NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
March Madness is here, and our college basketball analysts Mike Cutri and Walter Waddell are here to break down each region and give their thoughts to help you make those hard decisions when filling out your bracket.
Below you can find an overview of each region, favorite high seeds and potential Cinderella darlings from both analysts.
East Region
Overview
Cutri — There’s a lot of chatter out there about how Baylor is weakest No. 1 seed and they are a prime candidate for an early exit. Yes, the Bears are dealing with some bad injury luck at the moment, but let’s not forget how dominant this team was all season, especially defensively. Baylor reminds me a ton of last year’s Michigan team, who everyone wrote off after the Isaiah Livers injury before they ended up in the Elite Eight. I don’t think the potential second-round matchup should worry Baylor fans at all, but it starts to get dicey in the Sweet 16 against teams like UCLA/St. Mary’s. Overall, I don’t think the top of this region sees many upsets, but it’s the bottom of the region that could get interesting. Both 3-seeded Purdue and 6-seeded Texas are very susceptible to potential upsets while Murray State and San Francisco are strong potential second-round matchups for Kentucky. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some madness on the lower half of this region.
Waddell — This region has the best chance for a non-chalky seed to emerge. I think Baylor is the weakest 1 seed due to their injuries, and they lack the depth that made them so scary last year. I predict they become the first 1 seed to fall, and that ultimately will open it up for everyone else. The bottom half of the region has Kentucky, Murray State, Texas and Virginia Tech, all of which have the pieces necessary to make deep runs.
Favorite High Seed
[2] Kentucky Wildcats — Cutri
Kentucky blew their chance at a 1 seed with a floor performance in the SEC tournament semifinals against a trending Tennessee squad. With weaker 3 and 6 seeds in the bottom half of this region, to me Kentucky has a great path to the Elite Eight if they can avoid a second-round upset against either Murray State or San Francisco. They run their offense through the future Wooden Award winner and best rebounder I’ve ever seen in the college game, Oscar Tshiebwe, who is a matchup nightmare. In the backcourt they run dual points with speedy Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler and freshman phenom TyTy Washington, who can both cause havoc. John Calipari typically has his Kentucky teams playing their best basketball in March and this particular Wildcat squad is the oldest, most experience and best shooting team he’s had in a while. They are my favorite to come out of the region.
[5] St. Mary’s — Waddell
Honestly, I don’t even have a favorite high seed in this region, as I think it’s going to be chaos in this side of the bracket. Murray State is a strong 7 and I actually think they could pull off a massive upset over Kentucky and march their way to an Elite Eight. I also think St. Mary’s is an underrated team that could pull off wins over UCLA and Baylor potentially.
Favorite Cinderella
[11] Virginia Tech Hokies — Cutri
I know Walt is going to pick the Hokies here too, but I don’t care, because it’s the right call. Virginia Tech is one of the hottest teams in the country after running through the ACC tournament. Mike Young has done a fantastic job with this group of former mid-major level talent by untapping their ceiling through their versatility and shot making ability. Bigs Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts present mismatch issues for majority of teams that they face. As I mentioned, the bottom of this region is susceptible to some upsets and the door is wide open for the Hokies. Although the matchup isn’t great against Texas in the opening round as the Longhorns do have the defensive versatility and switchability to defend the Hokie action, Texas comes into the tournament on a three-game losing streak and potential team chemistry issues. If the Hokies can get past opening day, they matchup very well with Purdue so watch out.
[11] Virginia Tech Hokies — Waddell
This is where it gets fun for me. I have Virginia Tech as the 11 seed making a run to the Final Four. You’re going to think I’m crazy, and I get it (trust me, I do), but they have everything you look for in a team capable of making a deep tournament run. First of all, they’re red-hot and won some really tough games on their way to the ACC tourney crown. They have strong group of guards they can rely on for initiating the offense as well as hitting some dagger three pointers. Then you have the duo of Justyn Mutts and Keve Aluma. Both are habitually overlooked despite being two of the more productive players in the ACC. Aluma has a unique blend of inside-out scoring while Mutts is a constant triple-double threat. I’m planting my flag with the Hokies and riding them as far as they take me.
