Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Merry March Madness!
At this juncture one year ago, this typically boisterous college basketball voice fell silent. Uncrowned conference champions, empty stadiums, cancelled brackets — COVID-19’s sinister wrath robbed everyone of March’s annual rite.
However, with the void finally and euphorically filled, the NCAA Men’s Tournament is on the horizon. Everyone, including bizzaro Steve in accounting who is obsessed only with Netflix murder shows and Rainbow 6, is scribbling teams on bracket lines in the hopes of boosting the bank account and earning office bragging rights.
This prognosticator, similar to the millions, is also submitting multiple entries with fingers and toes crossed.
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NCAA Bracket Picks
As pictured above, here’s my pretzel logic behind a few of my picks region-by-region:
West Region – Gonzaga to Final Four
Ohio over UVA — The Cavs’ COVID-19 disruption — they’re arriving late to the Indy bubble — combined with its unpack-line defense that has surrendered an uncharacteristic 0.976 points per possession in their last five games has it on upset alert. Gary Trent U is riding a heater offensively scorching the nets at a 40.6% clip from three in their last six games. Jason Preston, the Bobcats’ star player, will soon become a household name.
Gonzaga to Final Four — Next to Illinois, no team in college basketball is playing at a higher level than the unblemished ‘Zags. They’re the nation’s most explosive offense tallying 1.268 points per possession. Also ranked top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency, Gonzaga is wonderfully balanced. Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert are top-20 NBA Draft pick locks and Drew Timme is a premier post presence. Spout all your nonsense about conference affiliation, but this team is loaded and historically spectacular per predictive analytics. Most importantly, the Bulldogs’ path is the easiest of all the No. 1 seeds. They were atop my big board.
Other March musings: I believe this region will be quite chalky. Many will point to UCSB as a potential Cinderella candidate, but underestimating Creighton isn’t recommended … Oregon over Iowa is also trendy, but the Hawkeyes have the ball handlers to freely break the Ducks’ press. However, the Quackers are a tremendous value at +2500 to reach the Final Four … Oklahoma/Missouri is undoubtedly one of the biggest snore fests in any region. OU, which has dropped seven straight against the spread, is a hard fade. Feed Jerimiah Tilmon and Kobe Brown in the post and the Tigers should roar to Round 2.
East Region Bracket Picks – UConn to Final Four
Georgetown over Colorado — Admittedly, this is trendy. All the cool kids are hanging out at the Hoyas-themed cafeteria table. It’s warranted. On a Patrick Ewing-coached team, it shouldn’t surprise a soul, the Hoyas blast the glass, generating a second chance nearly a third of their possessions. Most impressively over their last nine games, they’ve splashed 38.5% from three and yielded a mere 0.893 points per possession, the 16th-best mark in the nation during that span. Colorado, experienced and leathery, is a terrific collective spearheaded by floor general McKinley Wright. However, the Hoyas are peaking at the right time and can match CU’s near historic free-throw shooting, point for point. Pool it all together and G’Town marches on.
Florida St. to the Elite Eight — Leonard Hamilton, born in the Transylvanian Alps around 1467, simply doesn’t age. During his extended tenure in Tallahassee, he’s established an identifiable basketball culture predicated on three factors — length, defense and threes. FSU, due to its sloppy handles (20.2 TO%), will be tested by UNCG, but it has the bodies to match Georgetown and Michigan. The Wolverines, down Isaiah Livers, are arguably the most vulnerable No. 1 seed in the Dance. If Raiquan Gray and Co. survive and square off against Juwan Howard’s bunch, they will throw major poundage at UM’s Hunter Dickson. Get him in foul trouble and the Wolverines offense stagnates.
UConn to the Final Four — Whether by the eye test or advanced metric measurements, the Huskies have earned their Snausages over the last month. In their last eight games, they compiled 1.192 points per possession on offense and 0.884 points per possession on defense, both top-10 nationally. Electrifying from three, featuring excellent guard from James Bouknight and blessed with rim protectors in Isaiah Whaley and Adama Sanogo, Dan Hurley has the weaponry to rattle the entire region. Crazy stuff happens in March and a 7-seed reaching the Final Four really isn’t that outlandish.
