Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It was an interesting start to the tournament with plenty of drama in the first two rounds, but ultimately we ended up with a relatively chalky Sweet 16. There are still plenty of opportunities for upsets though, especially with a plethora of intriguing players remaining.
We are now going to revisit and update our 25 players to watch list, Sweet 16 edition.
2024 NCAA Tournament Players to Watch: Sweet 16
Jamal Shead, Houston
Shead was on the original list heading into the tournament, and he did not disappoint in the Cougars’ first two games. Despite being severely banged up, he set the tone early in their win over Longwood and ensured there wouldn’t be any 16-over-1 theatrics. He dished 9 assists and turned it over only twice in that first-round victory. However, it was the frenetic second-round win in overtime that reminded everyone about Shead being one of the best point guards in all of college basketball. He was masterful late and ended with 21 points/10 assists/5 rebounds. There is no doubt in my mind that the best is yet to come with a matchup against Duke up next.
Manny Sharp, Houston
Sticking with the Cougars, we have to be aware of Manny Sharp and what he is capable of in this tournament. Many pundits around the industry are down on Houston because of the injuries and a perceived weakness to this team, but it’s truly a mistake to overlook this group. Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor were blistering hot in their second-round game and perhaps their performances would have resulted in a victory on any other day. Unfortunately for the Aggies, Manny Sharp chose the right time to have the best game of his career. He was simply electric, knocking down 7 of his 14 long-range attempts on his way to 30 points. Shead may have ultimately been the hero of Round 2 for the Cougars but they wouldn’t have been in a position to advance without a historic game from Sharp.
Tyler Kolek, Marquette
Any concerns about Kolek being less than 100% coming into the tournament were quickly washed away as he played 38 minutes in a closer than expected battle with Western Kentucky. Keep in mind, he missed the previous six games, but you certainly couldn’t tell as he produced 18 points and 11 assists which is a primary reason why the Golden Eagles ran away with that game in the second half. Colorado pushed them late in round 2 but a steady Kolek once again did what leaders do and paced his squad to another win. He was forced into 6 turnovers but still posted a stat line of 21 pts/5 rebs/11 dimes while playing every single minute possible. They have a date with N.C. State, a team on an unbelievable run but we know Kolek won’t be rattled with an Elite Eight trip on the line.
Zach Edey, Purdue
Say what you will about Edey, but we can’t deny how dominant he has been in this tournament thus far. The competition is going to get harder from this point forward, but this Purdue team is playing with a renewed sense of confidence and Edey is keying that on. He is averaging 26.5 PPG and 17.5 RPG through the first two rounds. Scary stuff if he can continue but his guards will still have to make shots ultimately.
Mark Sears, Alabama
I have to give Alabama credit, I thought they’d lose to Grand Canyon, but they took care of business and won in a lower scoring affair, which is something we don’t often see with them. Despite scoring less than usual as a team, Sears continued to get buckets as he has always done. He scored 30 against Charleston and put together a strong 26-12-6 stat line against GCU. With Sears playing at an elite level, the Tide have a legitimate chance to compete with the top-seeded Tar Heels.
Mo Diarra, NC State
We barely had any time to process the Wolf Pack’s remarkable run through the ACC tourney, and now they’re into the Sweet 16 in a very winnable game against Marquette. DJ Burns has become a March hero and is easily the face of the program right now, but it’s Mo Diarra that deserves your attention. Diarra was the top-rated JUCO prospect a few years ago but he never really got going after transferring to Missouri. However, his maturation and development under Coach Keatts this year has been impressive. Diarra is an elite rim protector with a 5.3% block rate and had the third-highest DRebounding rate in the country at 31%. He has been an absolute beast on the glass but that isn’t the only way he affects the game as he is also shooting 34% from long-range, which means it’s a mistake to leave him alone beyond the arc. He has pulled down double-digit rebounds and knocked down at least one triple in each of his last five games. This Wolfpack team might not be done just yet.
Dalton Knecht, Tennessee
The SEC POY hasn’t gotten much hype through the first two games which only means he set the bar so high during the regular season that people’s expectations of him are ridiculously high. He has averaged 20.5 PPG and 8.5 RPG while knocking down about 31% of his triples through the first two games. His mediocre is most players’ best games. We will get a legendary tournament performance before the Vols run ends.
