NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
After an incredible regular season, college basketball is on the precipice of the glorious month of March. The NCAA Tournament is just two weeks away, and we will once again be filled with dominant programs, great individual performances and dangerous mid-major underdogs.
First, however, we are truly blessed with college basketball’s conference tournament season!
The Atlantic Sun is the first of 32 conference tournaments that will determine March Madness automatic bids.
The Liberty Flames and Kennesaw State Owls finished tied atop the standings with identical 15-3 Atlantic Sun records. Kennesaw State earned the overall No. 1 seed by virtue of their 88-81 come-from-behind victory at Liberty on February 16. It is the Owls’ first regular-season title since joining the conference in 2005-06.
The Atlantic Sun is one of the few conferences that use campus sites throughout the tournament, giving the home team a chance to play in front of their own fans.
The Atlantic Sun Tournament consists of only 10 of the 14 teams in the conference. The games are played over a six-day period, with the eventual champion earning their automatic bid next Sunday, March 5.
2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Previews
Atlantic Sun Conference Bracket
Atlantic Sun Tournament History
Last season, Bellarmine actually won the conference tournament with a 77-72 victory over Jacksonville. However, since Bellarmine had not completed the four-year trial as a transitional Division I program, they could not play in the NCAA Tournament. In an obscure situation, Jacksonville State earned the ASUN automatic berth by winning the regular-season Western Division.
Bellarmine ended a three-year ASUN Tournament winning streak by Liberty, who lost a tie-breaker to Kennesaw State for the top seed.
Atlantic Sun Conference Odds & Betting Breakdown
*Lines accurate at time of publication. (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Defending Champion
Bellarmine (No. 8 Seed)
Odds: +20000
It certainly is shocking to see the defending champion with the worst odds on the board, but the challenge of winning four straight road games is certainly daunting. The Knights’ 5-4 road record in conference play is impressive, but their ASUN worst two-point percentage allowed (56.2%) and offensive rebounding rate make it difficult to envision four straight road victories. They could definitely upset No. 7 seed North Florida in Round 1, but then they would travel to No. 2 seed Liberty, who beat Bellarmine by a combined 47 points in two games this season.
Best Value
Stetson Hatters (No. 4 Seed)
Odds: +1700
Stetson brings the conference’s best three-point percentage (39.9%) and free-throw percentage (79.7%) in conference play and will be bolstered by the return of point guard Stephan Swenson (10.7 PPG, 4.8 APG, 42.3% 3P), who has missed the Hatters’ last two games with a head injury.
If Stetson gets past No. 5 Lipscomb in the quarterfinals, they would face a Kennesaw State team that they battled to a one-point overtime loss earlier this season. The Hatters have lost five straight games to Liberty, including a 74-45 drubbing earlier this season, making a projected ASUN finals victory against the Flames difficult. However, with the most efficient offense in the conference, Stetson is very appealing at +1200.
The Old Guard
Liberty Flames (No. 2 Seed)
Odds: -230
Liberty brings the best odds as the overwhelming favorite to win the ASUN automatic berth, despite not being the top seed. The Flames have been the clear leader in the conference since joining the ASUN from the Big South in the 2018-19 season. They have won at least a share of the regular season title in four of the five seasons, winning the East Division in their lone outlier last season.
Explosive guard Darius McGhee (22.3 PPG) is the nation’s fourth-leading scorer and is capable of leading Liberty straight to the title. The Flames are great on the defensive boards and shoot a conference-leading 78.5% from the free throw line. Liberty has a great chance to win this tournament, but it isn’t worth investing at -230.
The Top Seed
Kennesaw State Owls (No. 1 Seed)
Odds: +300
It’s been a magical year for Kennesaw State and head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim. The Owls have improved their win total in each of Abdur-Rahim’s four seasons in Kennesaw, culminating in this year’s Atlantic Sun regular season championship. The Owls rank first in defensive turnover rate within conference play (KenPom) and have gutted out two overtime wins on the road (Stetson, Bellarmine).
There are legitimate concerns with the Owls resume, including an ASUN-worst 69.1% from the free throw line. Kennesaw State also suffered a home loss to first-year Division I program Queens University of Charlotte just one week ago.
It’s been a great season for Kennesaw State, but I wouldn’t back them even as the top seed at +300 odds.
Sleeper
Lipscomb Bison (No. 5 seed)
Odds: +2500
The Bison entered the ASUN Tournament on a three-game winning streak, including impressive road wins at Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson. Lipscomb plays Stetson in the quarterfinals, a team they have battled to overtime twice this season. Head coach Lennie Acuff’s squad shoots the three-ball well (37.6% in conference) and also ranks first among all ASUN teams in stifling opponents from beyond the arc (32.5% 3P allowed in conference).
The sophomore trio of Jacob Ognacevic (17.3 PPG), Derrin Boyd (10.3 PPG, 39.4% 3P) and Will Pruitt (10.0 PPG, 42.7% 3P) lead a balanced scoring attack, with 6-foot-10 fifth-year senior Ahsan Asadullah (7.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG) anchoring the middle.
Lipscomb fits the exact profile of a sleeper, even including a 77% FT rate. If they get past Stetson in the quarterfinals, the Bison will be a very live underdog against Kennesaw State.
