NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
After an incredible regular season, college basketball is on the precipice of the glorious month of March. The NCAA Tournament is just two weeks away, and we will once again be filled with dominant programs, great individual performances and dangerous mid-major underdogs.
First, however, we are truly blessed with college basketball’s conference tournament season!
The Patriot League is one of the first conference tournaments that will determine March Madness automatic bids. Alongside the Horizon League and Sun Belt Conference, the Patriot League Tournament starts just one day after the Atlantic Sun Conference Championship.
For the fourth time in the past five years, Colgate won the regular season title, earning the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. Head coach Matt Langel’s Raiders are trying to earn the league’s automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.
The Patriot League is one of the few tournaments that use campus sites throughout, giving the home team a chance to play in front of their own fans.
The Patriot League Tournament consists of all 10 teams. The games are played over a 10-day period, with the eventual champion earning their automatic bid next Wednesday, March 8.
2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Previews
Patriot League Tournament Bracket
Patriot League Tournament History
Colgate has been in the finals of the Patriot League Tournament in five straight seasons, winning three overall championships. Over the past three seasons, the Raiders have compiled an insane 44-4 regular season record, including this year’s 17-1 mark. This season’s only loss? A 61-60 defeat at American University.
It is certainly worth noting that Colgate has not been as dominant against the spread. The Raiders’ 14-16 ATS record includes just a 9-9 mark within the Patriot League. The best two teams ATS in the league? Lehigh at 16-11 and Navy at 16-13.
Patriot League Tournament Odds & Betting Breakdown
The Defending Champion
Colgate (No. 1 Seed)
Odds: -220
Colgate is the clear favorite and showed no signs of real weakness with a 17-1 regular season. The Raiders rank first overall in college basketball in effective field goal percentage and three-point shooting accuracy (40.7%). Within league competition, they are also first in offensive turnover percentage (KenPom). Their weakness is free-throw shooting (65.6%), but that is only slightly worse than last season (69.5%). Colgate has played eight games decided by six points or less, going 7-1 in those contests. While the Raiders have again dominated the league, they have survived too many close battles to lay the heavy juice at -220.
Best Value
Army Cadets (No. 4 Seed)
Odds: +1100
If you are going to beat Colgate, it needs to be before the finals. The Raiders have won their last three Patriot League Tournament titles by 12, 14 and 16 points. Army lost both games to Colgate by an average of 4.5 points, including a 77-75 defeat at home where the Cadets led 71-65 with four minutes left.
Head coach Jimmy Allen has an experienced team that returned almost 60% of their minutes from last season. Army has a star in junior guard Jalen Rucker (15.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.5 APG), who averaged 22.5 points in the two battles with Colgate. It won’t be easy, but a semifinal matchup between the Cadets and Raiders would be a very close contest.
Momentum Play
Navy Midshipmen (No. 2 Seed)
Odds: +270
How about an Army-Navy Patriot League finale? Navy’s side of the bracket is significantly easier than the Cadets, and the Midshipmen boast a late-season seven-game winning streak that was snapped by just four points in their last game against Colgate.
Navy has the Patriot League’s best interior defense, holding league opponents to just 47.8% from inside the arc. The Midshipmen also force the second-most defensive turnovers in the Patriot League. They would need to get hot from 3P range, but their 37.6% 3P rate proves that can happen.
With four players shooting 36.8% or better from deep (led by Christian Jones’ 45.1%), anything is possible. While I wish their odds brought just a bit more value, Navy is worth consideration at +270.
The Long Shot
American Eagles (No. 7 seed)
Odds: +8000
They would have to win three road games, but the Eagles have provided the most resistance against the Patriot League’s top teams. American was the only team to defeat Colgate, and they have a victory over Army and a road victory at Navy.
Junior forward Matt Rogers (13.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has scored 20 or more points in three of the last four contests and tallied 16 rebounds in an overtime loss at Loyola (MD). American has lost six straight games and has the worst offensive turnover percentage in the Patriot League. However, in the spirit of the word “long shot,” American does provide interest at +8000. The Eagles are the best sleeper in a very top-heavy league tournament.