West Region
Overview
Cutri — A tale as old as time is dubbing Gonzaga as “pretenders” noting their lack of strength of schedule in the WCC, not being battle tested, and anything else a casual college basketball fan can think of. To me that is the laziest take, as Gonzaga is by far the class of this region and the most complete team in all of college basketball. The committee didn’t do the Zags any favors and loaded this region up with elite defensive-minded teams. After the first round (where they play one of the best 16 seeds we’ve seen in a while in Georgia State) Gonzaga potentially faces three straight defenses that rank in the top 20 of KenPom’s defensive efficiency metrics. Because of the high-caliber defensive units, I mostly see chalk in this region outside of Duke potentially stumbling in the second round against a dangerous Davidson team or being outphysicaled by Texas Tech.
Waddell — I think Gonzaga has a fairly solid chance of coming out of this region and getting back to the Final Four if things break right. I do believe they have one of the more difficult second-round matchups potentially if Boise State is able to beat Memphis. Boise is littered with players who can defend multiple positions and they play with the kind of physicality that has really bothered the Zags this year. The “Foster Loyer Bowl” will be entertaining as he faces off against his former team, which I ultimately think ends with a Davidson victory. I am not as fearful of Duke as most are and I think they fall to Texas Tech before they even reach Gonzaga anyway.
Favorite High Seed
[1] Gonzaga Bulldogs — Cutri
Gonzaga has had massive success in recent years in the NCAA Tournament, including two Elite Eights, two Sweet 16s, and two national title runners-up in the last six years. You can’t get much better than that. The path isn’t ideal, but I do not think any of the teams in this region has the same offensive firepower the Zags have, which can allow them to pull away late in any closely contested games. This may not be the best Gonzaga team offensively over the last few years, but what makes this team a bit different is their ability to protect the rim defensively behind future top-three pick in the NBA draft Chet Holmgren. This is their region to lose.
[1] Gonzaga Bulldogs — Waddell
It’s not exactly exciting, but I like Gonzaga a lot here in the West and think they waltz to a Final Four if they can get past that tricky second-round matchup. They have the ingredients needed for a deep run with strong guard play and major depth. I don’t think enough is said about depth in March but with foul trouble, fatigue and injuries playing a factor you simply have to be able to spell your starters without losing too much production. This why Baylor marched their way through the tournament so well a season ago; they had all of these things.
Favorite Cinderella
[10] Davidson Wildcats — Cutri
The Atlantic 10 regular season champs are as dangerous a double-digit seed as it comes. Dating back to the Steph Curry days, Bob McKillop’s Princeton-style five-out motion offensive is a well-oiled machine and pairing that with versatile and elite shooters (eighth nationally in 3pt FG%) is the makings of a team that can beat anyone. Yes, at times Davidson can get overwhelmed by length and athleticism and can struggle on defense (147th in defensive efficiency) but they supplement their weakness by rebounding the ball well (8th nationally) and limiting transition (38th percentile in transition defense). Duke better come ready to play in the second round.
[10] Vermont Catamounts — Waddell
I am extremely confident Vermont knocks off Arkansas in the first round. I know I might be in the minority here but they’re an extremely well-coached group with veterans, strong three-point shooting and a high-level point guard in Ryan Shungu that won’t rattle under pressure. I honestly think that if Vermont can come out knocking down a few shots and building a lead of about 5-7 points, the Hogs will panic which would likely unravel their entire game plan. I also love this setup for Rutgers as they would be facing an Alabama front court that is soft as Charmin if they get past Notre Dame in the play-in game. Rutgers is definitely a bad matchup for Bama. I think some folks are looking at New Mexico State to possibly make a small run, but I think Adama Sanogo takes their lunch money all game long and will make life difficult for the Aggies.
