Odds to Win the 2025-2026 NCAA Men’s National Championship

Bits of confetti are still on the Alamodome floor and Florida fans partied on the San Antonio River Walk into the early hours Tuesday. The 2024-25 men’s college basketball season concluded with the Florida Gators winning the national championship. Very few members of the media gave coach Todd Golden and his program much of a chance back in November, which serves as a reminder that a lot can change during the course of the season. This is especially true in the NIL/transfer portal era. 

Rosters are in flux and every program is in the midst of an arms race to restock the cupboard with talent. Way-too-early top 25s have already sprung up, and I will maintain one as well, but it will clearly need to be updated frequently. Loading up on talent is important but the true key to success in this sport is continuity. Both title game participants returned the majority of their roster from the prior year and that chemistry helped push them through the gauntlet that is the NCAA Tournament. 

Championship odds for the 2026 NCAA Tournament are out across multiple sportsbooks, and there are several intriguing teams that stand out to me. I will highlight teams that have value now as well as a few programs that are worth keeping an eye on. For this breakdown, I will be using the current odds over on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win the 2025-2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship

Houston +1200

Everyone associated with the Cougars program will be thinking “what if?” for a long-time, and those wounds won’t heal overnight. However, I know Kelvin Sampson won’t sit around feeling sorry for himself. If anything, this will serve as the catalyst for a huge redemption story. Think about when Virginia lost to a 16-seed years ago and then stormed back to win the tournament the following season. UConn lost in the first round before rebounding to become back-to-back national champions. Even Purdue had a degree of redemption by making the title game the year after also losing to a 16-seed. My point is that these types of gut-wrenching losses can catapult a team into a dream season that leads to cutting down the nets. 

I suspect Houston’s odds will fluctuate a bit as draft declarations happen, but I doubt this number will improve much by the time things kick off in November. They will be losing scoring dynamo LJ Cryer and veteran leader J’Wan Roberts — they’re out of eligibility — which are not going to be easy pieces to replace. But they are expected to return Milos Uzan, JoJo Tugler, Emanuel Sharp and Terrance Arceneaux which is a solid nucleus. That type of experience won’t be common across the sport next season. They will welcome in a top-five recruiting class that includes McDonald’s All-Americans Chris Cenac Jr. and Isiah Harwell. Their title window won’t be closing anytime soon.

Purdue +1400

If we are going to place a priority on roster continuity and chemistry, then we have to mention the Purdue Boilermakers are a legitimate contender for next season. Point guard Braden Smith will be a Naismith POY contender while Trey Kaufman-Renn could be a 25 PPG scorer as a senior. They’ll also get dead-eye shooter Fletcher Loyer back and promising sophomore C.J. Cox. That’s enough for Purdue to be considered a top-five squad, and I suspect you’ll see them atop most preseason rankings. 

South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff has joined the team and will slot in as the starting center, which is a massive upgrade over Caleb Furst. He averaged 17.6 PPG and 12.3 RPG and shot 63.4% from the field. The Summit League All-First Teamer had the best defensive rebounding rate in the country at 32.4% and the fifth-best offensive rebounding rate at 17.2%. Say what you will about Matt Painter, but he is dangerous when equipped with a dominant center. They’re primed for a big run and 14-to-1 may be the best value we are going to get on them.

BYU +1600

I’m not prepared to place a future on BYU just yet, but I did want to make everyone aware of the fact that this team is going to be really good. Despite Egor Demin pulling a LeBron James-esque “Decision” Tuesday morning and opting for the NBA, this team still has plenty of firepower. Richie Saunders, aka “The Tater Tot King,” endeared himself to fans all over the country and proved that he was one of the best scorers in the sport. His return, along with low-post enforcer Keba Keita will serve a solid foundation. Furthermore, coach Kevin Young’s NBA-style offense will surely attract high-level transfers in the portal and they’re adding the top recruit in the class, AJ Dybantsa. This is a really big deal for BYU basketball, and they will have plenty of coverage across ESPN and multiple media platforms. This exposure will further the program in ways that other coaches can only dream about. Top-100 recruits Xavion Staton and Chamberlain Burgess were important additions as well. I’m waiting to see if Demin’s departure causes the books to overreact a bit thus giving us more value as a future. I expect them to strike fast when it comes to the portal, and Utah transfer Ezra Ausar is rumored to be one of their targets. I’ll be keeping a close eye on BYU all summer long.

Michigan +2500

Dusty May is a rising star in the coaching world, and he seems destined to bring the Michigan Wolverines back to their glory days. Most programs would take years to come back from losing the frontline tandem of Danny Wolf and Vladin Goldin, but May has worked the portal beautifully to speed up that rebuild. UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg will test the NBA draft waters but he is expected to ultimately return to college and will anchor the Wolverines lineup as a key piece of the front court. They’ve also grabbed pass-first point guard Elliot Cadeau from North Carolina and Illinois post player Morez Johnson. LJ Cason, Roddy Gayle and Nimari Burnett are the primary returners, so this is a formidable group of players that have championship upside. 

Florida +2500

It would be easy to write off the reigning national champions. Stars Walter Clayton, Will Richard and Alijah Martin go out on top as they have exhausted their collegiate eligibility. There is some chatter about Alex Condon declaring for the draft, but I’m willing to bet he ends up returning for another run with the Gators. The frontcourt will be stout with or without Condon though as they’ll return Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten, Sam Alexis and near 8-footer Olivier Rioux. 

I’ve been a broken record about Denzel Aberdeen, but I’ll say it again. He could have started for 80% of programs out there but chose to stay with Florida and now will get a chance to start for the defending champs. They’ll have to go portal shopping to shore up the guard position, but Todd Golden has raved about promising youngsters Isaiah Brown and Urban Klavzar, so they’ll be expected to take a leap forward for the Gators as well.

Other Notable Odds

St. John’s +2500: The Johnnies fizzled out in the second round, and there was a bit of controversy surrounding the way RJ Luis was used in that game. He has since decided to transfer, but the legendary Rick Pitino always has a plan. They’ve already added sharpshooter Joson Sanon from ASU and a reportedly healthy Bryce Hopkins from Providence via the portal. Rumors are heating up that they aren’t done yet and North Carolina transfer Ian Jackson has been linked to the team as well. This is one of the futures I’m jumping on early.

Auburn +1800: The Tigers are coming off a Final Four appearance and will have to replace a sizable portion of their roster, most notably Johni Broome. However, Tahaad Pettiford will be one of the most dynamic guards in the SEC next year and he will be playing with scoring machine Keyshawn Hall whom the team nabbed away from UCF in the portal.

Texas Tech +2500: The Elite Eight run was not a blip. Head coach Grant McCasland will have the Red Raiders primed for a deep tourney run once more. Darrion Williams hit the portal, but there is a very real possibility he returns while superstar JT Toppin is also considering coming back to Lubbock for another run. Christian Anderson will be on every breakout list made during the summer, and the super sophomore will be poised after playing a significant role throughout the tournament. 

Michigan State +3500: January, February, Izzo, April. Jase Richardson has declared for the NBA draft and Tre Holloman surprisingly decided to transfer but as long as Tom Izzo is on the sidelines, we should never count the Spartans out. +3500 is great value for a team that is competitive every year and will still return a ton of production from its Elite Eight squad.