Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the Final Four officially set, FTN’s Brad Evans reveals his four favorite MKF plays on college basketball’s biggest stage.
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Prop 1: Davion Mitchell, Baylor (OVER 27.5 fantasy points)
Speedy Gonzalez off the bounce, Mitchell typically leaves would-be defenders in the dust. As witnessed throughout this NCAA Tournament he goes zero-to-60 on one dribble, racing past temporary roadblocks for two. Also effective from three (45.0 3PT%), an excellent distributor (19 assists last four) and quick-handed defender (8 steals last four), Mitchell should deliver quality numbers soon at the next level. Houston is an unbending defensive club, but it’s yet to face a top-30 KenPom team. The upward punch is unlikely to land. Knowing the Bear’s box-score filling production, he’s a sound over play.
Prop 2: Quentin Grimes, Houston (UNDER 17.5 points)
On Kelvin Sampson’s positionless team, Grimes is his deadliest scorer. Highly efficient whether attacking on dribble drives or setting his feet and releasing on outside jumpers (41.2 3PT%), he can pile up the points in a hurry. In five of his last six contests, he’s scored at least 18 points. Grimes, however, will do-si-do with Davion Mitchell, quite possibly the best on-ball defender in the college game. The Bear’s pickpocketing ways and in-your-grill defense could greatly hinder Houston’s top scorer. As mentioned above, the Cougars largely feasted on meek competition. Baylor is a significant step up in overall weight class.
Prop 3: Drew Timme, Gonzaga (OVER 19.5 points)
The Pete Vuckovich of college basketball may sport the finest upper lip hair this side of Krutwig, but it’s his post moves that reel in the onlookers. Politicians don’t possess more pivots. His keen awareness and craftiness around the basket are undeniable. Timme, currently No. 1 in KenPom’s Player of the Year ranks, has undergone an efficiency spike this NCAA Tournament. Against Oklahoma, Creighton and USC he combined for 75 points, shooting 67.4% from inside the arc. Jalen Suggs deserves much pub, but big man’s mustache celebrations will only continue. The Bruins are slick-footed in the paint, but they don’t showcase significant size. Cody Riley and freshman Mac Etienne have their hands full mitigating the ‘Zag.
Prop 4: Jaime Jaquez, UCLA (OVER 5.5 rebounds)
In the Elite Eight, Johnny Juzang lit the entire world and potentially the Milky Way on fire. Every shot that flicked off his fingers was a net-seeking fireball. As a result, Jaquez’s offense wasn’t as relied upon in the Bruins’ upset of Michigan. Still, the sophomore sensation racked the stats in other key categories. His high activity in the paints will be greatly needed against the ‘Zags. Mark Few’s bunch are an outstanding glass team, posting a 20.4 DR% over the last month. Still, Jaquez, even against bigger teams (e.g. Michigan), sniffs out boards whether on the offensive or defensive end of the floor. He’s eclipsed the proposed total in four straight games. UCLA, a 14.5-point underdog, may get thumped, but Jaquez is bound to block out enough times to achieve the over.
