals for the 2023 season grouped in a couple of different categories.
My Favorites (2u Plays)
Northern Illinois Over 5.5 Wins
(-144, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Last year I played the over and lost because of a ton of injuries to a very talented roster. There are 15 starters back including Rocky Lombardi, who just knows how to make this offense go. The defense is not necessarily the best, but they will be good enough to get wins over the weaker MAC opponents. The nonconference slate should net two victories with the potential for a third if Boston College struggles out of the gate. There’s a stretch of four of five in DeKalb beginning Oct. 14 against Ohio in which they should get three wins. Road games at Akron and Kent State also represent victories as well. I see 7-8 wins giving us a little cushion on the 5.5 number on FanDuel.
NC State Over 6.5 Wins
(-140, FanDuel Sportsbook)
NC State Over 7 Wins
(Even, Caesars)
I’m buying into NC State, which is always a dangerous thing. People bought into them last year and then Devin Leary got hurt and they lost at Syracuse in an ugly contest. Still, with UVA transfer Brennan Armstrong reuniting with Robert Anae, who gave him a great season two years ago in Charlottesville, I think this offense will be fantastic. Getting Bradley Rozner from Rice is a solid late addition to a wide receiving corps that desperately needed help. The defense gets Payton Wilson back as well. NC State has four of their first six at home and that doesn’t include tilts against Clemson, Miami and UNC that are also in Raleigh. I think they can get 5-6 wins early and tack on one or two more late at Virginia Tech, Duke or Wake Forest. Famous last words, but I believe in NC State. Choose your fate though and take over 6.5 for the outright win potential or the better price that could bring you a push.
Underdog Sprinkles (0.5u Plays)
Illinois Under 6.5 Wins
(Even, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Illini lost a lot on both sides of the ball and have an upgraded schedule that does miss Michigan and Ohio State in conference. I’m concerned about a defense that lost a lot in the secondary and lost their defensive coordinator to Purdue. Illinois’ offense has potential if Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer can play better than he did at his previous stop. They host a pair of intriguing G5 teams in Toledo and Florida Atlantic who could spring an upset if Illinois isn’t running well. The team’s four Big 10 road trips are to Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota and Iowa so I expect maybe one or two wins in that group. They host Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Indiana and Northwestern with three wins probably coming from there. Basically, I’m taking a shot at an even price that this team finishes with six wins.
Fresno State Under 8 Wins
(+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent this offseason starting with QB Jake Haener, RB Jordan Mims and the team’s three top WRs as well. Coming in to replace Haener is UCF transfer Mikey Keene who may be pretty solid, but who is he going to throw to. The Bulldogs should get five of their wins at home beating everyone but Boise State there. That means we are hoping for just three road wins from a group of Purdue, Arizona State, Wyoming, Utah State, San Jose State and San Diego State. I think they win at Wyoming and Utah State, which gives them seven wins. Even if they steal one more then it’s a push. Give me the plus price here and let me take a chance that things are a little down for the Bulldogs this season in the Mountain West.
Jacksonville State Over 4.5 Wins
(+115, BetMGM)
The Gamecocks are in year one of their FBS journey and they are led by Rich Rodriguez, who is definitely familiar with this level of football. JSU’s ground game shouldn’t have much of an issue making things work and their quarterback is a veteran in Zion Webb. The defense is definitely a concern, but their defensive line should be able to get some pressure on the quarterback. Looking at their nonconference slate and I see potentially two wins hosting ETSU and Eastern Michigan. They also host UTEP and Louisiana Tech in potential toss-up games. That means if they get both, they’ll need one more win from a group of Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee, FIU and New Mexico State on the road. The Bearkats are in the same boat as the Gamecocks while the Panthers can be beaten as well. At a plus price, I’ll take a shot this team can get five wins.
Others I Like (1u Plays)
Old Dominion Under 3.5 Wins
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I usually hate these really low totals because there’s very little margin for error. The Monarchs were ravaged by the transfer portal and have just seven starters back total. Their quarterback situation is now a little complicated after Hayden Wolff left in the spring. The defense has Jason Henderson who led the nation in tackles, but not much else anywhere. The schedule features a victory over Texas A&M Commerce, but not many others. They probably won’t win a road contest, which means this bet would need three home wins from a group that includes Louisiana, App State, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State. I see three wins max, so I’ll take a shot at the under here at -105.
Washington State Over 6 wins
(-115, BetMGM)
I don’t love placing a bet hoping for a push, but that’s what I’m doing here. I’m a huge fan of Cameron Ward, who came over from Incarnate Word and was awesome in this offense last season. He’s got a full complement of WRs to throw to again in 2023 and could be even better. The Cougars defense scares me a little bit with only five starters returning, but I think the offense can make up for mistakes. This team should go 2-1 or 3-0 in nonconference play as they host Wisconsin, whom they beat last year on the road in a 17-14 contest. The Pac-12 schedule affords the opportunity to potentially go 4-0 at home (Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford and Colorado). The game against the Beavers has me concerned the most of that group. That gives us six wins with chances at Arizona State and Cal for the seventh win. I’m already counting them out at UCLA, at Oregon and at Washington. I think seven wins is a reality. You could play over 6.5 at either DraftKings (+140) or FanDuel (+132) but then you are losing the push potential.
UTSA Over 7.5 Wins
(-148, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Roadrunners have 16 starters back and a new conference that features a lot of manageable games. Pretty much all of their weapons return on offense for Frank Harris at quarterback. The defense wasn’t great last year, but the group is a year older, so improvement is expected. A 2-2 or 3-1 record is possible in nonconference play as they travel to Houston and Tennessee. In AAC play, they have a very easy set of home games against UAB, ECU, Rice and USF. The road is tough, but wins could come at Temple and North Texas whom the Roadrunners knocked off twice last year. I see 8-9 wins for UTSA and a possible AAC title berth if things break right.
