Final 4 Predictions: Top 50 Based on 10K March Madness Simulations (2025)

Looking for Final Four predictions to help you win your March Madness 2025 bracket pool? We’ve got you covered.

FTN simulated the 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to find the 50 most likely combinations of Final 4 teams.

To access this data yourself, check out our March Madness Simulations and snag an FTN sub.

Final 4 Predictions

1. Auburn (1), Florida (1), Duke (1), Houston (1)

FTN Model Final 4 Probability: 2.00%​

All four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four has only happened once in the tournament’s 39-year history under the current format (2008). That might sound rare — and you might be wondering why we say it’s the most likely in our Final Four predictions.

But 1 out of 39 is a 2.5% chance — and our model shows a 2% chance of it happening this year. In other words: Yes, this is the most likely Final 4 for 2025, but it’s still not very likely to happen, and no more likely this year than any other.

Our model shows that all four of these teams have at least a 69% chance of making the Sweet 16. They are pretty safe bets for deep runs. Auburn’s dominance in the paint, Florida’s perimeter shooting, Duke’s star power, and Houston’s suffocating defense make them standouts.

Still, the odds remind us: even the “most likely” scenario faces steep chaos in March. The model loves their consistency, but brackets rarely play nice.

2. Auburn (1), St. John’s (2), Duke (1), Houston (1)

FTN Model Final 4 Probability: 1.04%​

This mix swaps in a No. 2 seed, St. John’s, in place of Florida.

The FTN model gives this combo a 1.04% chance — half as likely as all four No. 1s.

This one is a bit surprising, because St. John’s isn’t viewed as the strongest No. 2 seed in the tournament with Alabama and Tennessee holding the same position. But Florida would have to go through (possibly) tournament staple UConn and a strong No. 4 seed in Maryland.

St. John’s has the No. 7 adjusted defensive rating in the nation. If they make it this far, defense will be the cause.

Top 50 Final Four Predictions

Below you’ll see all 50 of the most likely Final 4 combinations based on our simulations.

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