RJ Davis, North Carolina
Guards matter in March. It’s a cliche but it’s so true. The Heels have one of the best in RJ Davis and his ability to score at every level makes him extremely dangerous. The Heels have one of the more well-rounded rosters left in the tournament, but they go as Davis goes.
Donovan Clingan, Connecticut
Yes, guards are key to March success, but we have to address the fact that this tournament is full of elite-tier big men. It’s not just Zach Edey. We have Armando Bacot, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Oumar Ballo, Jonas Aidoo and the list goes on. But the real game changer is UConn’s Donovan Clingan, a center that would be considered the best in college basketball if Zach Edey didn’t exist. Clingan has a reputation for being a fouler which can impact his overall upside for sure, but we saw him dominate a good Northwestern team in a way that most didn’t even think was possible. He scored 14 points and ripped down 14 boards in 27 minutes of action while swatting a ridiculous 8 shots. UConn is going to win it all once again and their star center will be the catalyst.
PJ Hall, Clemson
One of the most surprising developments of the Clemson Sweet 16 run is the fact that their top player PJ Hall has been basically nonexistent due to foul issues. He has played less than 20 minutes in each matchup but clearly the Tigers can’t move on without a vintage Hall performance. He averaged over 18 PPG and 6 RPG this year so it would be truly shocking if he was contained for a third straight tourney game.
Caleb Love, Arizona
Prior to the tournament starting we said the Wildcats would need the best version of Caleb Love, which is obvious, but his reputation for erratic performances clearly had fans on edge. The Wildcats got an early push from Long Beach State, but Love did what Love does and completely took over that game. It was a masterful 18 point/11 rebounds/5 assist performance that pushed the Wildcats one step closer to a possible dream matchup against his former team, the North Carolina Tar Heels. One thing is for sure, Love will be responsible for the Wildcats destiny, good or bad.
Terrence Shannon, Illinois
One of the more intriguing matchups of the Sweet 16 will be the battle between the No. 1 offense in Illinois and the No. 1 defense of Iowa State. “Scary Terry” has been unstoppable against a variety of opponents and has scored 30+ points in three of his last four games. He is quite simply appointment television.
Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State
We highlighted Tamin Lipsey before the tournament started, but now the focus will be on Keshon Gilbert. Lipsey was great this year but once he hit some minor health issues his performances went down. He has since risen above those pedestrian games and become a key player again but it’s Gilbert that now holds the title of “alpha.” The UNLV transfer has thrived under Coach “Otz” and should cause absolute chaos against this soft Illini defense.
Marcus Domask, Illinois
There wasn’t a ton of fanfare for Domask’s transfer announcement to Illinois. He had scored around 16 PPG at Bradley but at best he appeared destined for a role player gig with the Illini. He showed flashes during the non-con, but he was basically a high-level role player as we all expected. However, once the calendar turned to March something changed in Domask and he is now one of the most dangerous players in the country. He was integral in their Big 10 tournament win and dropped a triple-double in their first-round game against Morehead State. That accomplishment was truly historic as it was just the ninth in NCAA tournament history “officially” and the first since Ja Morant did it for Murray State back in 2019.
Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee
The Vols shot just 12% from long-range in Round 2 but were still able to gut-out a tough win over the Texas Longhorns. That really shows just how scary this team is, and it’s highly unlikely they shoot that poorly again in this tournament. You know Dalton Knecht is the real deal, but you may be less familiar with their point guard, Zakai Zeigler. He didn’t take part in last year’s tournament due to a late season injury and it took him some time to get back to a high level this year. Now that he is fully healthy, he has never looked better. His 35.1% assist rate was tops in the SEC and he is widely considered one of the best perimeter defenders in the galaxy, all while shooting nearly 37% from distance. This matchup against Creighton is perfect for his playstyle and it could very well be Zeigler everyone is talking about after the Sweet 16 instead of Knecht.
DJ Burns, NC State
Burns has become one of the more popular players in CBB the past few weeks as the skilled big man has been virtually unstoppable with his vast array of post moves. While I truly believe Mo Diarra is more important to the Wolfpack’s chances of advancing it would be gross negligence not to mention Burns’ impact over the past 3-4 weeks.
