Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The best part of the college basketball season is finally here, and the Sweet 16 is upon us. March Madness is packed with great matchups that are always full of drama and potential Cinderella stories. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for the Friday Sweet 16 games.
Miami vs. Iowa State
(Line: Miami -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)
“Guards in March” is a narrative that many dub as the most important characteristic a team needs to advance throughout the tournament, and the Hurricanes certainly fit that mold behind a three-headed monster in the backcourt of Charlie Moore, Kam McGusty and Isaiah Wong. Miami was able to overcome tremendous size disparities against both USC and Auburn on their way to the Sweet 16 on the back of their stellar perimeter.
The most impressive thing about this Miami team is that they do not turn the ball over at all, with only 7 turnovers so far throughout the tournament, and the Hurricanes rank sixth nationally in turnover percentage. That will be key going up against a highly pressurized Iowa State offense that not only will deny passing lanes and look to take the Canes out of their offensive sets (Wisconsin’s swing was blown up from the tip) but also force live ball turnovers to spring their otherwise anemic offense that ranks 160th nationally. Miami’s dynamic backcourt shouldn’t be too bothered by the Cyclone defensive pressure, as they don’t run much off-ball action and rely on a ton of pick and roll that extends and spaces the defense out, leaving any overaggression susceptible to backdoor layups, which we saw against Auburn.
Defense is where The U really struggles, ranking 121st nationally, yet it is predominantly inside the paint and the only offense Iowa State gets is from their extremely streaky guards Izaiah Brockington, Tyrese Hunter and Gabe Kalsheur. Miami’s backcourt should be able to solve the puzzle of the Cyclone pressure defense and generate enough offense to pull this one out. Although their rim protection is concerning, Iowa State at times looks like it couldn’t score 5 on 3.
The Pick: Miami -2
