NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
With 2021-22 men’s college basketball season about a week away from tipping off, I’ve put together a list of the 10 most impactful coaching changes around the NCAA.
Coaching is more important in college basketball than almost every other sport (compared to NBA for example), and we can certainly take advantage in the betting market of some early season mispricing in the “unknowns” these new coaches bring to the table. Brand new defensive schemes, changes in tempo, spacing all are predicated by the system put in place by the head coach and we want to analyze and predict how these coaching changes will affect the way their teams play this upcoming season.
(Check out our full college basketball season preview!)
Below you can see the top coaching changes I believe will have the most significant impacts and how I think their teams’ playing styles will adapt.
1. Chris Beard to Texas
Texas was able to snipe Chris Beard, a rising star in the coaching ranks, from cross-state rival Texas Tech. Beard slowly worked his way up the coaching ladder after assistant coaching stints at Abilene Christian, North Texas and Texas Tech, but he really made a name for himself once he transitioned to a head coach role at Arkansas-Little Rock. It only took Beard one season for his impact to be felt as he earned Sun Belt Coach of the year and led a 30-5 Little Rock team to a NCAA Tournament win. Beard quickly capitalized on his success earning a power conference head coaching role at Texas Tech, where he spent five years building the program to a national powerhouse including two-time Big 12 Coach of the Year, one National Coach of the Year and one National Title appearance, which is why he is now considered one of the best coaches in the country.
Beard hangs his hat on prioritizing his “no-middle” defense first (Texas Tech finished top 20 in defensive efficiency the last four straight years), mental toughness and selflessness. Beard has quickly gained the respect of coaches and players alike throughout the college basketball scene, which is shown in how fast he was able to acquire talent into Texas. Every article you read on this year’s Texas squad seems to have the same theme around the players’ buying into his coaching philosophy, his “4 to 1” mantra (the ratio of importance between mental and physical tasks) and leaving their egos aside. Texas is loaded with talent this year and if there is one person who can lead them to cutting down the nets its Chris Beard.
2. Hubert Davis to UNC head coach
Legendary UNC coach Roy Williams is gone and will ride into the sunset (and College Basketball Hall of Fame) with three National Championships under his belt, and in steps Tar Heel legend in his own right and longtime assistant Hubert Davis. Davis hopes to keep the Tar Heel winning tradition alive and certainly has the roster this year to do so. Although I expect the coaching philosophy to remain somewhat the same, Davis has been quoted many times noting that this year’s UNC squad will be playing a more 4-in 1-out NBA style than the traditional UNC two big “crash the glass” system. We should continue to expect UNC to be a transition heavy team, but Davis will instill a more modernized brand of basketball with a few stretch fours at his disposal. Don’t expect UNC to go anywhere with Williams gone, and with the additional spacing Davis should instill, this could work wonders for struggling point guard Caleb Love.
(Check out our rankings of the top 100 teams, top 100 players and top 25 freshmen for men’s college basketball in 2021-2022.)
3. Mike Woodson to Indiana
The Archie Miller experiment has finally come to an end, and Indiana takes a page out of Michigan’s book by poaching former Hoosier great Woodson from the NBA. Woodson has spent his entire coaching career in the NBA, including head coaching gigs with the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks. Because of their decorated history, the Indiana job comes with high expectations, and the Woodson decision is hopefully the splash they need to inspire the fanbase again. Similar to Hubert Davis, we should see the Hoosiers play with much more pace and 4-out NBA spacing with Woodson at the helm. Indiana certainly has the talent this year to compete atop the Big Ten standings, especially with All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis back who Woodson can build around. Yet, Woodson has never coached a college basketball game in his career so some bumps in the road, especially early should be expected.
4. Porter Moser to Loyola-Chicago
Another legendary coach decided to call it quits after the 2020-21 season, with Oklahoma’s Lon Kruger announcing his retirement after 10 years in Norman including a Sweet 16 and a Final Four appearance. The Sooner program shouldn’t skip a beat bringing in mid major phenomenon Porter Moser. Moser has spent the last 10 seasons at Loyola-Chicago building the program into one of the scariest mid majors in the country, including a magical Final Four run and a Sweet 16 in which they ended the year ranked 10th in KenPom. We should immediately see Oklahoma compete on the defensive side, as Moser will instill his dogged man-to-man defense that requires significant attention to detail and wreaked havoc in the past few tournaments. Moser takes over a roster that could be seen as a rebuild, yet he certainly has enough talent to compete for a tournament berth. He should be able to implement his precision motion offense through the high post with skilled big man Tanner Groves (former Big Sky Player of the Year). I am super excited to see what Moser can do at the high major level.