Trey Alexander, Creighton
The Jays don’t do well with physicality, and that is exactly what the Vols are going to bring to the table in their Sweet 16 matchup. That is worrisome for the likes of guys like Steven Ashworth, but Trey Alexander is a gamer, and I don’t see him backing down in this spot. He has been their primary bucket getter when things get chaotic and any chance of the Jays moving one will be on the shoulders of Alexander.
Cam Spencer, UConn
When it comes to the Huskies, most people will think of Clingan or Tristen Newton, but Rutgers transfer and supreme trash-talker Cam Spencer is an important piece as well. He has been solid through their first two games, but we haven’t seen the Cam Spencer game just yet but it’s coming. The sharpshooter has the No. 1 offensive rating in the nation and is knocking down nearly 45% of his triples.
Kam Jones, Marquette
Jones has flipped a switch in March and has turned himself into a truly cold-blooded scorer. With Kolek missing time, he became the alpha and has continues his scoring explosion even with their leader back in the mix. He has scored at least 17 points in 10 of his last 11 games.
Chase Hunter, Clemson
It took Hunter most of the season to get used to playing with high usage guard Joe Girard, but things have started to click at the right time, and he has been unstoppable in the tournament thus far. He has scored 41 points, doled out 12 dimes and racked up 4 steals across the first two games.
Jaedon LeDee, San Diego State
This is not the same Aztecs team that made a run to the title game last year, and their defense is nowhere near as elite. This version of SDSU runs through Jaedon LeDee and that has worked for them obviously. Another elite big man in this tourney, Ledee absolutely dominated against UAB and an overmatched Yale squad. LeDee was fourth in the KenPom POY rankings and has spectacular rates, including one of the highest fouls drawn rates in the country. There is a chance he gets Clingan into foul issues early and proceeds to take over in the paint, but SDSU may not have enough secondary pieces to compete. However, LeDee will still be in a position to smash.
Armando Bacot, North Carolina
Maybe this is the tournament of the big man, but we have yet another elite center in the mix in Armando Bacot. It’s been an uneven year for Bacot, but the veteran has plenty of experience playing in March and has looked unstoppable in the month of March. Alabama has very little in the interior capable of containing Bacot. He has averaged a double-double this year, which is one heck of a down year.
Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga
There aren’t many people out there giving the Zags a chance to beat Purdue in their Sweet 16 matchup, but I’ve simply learned to stop doubting Mark Few’s group. They’ll obviously have to shoot well in order to negate Zach Edey’s post dominance and that is going to start with their point guard, Ryan Nembhard. This roster is far less impressive than past iterations in Spokane, but Nembhard is the general and he showed he can be a game changer in last year’s tournament when he scored 30 against Baylor while a member of the Creighton Bluejays.
Braden Smith, Purdue
Purdue kept the haters quiet by easily dispatching 16 seed Grambling State to avoid a repeat of last year’s historic loss. Perhaps more impressive was the way they demoralized a good Utah State team 106-67. Edey was ridiculous and he was using his huge frame to get the entire Utah State front court into foul trouble. To this point, that style of play has worked for Matt Painter and the Boilermakers, but what happens if Edey gets into foul trouble himself? Where will they turn? The answer is Braden Smith. A year older, Smith was part of that loss to a 16 seed last year and the big story was just how rattled he really was. However, Smith is still only a sophomore but plays more like a senior and that’s something Purdue will need if they’re going to work their way to the Final Four. Smith is shooting 44% from beyond the arc and is one of the best facilitators in CBB, which is shown by his 37.9% assist rate. Edey is the main attraction but don’t sleep on Braden Smith the rest of the way.
Kyle Filipowski, Duke
The Blue Devils take a lot of heat from the industry and one of the main criticisms of their team is the fact that they’re soft. He stomped out a solid mid-major team in James Madison and didn’t entertain any possibility of an upset from Vermont in their first-round matchup. They’ve done this without much help from Filipowski, at least on the offensive side of the ball. He has scored just 17 points in two games but has been extremely active on the glass and as a rim protector. While his peripherals are nice, Duke will need him to be able to take over offensively when push comes to shove. That time is now as a date with Houston looms. If the Cougars choose to take away options like Tyrese Proctor and Jared McCain, Filipowski will have to prove his critics wrong to help Duke shed the dreaded soft label.
