Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021-22 men’s college basketball season is finally here, and opening week is loaded with matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for the Saturday night matchup of No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs against the No. 5 Texas Longhorns.
Gonzaga vs. Texas
(Line: Gonzaga -8.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
All hail the Zags. Gonzaga comes in as the unanimous preseason No. 1 team in the nation for the second straight season and is everyone’s pick to cut down the nets in April. I can’t really say I blame them — the Bulldogs are absolutely loaded top to bottom — especially in the frontcourt, where they have the best returning player in the country Drew Timme and the top-rated freshman in the class unicorn Chet Holmgren.
We all know Gonzaga’s story: Mark Few’s flawless continuity motion offense with dazzling ball movement and lightning quick transition opportunities with have the Zags offense buzzing as the best in the country. But it’s the defense that has historically limited Gonzaga’s dream of a championship, and although 7-footer Holmgren should help, I’m not so sure the defensive struggles are fully resolved.
They go up against a No. 5 Texas team that assembled what looks like an All-Star team on paper via the transfer portal. The Texas roster has virtually no holes in it with All-American candidates both in the frontcourt and backcourt with even a few All-Conference-caliber players coming off the bench. Yet, what makes me so high on Texas is the defensive potential new head coach Chris Beard brings to the table. Beard preaches unselfishness and “defense-first” which has been majorly successful at the highest level.
Questions about Texas’s lack of continuity and having “too many mouths to feed” are legit concerns. But, if anyone can get a bunch of players to buy in and remove their egos, it is Chris Beard. After watching their exhibition game and their first win of the season, the defensive connectivity of this new bunch looks way ahead of schedule. I think Texas has the more talented back court, will be able to string together more stops on defense and has the overall more talented team (I have them ranked No. 1 in the country). Not only will I be taking them at this insane price, although the Kennel will be bumping, I think Texas can win this game outright.
The Pick: Texas +8.5/Texas ML
(Check out all my bets in the FTN Bet Tracker.)
