College basketball odds and betting picks for Tuesday (1/18)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and conference play provides matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for Tuesday’s slate.

VCU vs. Davidson

(Line: VCU -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Davidson comes into this game as one of the hottest teams in the country, having rattled off 13 straight wins. Their stellar play comes behind insanely hot three-point shooting (42% 3pt FG%) predicated by open looks created out of the patented McKillop Princeton style off-ball cutting offense. The problem here is they run into an absolute gauntlet of a defense here (second nationally in defensive efficiency) in one of the hardest environments to play at. VCU will continuously pressure Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer, overplay passing lanes and take Davidson out of their Princeton motion as much as they can. VCU is also adept at defending the three-point line only allowing opponents to shoot 25% from beyond the arch and Davidson will be forced to initiate their offense from near half court. VCU’s offense isn’t going to excite anyone but Davidson’s packed in “bend but don’t break” defense is a good matchup for a VCU team with alarming turnover issues. Davidson will eventually see some three-point shooting regression, and on the road against the VCU havoc is a great spot to bet against it.

The Pick: VCU -2.5

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

(Line: Tennessee -6.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tennessee has had some questionable performances coming out of their late December COVID-19 issues, losing three of their last five, with one of the two wins being an overtime win at home against a shorthanded Ole Miss team. Their latest was an embarrassing 30-point loss on the road against rival Kentucky. I’m seeing this as a buy-low spot for this Volunteer team that has historically matched up very well against Vanderbilt with Rick Barnes being 4-0 against Jerry Stackhouse and an average margin of victory if 14 points. The Commodore offense revolves around the playmaking ability of Scotty Pippen Jr., taking a ton of three pointers (at a low 31%) and scoring off of turnovers. Pippen will have to deal with ball hawk Kennedy Chandler all game which will make life hard on the Vanderbilt offense and force a ton of contested three pointers and nothing at the rim. I love the bounceback spot and the matchup for Tennessee, as Barnes should have Tennessee playing like a top-15 team again.

The Pick: Tennessee -6.5

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Syracuse vs. Clemson

(Line: Syracuse -3, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Taking a quick look at this game, you’ll first notice that a 38.5% three-point shooting team against a weak Syracuse zone may be a really good matchup. But looking under the hood a bit more, it’s Syracuse that may have the matchup advantages here at home. Clemson has seen a decent amount of zone this year but has struggled mightily against it (see 2H of Boston College), scoring 0.77 points per possession, per Synergy. The Clemson defense is elite at defending the pick-and-roll, but Syracuse rarely runs it and their offense is predicated around off-ball screens an creating three-point looks which Clemson has struggled against (see Virginia) and their packed-in defense allows 41.5% of opponents FGAs from three. Syracuse is a lethal three-point shooting team, and I am more on the side that Clemson will continue to see some regression to the mean in their 3pt % that started the season on fire (23.5% from three in their last two games). This should be a three-point shooting contest, and I’ll side with the Orange at home.

The Pick: Syracuse -3