Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The best part of the college basketball season is finally here, as March Madness opening weekend is underway. The opening round is packed with great matchups that are always full of drama and potential Cinderella stories. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for the first day of March Madness.
(All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Illinois vs. Chattanooga
(Line: Illinois -7.5)
The Illini come into the tournament as an undervalued 4 seed after dealing with a plethora of injuries throughout the season while still being able to pull out a Big Ten regular-season championship. They get a matchup with a very solid Chattanooga team that will look to slow down the pace and make this a halfcourt game. The issue for this Mocs is that although they were able to overwhelm teams throughout the season with their size and athleticism, they won’t be able to do that here against the Illini. The biggest spotlight will be inside where Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa will get the difficult assignment in slowing down goliath Kofi Cockburn. The Mocs haven’t had much success protecting the rim all year ranking 272nd in 2pt FG% which should lead to Kofi having a monster game inside. On defense, the Illini should be extremely comfortable with the swing action and the slow pace of the Mocs run as it has similarities to that of Wisconsin. Ball hawk Trent Frazier should make life hard on slashing Malachi Smith and with Kofi running wild inside and x-factor Andre Curbelo finally healthy, I like the Illini to run away with this one.
The Pick: Illinois -7.5
Davidson vs. Michigan State
(Line: Michigan State -1.5)
Backing the Spartans in March is a narrative you hear often but is not something I want to get behind in this matchup with a dangerous Davidson squad. Michigan State tumbled down the stretch of Big Ten play, losing eight of their last 13 games, yet the shot quality metrics actually have them losers of 13 straight based on the quality of shots taken. The inconsistencies in the Spartans’ play are alarming, and they meet with a Davidson team that has been far from inconsistent. Davidson’s Princeton-style offense is a well-oiled machine in the halfcourt behind five guys that can all step out and shoot the three (rank eighth nationally in 3pt FG%). We know Michigan State struggles to generate offense without turning the ball over in the halfcourt and likes to supplement their offense with quick transition buckets, but Davidson grades out in the 38th percentile nationally in transition defense. Davidson should be able to score with their off-ball movement in this one and with coach Tom Izzo still rolling out inconsistent rotations and still trying to figure out to right the ship, I think Davidson out-executes Sparty to death in the halfcourt and we see a barrage of Davidson three balls leading them to a win.
The Pick: Davidson +1.5
Purdue vs. Yale
(Total: 142.5)
Yale earns a trip to the tournament after opportunistically knocking off Ivy League powerhouse Princeton in the conference championship game where they were able to hit numerous tough contested jump shots (shot quality actually had them as double-digit losers). They get matched up here against an offensive juggernaut in Purdue (second nationally) where I don’t know how they will be able to get any stops. This won’t be a game where Yale will try to limit possessions and make Purdue grind it out in the half court as Yale ranks 91st in tempo per KenPom and do a poor job getting back in transition (ninth nationally in defensive average possession length), and that is where someone like Jaden Ivey can really take advantage of. It’s no secret that Purdue wants to get the ball inside to bigs Zach Edey and Trevion Williams (second-highest post rate in the nation) and Yale doesn’t have the bodies to be able to defend it ranking 233rd in 2pt FG% defense. We could see Purdue have a field day inside and Ivey run wild in transition where Purdue puts up 90-plus points similarly to what they did in six of their first seven games of the season. The defensive side for Purdue is a different story as they are an absolute disaster in ball screen defense ranking 102nd in defensive efficiency and we’ve seen the Yale backcourt’s shot making ability, especially Azar Swain. With the huge offensive advantage Purdue has along with their suspect defense and Yale’s willingness to run, this should be a shootout.
The Pick: Over 142.5
Loyola vs. Ohio State
(Line: Pick ‘em)
The good news for Ohio State is that their injured frontcourt should be available to play in this matchup against Loyola. The bad news is even with a healthy frontcourt, I don’t think the Buckeyes will be able to overcome their flaws here as they limp into the tournament losers of four of their last five. The main concern with Ohio State is on the defensive end (131st nationally) where they really struggle out on the perimeter defending ball screens. Loyola has picked up their pick and roll rate now that slasher Marquis Kennedy is healthy, and they grade out in the 94th percentile in pick and roll efficiency. Young head coach Drew Valentine has revamped the Rambler offense that now has elite floor spacing and shot quality which should be a problem for this Ohio State perimeter. On defense, Loyola looks completely locked in as they’ve held all three opponents in the Missouri Valley tournament to under 60 points. The Loyola bigs of course will have their hands full attempting to slowdown All-American EJ Liddell, but I think Loyola’s execution on offense and ability to break down the weak Ohio State perimeter defense should lead to the victory.
The Pick: Loyola pk