Midwest Region
Overview
Cutri — Bill Self must know someone on the committee, because Kansas finds themselves in the weakest region where I can see a ton of upsets happening. To me, the 3-6 seeds are all overseeded and very susceptible to early exits. The metrics hate both Wisconsin and Providence, LSU has just lost their head coach, and although Iowa enters the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country, can you really trust Fran McCaffery in a tournament setting? Another thing to mention is the public’s love for Iowa to come out of this region as a 5 seed, which I see as a massive leverage opportunity to fade. This could be dubbed as the region of chaos, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some whacky things happen.
Waddell — The Jayhawks are playing fantastic basketball right now, and if Bill Self can motivate a healthy Remy Martin, the sky is the limit. I think there is potential for a lot of chaos in this region with South Dakota State, Miami, Colgate and San Diego State all capable of winning a game or two in the tournament. All eyes will be on Keegan Murray and Iowa, one of the hottest teams in the country right now.
Favorite High Seed
[1] Kansas Jayhawks — Cutri
Not only do the Jayhawks get a pretty good path to the Final Four, they are also playing their best basketball of the season and are finally fully healthy. I’ve stated all year that this team is super dangerous with a healthy Remy Martin (who provides them with a second ball handler outside of Dajuan Harris) and a fully engaged David McCormack inside, who has seen major inconsistencies all season. Both are trending in the right direction, as they each played over 25 minutes in Kansas’s Big 12 tournament title win against Texas Tech. Bill Self hasn’t had the most success in March over the last few years, but this team has the talent and the path for him to finally break through. I like them to come out of the region.
[2] Auburn Tigers — Waddell
I’ll be watching Bruce Pearl and Auburn closely, as they’ve been unstoppable at home all year but have struggled on the road and in neutral-court games, which could absolutely haunt them in the tournament. The rim protection provided by Walker Kessler is elite and they have a bona fide future NBA All-Star in Jabari Smith. Those two plus the fact that they have steady guard play in veteran Zep Jasper, a walking bucket in KD Johnson and one of the better bench pieces in all of college basketball in Wendell Green and you really have the makings of a deep tournament run.
Favorite Cinderella
[10] Miami Hurricanes — Cutri
Guards, guards, guards. March is always dominated by guard play, and Miami has a plethora of playmaking guards at their disposal. The three-headed backcourt of Charlie Moore, Kam McGusty and Isaiah Wong will remind you a ton of last year’s Baylor’s backcourt (on offense, definitely not defensively) with their ability to score the ball from anywhere on the court. The Cane’s issues lie on the defensive end where they are a bit undersized and rank 155th in defensive efficiency. If Miami can keep teams like USC and Auburn off the offensive glass and expose them in transition, they can score with anyone.
[8] San Diego State Aztecs — Waddell
I know everyone is going to be looking to South Dakota State to make some noise and be the Cinderella for this region, and they very well could, but I’m actually going to be looking at another “SDSU” squad, the Aztecs of San Diego State. They don’t have a lot of firepower on offense, but their elite defense and deliberate pace is difficult for a lot of teams to handle, and they do have one of the sneakier stars in college basketball in Matt Bradley. He is capable of matching Ochai Agbaji bucket for bucket and if the Jayhawks have a bad shooting night the Aztecs could pull of a shocker.
South Region
Overview
Cutri — The South is overall the most difficult region from top to bottom to get out of, because it includes so many under-seeded teams. Seeds 3-5 are all undervalued by the committee, including Tennessee, who should have been on the 2 line after winning the SEC tournament; Illinois, who are regular season champions of the Big Ten; and Houston, who ranks fourth nationally overall per KenPom. Luckily for Arizona, their potential second-round matchup is one of the weaker ones in the tournament, but once they hit the Sweet 16 things will get extremely difficult. From a pure basketball enjoyment standpoint, this is the region with the best teams and the best matchups so certainly buckle up for some really good games.
