How to Win Your March Madness Bracket Pool

The bracket is set. Now it’s time to win.

Over the next few days, offices and friend groups across the country will be locked in, analyzing matchups, debating Final Four picks, and searching for this year’s Cinderella story. But while some will rely on gut feelings and blind luck, smart bracket players use data to gain an edge.

At FTN, we’ve studied the trends, run the numbers, and identified the key strategies you need to fill out a winning 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket. Here’s what you need to know before making your picks.

FTN Odds to Win March Madness

1. Duke - 32.9%
2. Houston - ??%

Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Tips

Don’t Overvalue No. 1 Seeds

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, there has only been one season where all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four (2008). In fact, there have only been three other times that three of the No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four (1997, 1999, 2015). Over the past nine tournaments since that 2015 season, the average number of No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four was just 1.22. Last season, we saw two No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four, with Connecticut and Purdue both advancing to the championship game. There have been 15 times where two No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four since 1985, equating to a 37.5% occurrence. Last year was only the ninth time that two No. 1 seeds have met in the championship game. When completing your bracket, it is a mistake to put more than two No. 1 seeds all the way through to San Antonio.

The Most Common First-Round Upset? No. 11 vs. No. 6

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How to Win Your March Madness Bracket Pool

Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Tips

Don’t Overvalue No. 1 Seeds

The Most Common First-Round Upset? No. 11 vs. No. 6

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