Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing and conference play provides matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for Tuesday’s slate.
UCLA vs. Arizona
(Line: Arizona -3.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have a huge west coast PAC 12 matchup between the top two teams in the conference UCLA and Arizona. The Wildcats have been one of the biggest surprises of the season behind their newfound high-tempo continuity offense brought in by Gonzaga’s Tommy Lloyd and elite rim protection, which has led them to a No. 3 rating nationally in the AP Polls. UCLA has been trying to keep up with their lofty preseason expectations and have put together a solid resume so far with losses only to Gonzaga and a surging Oregon team. With fans back at Pauley Pavilion, the status of Arizona forward Azuolas Tubelis in question and UCLA’s ability to slow down and dictate the pace, I’ll be siding with Mick Cronin and the Bruins in this one.
The key to this game will be slowing down the elite transition attack of Arizona (first nationally in average offensive possession length) and UCLA has one of the best game-managing point guards in the country in Tyger Campbell. I expect Mick Cronin to try to shift this into a halfcourt game, which would certainly favor UCLA at home. Arizona also has been susceptible to perimeter breakdowns defensively (see what the Illini backcourt did to them) and UCLA has one of the most isolation-heavy perimeter-based offenses in the country. Although they do take a ton of inefficient mid-range shots, the UCLA perimeter attack should be able to exploit the Arizona guards’ soft defense. On the Wildcats’ side, I’m sure Lloyd will look to pound it inside to Christian Koloko and Oumar Ballo to direct the UCLA defense to pack it in more and open more looks for deadly sharpshooter Ben Mathurin, which UCLA should have a ton of trouble defending. Unless Mathurin puts on an unworldly shooting performance, the Bruins seem to have more schematic advantages in this one behind the home crowd, the loss of Tubelis, the ability to pack in their defense and dictate the pace behind their elite point guard Campbell. I especially love getting the points as a home dog.
The Pick: UCLA +3.5