Waddell — This bracket has the potential to be really fun as well as chaotic because I see multiple upsets potentially brewing. Arizona, Tennessee and Houston are my favorite teams in this region that I think have a legitimate shot of making the final four. Arizona is dealing with a key injury to point guard Kerr Kriisa, Villanova lacks depth and I’m just not that confident in Illinois cleaning up their turnover issues to be a real factor.
Favorite High Seed
[3] Tennessee Volunteers — Cutri
As I mentioned before, the Vols were underseeded by the committee and were thrown into one of the more difficult regions with a potential Sweet 16 matchup against Villanova (who they lost pretty badly to earlier in the year). But Tennessee is a completely different team than they were to start the year as they’ve seen their offense improve vastly. The Vols have always been stout defensively (third nationally) but the improved floor spacing created by the emergence of dual point guard Zakai Zeigler has opened up more driving lanes for Kennedy Chandler and Josiah-Jordan James and open shots for Santiago Vescovi. They are one of the few teams who can matchup with the size of Illinois or Arizona so if they can come out on top of a potential rematch against the veteran Villanova squad and Rick Barnes doesn’t hold them back, I like Tennessee to come out of this region.
[3] Tennessee Volunteers — Waddell
I’m picking the Vols to win this region, and it honestly scares me to death. Rick Barnes has always been a strong recruiter and he has always had some of the best talent on his teams. The issue is that his track record as a coach in March is atrocious and he frequently makes awful choices or decisions that ultimately cost his team. So I’m nervous about picking them to make a Final Four run, but I simply can’t overlook their fantastic roster that includes two young point guards that play much older in Kennedy Chandler/Zakai Zeigler as well as Swiss Army knife DFS stud Josiah-Jordan James. The Vols are equipped defensively to shut down a multitude of play styles and we saw that they were one of the only teams this season that actually semi-contained Oscar Tshiebwe. They can also lock down perimeter players when needed. I really think this is the year that Rick Barnes breaks through.
Favorite Cinderella
[12] UAB Blazers — Cutri
The Blazers got a tough draw against an incredibly solid Houston squad that can be called the bullies of college basketball due to their hard-nosed defense and work on the offensive glass. Yet, if there were ever a team that fit the mold of a double-digit Cinderella story, it is certainly UAB. They get after you with intense defensive pressure to make opponent’s back courts uncomfortable and turn the ball over. On offense, the like their name they can get hot from three in a hurry, ranking seventh nationally in 3pt FG%. March is about playmaking guards and UAB has a bona fide shot maker in the backcourt, 5-foot-11 dynamo Jelly Walker. Walker is the type of player who can put the team on his back down the stretch and will them to a victory. That is what March is all about and knowing UAB won’t back down, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a run.
[13] Chattanooga Mocs — Waddell
I was disappointed to see that some of my mid-major/low-major darlings like Longwood, UAB and Chattanooga were thrown into the same region. On top of that, they all have pretty tough matchups overall as well. UAB has this generation’s version of Mighty Mouse in Jalen Jelly Walker, and he is capable of giving Houston a lot of trouble. Longwood is a fun team that can shoot the lights out but obviously a first-round date with the Vols will prove to be too much for them. Lastly, my Mocs of Chattanooga are a team that play well above the mid-major level. Malachi Smith is an absolute stud, David Jean-Baptiste has the clutch gene, which he showed when he hit the game winner in their conference tournament final and Silvio De Sousa is a Kansas transfer with pedigree capable of playing bigger than he actually is. Kofi Cockburn is going to give them issues, but I think their guards have a slight advantage over the Illini and that will at least make it interesting. I like the Mocs to win one, possibly two games and don’t sleep on Sister Jean either. The Ramblers of Loyola Chicago could make the Sweet 16 and it wouldn’t shock anyone by now.
