NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and conference play provides matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for Wednesday’s slate.
Alabama vs. LSU
(Line: Alabama -3, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’ve been way too early on the LSU regression, but hey, sometimes you have to spend money to make money. Opponents can’t continue to shoot a mere 26% from three-point range against one of the best three-point FGA defenses in the country (47% of opponents’ shots are from three). Also, LSU’s shot quality metrics have been vastly declining in conference play, which is a combination of better opposing defenses and losing their starting point guard to injury, Xavier Pinson. An inconsistent Arkansas team was the one to put a spoke in the LSU train, but I think that may be just the beginning. There isn’t a better spot nor team where the LSU regression will continue than an Alabama team at home on a three-game losing streak in a “must win” spot. Alabama themselves are way past due for some positive 3-point regression shooting a merely 32% from three (only 27% in conference play) while being the 30th highest 3-point FGA offense in the country. LSU has been able to win games due to their elite top-ranked defense forcing turnovers at the fourth-highest rate nationally, but this Alabama back court is one of the best in the country behind Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford and shouldn’t be bothered by the LSU ball pressure. Of course, LSU will have an advantage inside, but this is the perfect spot for Alabama to see some positive shooting regression and we should see their ceiling performance against an LSU squad who may be overachieving. Tuscaloosa should be rocking, Roll Tide.
The Pick: Alabama -3