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5. Craig Smith to Utah
After nine up-and-down seasons at the helm, Larry Krystkowiak, the West Coast Coach K, is out at Utah with one Sweet 16 appearance under his belt. In what seems to be the perfect transition and replacement, Utah State’s Craig Smith steps in to rebuild the program in Salt Lake City. Smith’s coaching pedigree can be described in one word, “overachiever.” Over the last seven seasons, which include stints at both Utah State and South Dakota, Smith has outperformed his preseason KenPom ranking every single year. His coaching philosophy starts on the defensive end with stout interior defense and rim protection which should be anchoring by 7-foot returnee Branden Carlson. Smith’s offenses were never considered a juggernaut, but we should see the Utes play at a little faster pace with good motion and shot selection. The Utah roster is certainly in rebuild mode, but Craig Smith is one of the more prominent rising coaches in all of college basketball and we should see Utah back competing toward the top of the PAC 12 in years to come.
6. Tommy Lloyd to Arizona
The lingering cloud over Sean Miller and his FBI investigations are finally over in Tucson and Arizona hopes to hit the reset button with long time Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd. The good news is the Arizona roster is still loaded with talent, so don’t expect Arizona to be in rebuild mode, but Lloyd definitely has some work to do to get the Arizona program back to blue blood status. Lloyd has spent the last 20 years alongside Mark Few in Spokane, helping build the Zags into the national powerhouse they are today. Lloyd comes to Tucson with the reputation of being an elite recruiter (especially internationally) and player developer. Expect Arizona to morph to a playing style that mimics Gonzaga, focusing on getting out in transition and crisp up-tempo continuity offense.
7. Shaka Smart to Marquette
A few years ago, Smart was one of the hottest names in college basketball, leading VCU to five straight tournament appearances, including one Final Four Cinderella run. Fast forward to six straight mediocre seasons at Texas that include zero tournament wins, and the Longhorn program quickly parted ways with Smart and replaced him with the charismatic Chris Beard. Smart gets a second chance in high major land, taking over a struggling Marquette program from former Duke assistant Steve Wojciechowski. Wojo was known as a pretty decent recruiter with potent offenses but always lacked solid defense to take the program to the next level. Even though his patented “havoc” defense isn’t built to have success in a power conference, Smart should bring that defensive toughness back to Marquette. The roster is certainly in rebuild mode, but I think Marquette is taking the proper steps in becoming a yearly tournament team again in the near future under Smart.
(Check out our rankings of the top 100 teams, top 100 players and top 25 freshmen for men’s college basketball in 2021-2022.)
8. Mark Adams to Texas Tech
Texas Tech didn’t have to look far for their replacement for Chris Beard, as longtime assistant Mark Adams steps up to fulfill the vacated role. Don’t expect much to change in Lubbock, as Adams is a Beard disciple and is known as the engineer behind the patented “no middle” defense. Expect Texas Tech to continue to have a focus on rock solid defense. Where we may see a difference in scheme is on the offensive end, Adams has been quoted in the offseason wanting to free up spacing and run in transition more, so expect to see an uptick in tempo for the Raiders. He was able to both retain talent and bring in new faces via the transfer portal, which makes the Texas Tech roster loaded. If Adams can piece everything together in his first year at the helm, watch out — the Raiders could be one of the better teams in the entire country.
9. Wes Miller to Cincinnati
John Brannen was unable to fill the large shoes of Mick Cronin after he bolted for UCLA, and ultimately Brannen was fired from what seemed to be a very toxic relationship with his players and staff. Cincinnati tried to hit the reset button by hiring a young hungry coach who has seen massive success at the mid-major level and was a leading candidate for the UNC opening, Miller. Miller is best known for his energy and high-pressure defensive mindset during his 10 years at UNC Greensboro. He likes to press a bit and ultimately control tempo, similar philosophy as Leonard Hamilton at Florida State. Evidence that players want to play for Miller can be seen in the three players he brings over from UNGC along with a few other high major transfers and returning pieces. After some turmoil over the past few seasons, the future is bright for the Cincinnati program to eventually return atop the American Conference.
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10. Micah Shrewsbury to Penn State
The Penn State basketball program has never really been considered “top notch,” with only two tournament appearances over the last 20 years. They could also be considered unlucky after having their best season in recent history halted early due to a pandemic outbreak and also having to fire their head coach a few weeks before last season started due to misconduct. With hopes in changing the direction of the program, Penn State brings in a young coach with tons of potential in Shrewsbury. Shrewsbury comes to State College with an impressive pedigree serving as an assistant coach to both Brad Stevens and Matt Painter, it doesn’t get much better than that. As Shrewsbury works to bring in his own recruits and turn the program around, expect the system to be more defensive focused, energized and scrappy. It’ll be interesting to see how the Nittany Lions fair this season with some returning upperclassmen, but I don’t think we’ll see the full effects of Shrewsbury’s influence as the head coach for a few seasons.
