Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The best part of the College Basketball season is finally here and the Elite Eight is upon us. March Madness is packed with great matchups that are always full of drama and potential Cinderella stories. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for Sunday’s Elite Eight games.
Miami vs. Kansas
(Line: Kansas -5.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Canes were able to handle Iowa State with ease in the Sweet 16, as their elite backcourt played with poise and used the Cyclones’ pressure against them (also helps when Kameron McGusty drops 27 points). Miami has been able to use their advantage in the backcourt in all three tournament games to this point, but they now run into the Jayhawks, whose elite backcourt of their own will neutralize that advantage. The emergence of Remy Martin in March has been game-changing for the Kansas offense, as he’s become their go-to guy for offensive production when things become stagnant. His matchup with Charlie Moore at the point will be incredibly fun to watch.
Schematically, it’s going to be very interesting to see how Bill Self game plans for this one, as Miami plays five-out with absolutely no post presence. Will Bill Self try to take advantage of that by pounding the ball inside to David McCormack, while potentially allowing some serious mismatches on defense with him guarding the perimeter? Or will Self play more of a small-ball lineup with Jalen Wilson at the five and Remy Martin and Dajuan Harris sharing ball-handling responsibilities? Most likely, it is a mixture of both depending on the game flow, which makes me believe that Kansas has a lot more paths to victory.
They can take advantage of Miami’s 299th ranked 2pt FG% with McCormack and can match Miami’s speed advantage with their personnel if needed. Miami has struggled against bigger and more athletic backcourts this season (Alabama comes to mind), and Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun and Wilson all love to attack the rim and should be able to score with relative ease in this one. Miami is also susceptible in transition (ranking in the 37th percentile per Synergy in transition defensive efficiency) and Kansas is absolutely lethal there.
The one thing to worry about on the Kansas side is their struggles all year in ball-screen defense, which is all Miami does offensively behind their three-headed backcourt of Moore, Isaiah Wong and McGusty. They did look a lot more locked in defensively against Providence, only allowing .88 ppp, but the ball-screen defense against an elite backcourt is still a concern. For that reason, I have a lean on playing the over as well. But overall, Kansas should have more matchup issues for the Canes that Bill Self can exploit, and the Jayhawks should be able to score at will here.
The Pick: Kansas -5.5
