March Madness Favorite First-Round Upsets

Here at FTN, our incredible team of college basketball experts will take you through each bracket, talking favorites, sleepers and upsets. Make sure you check out our March Madness Betting Guide where all our incredible content for the 2024 NCAA Tournament will be continuously updated throughout March Madness.

Everyone loves those first-round upsets. We love to watch those small mid-major teams challenge the elite powerhouse programs in the country, creating this year’s Cinderella stories. It’s easy to fall into the trap of predicting too many first-round upsets. Let’s denote a true “upset” as a team that is at least two seed lines below their opponent winning the game. Since tournament expansion in 1985, there have been an average of about 12 upsets per tournament. However, over the last two tournaments, there have been 14 upsets by teams that fit our criteria. The biggest opening-round surprises last year included No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia, No. 15 Princeton over No. 2 Arizona, No. 11 Pittsburgh over No. 6 Iowa State, No. 10 Penn State over No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson over No. 1 Purdue.

Let’s take a look at which first-round upsets are going to shock college basketball fans in March Madness!

Region: East

Upset: No. 14 Morehead State vs. No. 3 Illinois

Morehead State has everything you would want in a first-round upset. The Eagles have momentum, entering March Madness on a six-game winning streak. They dominated the Ohio Valley Conference with defense, ranking top 10 nationally in effective field-goal percentage allowed and top 20 at 2P interior defense, while holding opponents to just 31.1% from 3P range. They also bring incredible 3P volume on offense, with over 45% of their shots (25th-most) coming from beyond the arc. The Eagles are also great on the boards, ranking 44th in the country in average height. 

Illinois is certainly elite offensively at No. 3 in the country, and Terrence Shannon (23 PPG) was on a heater throughout the Big Ten Tournament. Shannon posted consecutive 40- and 34-point games and went 8-of-15 from 3P range. However, he is the centerpiece of an Illini team that is horrific on defense. Illinois ranks 93rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and simply doesn’t force turnovers (360th). They also allowed Big Ten opponents to shoot 38.3% from deep, giving Morehead State the opening they need to pull off a huge first-round upset. 

Region: Midwest

Upset: No. 12 McNeese State vs. No. 5 Gonzaga

Head coach Will Wade is back, and McNeese State is on fire. The Cowboys enter the NCAA Tournament on an 11-game winning streak, the third-longest in the nation. Wade made us take notice early in the nonconference with a 76-65 true road win at VCU, and 87-76 true road win at Michigan and an 81-60 destruction at UAB, who won the AAC Tournament and is a 12-seed in the East Region. TCU-transfer Shahada Wells is a scoring machine, averaging 17.8 PPG while shooting 40.2% from 3P range. Wells also averages 3.0 steals per game, which is part of a McNeese defensive attack that ranks sixth-best in defensive turnover percentage per KenPom. UMass transfer Javohn Garcia shoots over 45% from 3P range and has 10 straight games with double-digit scoring. McNeese is seventh-best in the nation in 3P accuracy, posting a robust 39.4% from beyond the arc. However, the Cowboys are not overly reliant on the 3P shot, generating only 28.7% of their points from deep. 

The counterargument you will hear is Gonzaga head coach Mark Few’s sustained success in this tournament. The Bulldogs have not lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2008, when Stephen Curry’s Davidson team ousted the Zags. This Gonzaga team is solid but struggled within the weak West Coast Conference with two losses to Saint Mary’s and a road upset loss to Santa Clara for the first time in 26 games. 

McNeese is not a normal small school program. They have a myriad of transfers and a big-time coach in Wade. I’m picking the Cowboys to send Gonzaga home in the opening round and pull the classic 12 vs. 5 upset. 

Region: Midwest

Upset: No. 14 Akron vs. No. 3 Creighton

Creighton’s style of play puts them on first-round upset alert against an Akron Zips team that is elite at defending the 3P shot. The Bluejays are unapologetic about their preference to fire from beyond the arc, generating over 48% of their shots within Big East play from long range. Their primary offense near the basket is generated by 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.1 PPG), who has failed to improve his limited offensive repertoire. Relying on rebounds and put-backs, Kalkbrenner doesn’t force teams to collapse on his post presence, forcing Creighton to shoot 3P bombs from even further away than most teams. That leads to higher variance and opens the door for a classic first-round upset. 

Despite being undersized (237th in average height), the Zips rank top 50 in defensive rebounding, including first within the MAC this season. Akron also held conference opponents to just 28.1% from deep and was 13th nationally (30%) at limiting the competition from deep. That plays well against Creighton and puts more pressure on Kalkbrenner inside. Akron had impressive nonconference performances, including a 65-62 loss on a neutral court to Utah State, and a two-point loss at always-tough UNLV. 

Creighton will allow Akron to get comfortable on offense, ranking dead-last in defensive turnover percentage, which contributed to a 21-point neutral-court loss to Colorado State and 15-point loss at the aforementioned UNLV. I’m fading the high-variance Bluejays against an experienced Akron coach in John Groce, who has won 22 or more games in three straight seasons.