College basketball odds and betting picks for Saturday (3/5)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is coming down the home stretch, and March is finally here. With the conference and NCAA tournaments quickly approaching, we get some great matchups between the best teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for Saturday’s slate.

LSU vs. Alabama

(Line: LSU -4, DraftKings Sportsbook)

It pains me to do this since Alabama is the most volatile team in the country, but the matchup is too good to pass up. LSU gives up a ton of three-pointers (347^th nationally in 3pt FGA defense), which plays directly into what Alabama wants to do (13^th nationally in 3pt FGA offense). The three-point shooting metrics have been completely opposite for these two squads as LSU’s defense is only allowing 27.7% from three-point range while Alabama has shot poorly from behind the arch all season at a mere 31.3%. If you know me as a better, I will be playing the regression game and think we see both those numbers mean revert it this matchup, especially with Alabama coming off an awful performance against Texas A&M. In their first matchup, Alabama was up double digits for majority of the game until they missed a ton of foul shots down the stretch and allowed LSU to crawl back into it. I think we see a similar result here and I’ll be backing the Alabama backcourt and their bounceback.

The Pick: Alabama +4

Seton Hall vs. Creighton

(Line: Pick ‘em, DraftKings Sportsbook)

With the loss of playmaking point guard Ryan Nembhard, Creighton has been relying on their frontcourt and scoring at the rim to generate offense, and that is simply not what you want to do against this lengthy Seton Hall defense. Creighton’s turnover numbers are already alarming (309^th nationally in turnover percentage), but without Nembhard the length of Kadary Richmond and Jared Rhoden could give Creighton a ton of problems. On offense, the Pirates have been adjusting to life without Bryce Aiken but have been trending upwards, winners of four straight. In their first matchup, the Seton Hall length really bothered Creighton at the Prudential Center, holding them to a mere 0.83 points per possession. I think we see a similar outcome here with Creighton down their point guard and a motivated Seton Hall to improve their chances at a tournament bid.

The Pick: Seton Hall Pk