College basketball odds and betting picks for the NCAA Tournament second round (Saturday slate)

The best part of the college basketball season is finally here and the Round of 32 is upon us. The opening weekend is packed with great matchups that are always full of drama and potential Cinderella stories. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for day three of March Madness.

(All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Tennessee vs. Michigan

(Line: Tennessee -6)

The Vols have that locked-in, terminator look to them pretty similar to what I’ve seen from past champions as they’ve advanced through the tournament (like last year’s Baylor or previous Nova teams). The focus on this matchup with Michigan is the health of Wolverine point guard Devante Jones who missed their opening round game with concussion symptoms and is a game time decision. Even if Jones is able to go, a rusty (missed the last few practices) or limited point guard is certainly a disadvantage against the Vols. What Tennessee does defensively can give Michigan a ton of problems as they pressure the ball defensively (15^th nationally in turnover % defense) and have one of the best interior defenses in country that has shut down the likes of Azuolas Tubelis and Oscar Tshiebwe (twice) during the regular season. Michigan’s offense runs through their talented post man Hunter Dickinson who should have his hands full and although backup point guard Frankie Collins played well against Colorado State, this Tennessee back court is a different beast. Michigan has struggled all year defensively with ball screen coverage and with Tennessee’s improved floor spacing and the emergence of a secondary point guard in Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee should have no problems exploiting the Michigan drop coverage.

The Pick: Tennessee -6

UCLA vs. St. Mary’s

(Line: UCLA -3)

The underrated WCC is looking to make some noise this tournament after getting three teams into the tournament and a 2-1 start (very close to 3-0 with USF). St. Mary’s gets tasked with a veteran UCLA team in round two who everyone remembers from last year’s incredible Cinderella run. What has always stuck out to me about this UCLA team is that last year’s run was predicated around incredibly tough and inefficient shot making that ran hot, and I’m not sure the Bruins would be able to survive an off-shooting night. In steps the Gaels who’s calling card under Tony Bennett has been their incredibly efficient defense (ninth nationally) that forces a ton of isolation-based inefficient contested shots (4^th nationally in 3pt FGA defense and first in assists per field goal made defense). On offense, St. Mary’s runs an infinite amount of ball screens with Tommy Kuhse who is playing his best basketball of his career and UCLA can be exposed in their ball screen defense. All-conference defender Logan Johnson will have the assignment on slowing down Tyger Campbell who is the head of the snake for the Bruins and in my opinion their most important player. UCLA’s ceiling lies on the shot making ability of Juzang and Jaquez on the wings and with Juzang still looking banged up with an ankle injury and how tough the Gaels will make it on Jaquez and Campbell, I like getting the points and think we see St. Mary’s in the Sweet 16.

The Pick: St. Mary’s +3