Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
March Madness has been packed with great matchups and full of drama and Cinderella stories. We are finally down to the big one, as the UNC Tar Heels are set to face the Kansas Jayhawks in the National Championship game. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for the National Championship.
North Carolina vs. Kansas
(Line: Kansas -4, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The No. 8-seeded UNC Tar Heels have done the unthinkable and ruined Coach K’s “retirement tour” from Duke not once, but twice this season. Duke’s fairytale ending was not in the books, and instead, first year coach and UNC great Hubert Davis is left standing with a chance to take home a national title. They are matched up against a Kansas team that many thought had an “easy path” to the title. But regardless, they are playing their best basketball of the season on both ends of the court. Both teams love to push the pace, ranking in the top 65 in tempo, per KenPom, and in the top 87% percentile in transition offensive efficiency, per Synergy. We should see a ton of possessions and a fun one here in the title game.
The key to this game, and what has been the story of UNC’s success all season, will be the play of the Tar Heel backcourt. If Caleb Love and RJ Davis are locked in, UNC looks like a top-10 team in the country. If they disappear, as they have done over a few stretches of this season, UNC looks like a team that doesn’t belong in the tournament. So far in March, the Tar Heel perimeter has been outstanding and the main reason why North Carolina has found itself in the title game (just look at what Caleb Love did in the 2H against both Duke and UCLA). Will Kansas be able to neutralize UNC’s backcourt? Bill Self does have the perfect weapon in lockdown perimeter defender Dajuan Harris at his disposal to make life on Love extremely difficult (as he just did against Collin Gillespie and Kameron McGusty). UNC’s offense is typically initiated through the high-ball screen, and Kansas does defend the PnR ball-handler well, grading out in the 91st percentile, per Synergy. Where they have struggled is defending the roller (40% percentile), and if UNC is going to have success it’ll most likely come from Brady Manek on the pop or Armando Bacot on the roll. A major storyline heading into the championship game will be how lingered Bacot is after injuring his ankle down the stretch against Duke. Kansas has struggled protecting the rim this year, but Bacot’s ankle may limit his effectiveness in the paint.
The Tar Heel defense has improved here in March but has shown some lapses throughout the season and ranked 63rd nationally, per KenPom, prior to the start of the tournament. Duke found success scoring against the UNC defense in the Final Four, despite a poor shooting performance from three, scoring 1.12 ppp. North Carolina’s defense could be exploited in both transition (27th percentile) and in the paint (19th percentile in post defense), and a red-hot Kansas team has all the tools to score in bunches. I envision coach Davis will deploy Leaky Black on streaky shooter Ochai Agbaji, but the Jayhawks will have mismatches in basically all other positions. David McCormack will look to follow up his career performance against a banged-up Bacot, Jalen Wilson will have a speed advantage on Manek and Christian Braun will have the size advantage on RJ Davis.
Kansas seems to have found something as the tournament has gone on (especially defensively) and has way too many weapons here for UNC to keep up. The difference will be Harris’s defensive assignment on Love. If he can slow down UNC’s backcourt production, Kansas should run away with this one in a high-possession game. Manek and Bacot should have success, but I don’t think UNC will be able to get enough stops on the defensive side. Hubert Davis’s magical run comes to an end. Rock Chalk Jayhawk for Bill Self to win his second National Championship in Lawrence.
The Pick: Kansas -4
*Disclaimer: I will have a UNC ML bet as a hedge to my +1800 (2-unit) Kansas future. If I did not have an open future I would be on Kansas -4*
