Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The best part of the College Basketball season is finally here, and the Round of 32 is upon us. The opening weekend is packed with great matchups that are always full of drama and potential Cinderella stories. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for day four of March Madness.
(All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ohio State vs. Villanova
(Line: Villanova -5)
Jay Wright is an absolute wizard in a short-prep tourney situation, and it certainly helps when you can rely on two savvy veteran guards in your back court. Yet, the matchup here against Ohio State could cause some interesting issues for the Wildcats. The one area Villanova struggles defensively is in the paint, as they are a bit undersized and rank 132nd in 2pt FG% and 165th in defensive rebounding nationally. Behind All-American EJ Liddell and bruisers Zed Key and Kyle Young, the Buckeyes post up at the fifth-highest frequency in the country and at the 14th-highest efficiency. The knock on Ohio State all year has been their porous perimeter and ball-screen defense, and we know Jay Wright is going to ball screen them to death with Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore. Yet, Nova’s pick-and-roll action isn’t built to break down the poor isolation defenders of Ohio State, it is more to create mismatches and quickly move the ball to find open shooters. We also see a lot of Villanova’s offensive ball-screen actions actually used to set up post-ups for the guards, yet Ohio State has the length and size with Jamari Wheeler and Malaki Branham to defend it. Having a veteran leader like Kyle Young back is huge for Chris Holtmann and the Buckeyes, and they should give Villanova enough trouble in the paint to make this a competitive game. We should see a slow half-court execution battle here, and I like getting the points in a game that I capped more at 2-3 points.
The Pick: Ohio State +5
Iowa State vs. Wisconsin
(Line: Wisconsin -5)
Despite their success, the metrics have not loved Wisconsin all season, and they run into an aggressive Iowa State team whose style of play they have not seen at all in Big Ten play. The Big Ten is loaded with super talented bigs where offenses look to post-up at high frequencies and defenses clog the paint. Iowa State does not fit that mold at all, as they don’t have a traditional big on the roster, and defensively they pressure the ball handlers aggressively and deny passing lanes, essentially blowing up any offensive action their opponent is running. This could spell trouble for the Wisconsin swing offense, as it’s reliant on patience and off-ball movement, setting up their mobile bigs and Johnny Davis to score. Iowa State simply won’t let that happen, and the key to this game will be how effective a banged-up Davis (ankle) can create offense himself. On offense, although Iowa State is not efficient by any means (144th nationally) they could spread the Wisconsin bigs out, which they haven’t really seen much in conference play. We just saw the Badgers struggle a bit with a spread-out Colgate offense. Iowa State is certainly going to make it uncomfortable on the Wisconsin offense, and with a banged-up Davis and a guard who can carry the offense in Izaiah Brockington, the Cyclones have a good shot at pulling off the upset here.
The Pick: Iowa State +5