Other March musings: When the dust settles after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, no region will have more slash marks for those who adhere to chalk. Expect it to live in the upside down … Michigan St. will be this year’s First Four member to win another game. The Spartans came alive offensively down the stretch and owns the defensive prowess to not only knock off UCLA, but also BYU … Texas/Abilene Christian is sure to be a barn burner. ABCU pressures like few teams in CBB, coaxing a turnover on 23.5% of opponent possessions. The Wildcats also have a skilled seven-footer Kolton Kohl. The ‘Horns, a solid +700 future to emerge from the East unscathed, will be challenged, though should win. … Watch out for LSU. Cam Thomas and Friends are dynamite offensively ranking No. 5 in points per possession scored. If committed to playing defense, as witnessed in the SEC tournament, the Tigers could bounce the Wolverines in the Round of 32.
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South Region Bracket Picks – Arkansas makes a run
Winthrop over Villanova — The Eagles are dripping with sex appeal. Luring Cinderella chasers like a curvy silhouette in any Red Light District, Winthrop is sure to be a tournament heartthrob. It’s arguably the deepest team in the entire field, equipped with hard-nosed rebounders, three-point gunners and dedicated defenders. Chandler Vaudrin, Charles Falden and Chase Claxton can really get after it on both ends. Villanova, down Big East Co-Player of the year Colin Gillespie, are highly exploitable. Leaky defensively, the Wildcats ranked second-to-last in three-point percentage D in Big East play and, in general, lack rim protectors. Also, ice cold on moneyballs netting an abnormal 26.8%, they are primed to for an early elimination.
Arkansas to the Final Four — Though tossed from the SEC tournament semifinals by LSU, the Razorbacks aren’t canned ham. Riders on the Muss Bus could be rewarded with a highly advantageous spot in their office pools. Arkansas, one of the fastest teams in the country, brim with long, athletic scorers and willing defenders. In the month leading up to the Big Dance, the Razorbacks conceded only 0.888 points per possession. On offense they attack downhill, drawing ample and-ones and free-throw attempts. Moses Moody, who has flourished down the stretch, is one of the game’s freshman sensations. Total it up, and Arkansas owns the necessary characteristic to roll through Ohio St. and Baylor.
Other March musings: North Carolina will give Baylor everything it can handle. The Heels’ length and defensive stoutness should wax the glass against Scott Drew’s matchup zone. If shots fall for UNC like they did in the ACC Tournament, it will threaten an early knockout punch. … Some will jump on the Texas Tech bandwagon due to recency bias, but don’t be seduced. The Red Raiders were bottom barrel in three-point percentage D in the Big 12. Utah St.’s Brock Miller and Steven Ashworth, who both shoot 37% from distance, could unleash on them.
Midwest Region Bracket Picks – Illinois Final Four bound
Illinois to the Final Four — Though Gonzaga is in the conversation, no team in the country is playing at a more nuclear level than Brad Underwood’s Illini. Illinois ranks top-seven nationally in adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency, predictive slottings that bode well for its national title chances. The Illini boast the best inside-outside combination, Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu, in the tournament. They’re deep, experienced, skilled and tough. It’s why this writer has dubbed them the “Street Fighting Illini.” Illinois’ top-half draw is a rough road with potential matchups against Loyola-Chicago, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma St. Still, with only one loss since mid-January, it’s a buzzy favorite for a reason.
Loyola over Georgia Tech — Unquestionably one of the best matchups in this year’s Dance, the Ramblers and Yellow Jackets could engage in a game for the ages. Porter Moser’s club is the nation’s staunchest defense, ranking No. 1 in points per possession allowed. Not to be outdone, The Face Shield, Josh Pastner, has the current ACC Player of the Year, Moses Wright. Jose Alvarado’s moxie could be problematic for Loyola’s guards, but, in the end, Cameron Krutwig’s creativity around the basket should push the Ramblers into Round 2.
Other March musings: Oklahoma St., featuring future multi-millionaire Cade Cunningham, is a force to reckon with. More than just the likely NBA star, they’ve defended their tails off over the last month surrendering only 0.927 points per possession. They’re scary and a legit threat to Illinois in what could be a SPICY battle considering Underwood’s past … Houston is a positionless squad that is pesky defensively and is glass tenacious, but the AAC is a far cry from the Big Ten and Big 12. … Careful with West Virginia. Huggy Bears has a dynamic duo in Deuce McBride and Derrick Culver, but defensively, the Mountaineers are a shell of previous editions. They likely win a max of only two games.
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