College basketball odds and betting picks for Sunday (3/13)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and Selection Sunday is finally here. With championship conference tournament games across the board, we get some great matchups between the best teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for today’s games.

Purdue vs. Iowa

(Line: Purdue -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)

It’s tough to get a complete read on the matchup between these two teams, as Iowa’s sophomore sensation Keegan Murray was absent in the first meeting, and Purdue’s dynamic playmaking combo guard Jaden Ivey was severely limited in the second. Regardless, both meetings resulted in Purdue winning pretty comfortably despite different gameplans from Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes. Iowa has been one of the hottest teams in the country of late (and the metrics and line indicates that), but they do not match up with Purdue particularly well. Where to beat Purdue is through their porous pick-and-roll defense, yet Iowa isn’t really a heavy pick-and roll-team. They run the majority of their offense through Keegan Murray’s unique inside-out skill set, finding open shooters and elite ball movement. 

Underneath, Purdue has a massive size advantage, as no one on Iowa can match the size of Zach Edey. If the Hawkeyes decide to go small with the Murray brothers, Purdue can roll out Trevion Williams, who creates another set of matchup problems and has torched Iowa in both the previous matchups. Fran McCaffery has tried to increase his defensive pressure against Purdue this year to exploit their turnover issues and lack of a true point guard, but Ivey is a menace in transition and could spell disaster for the Hawkeyes if he is in attack mode. Purdue’s defensive struggles are real, but they are still the No. 1 offense in the country per KenPom, and I think the pace of the game and the disruption Purdue’s size will have on Iowa gives them a massive advantage. Unless Iowa can get extremely hot from three, Purdue should get a ton of easy twos and be in control of this one.

The Pick: Purdue -2