College basketball odds and betting picks for Saturday (2/19)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and conference play provides matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for Saturday’s slate.

Texas vs. Texas Tech

(Line: Texas -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Everyone remembers Texas Tech putting together one of the most hostile environments of all time in Lubbock during the first meeting between these two teams this year as Tech fans continue to out Chris Beard as a “traitor” for jumping ship to Austin. Beard had to get a police escort to the court; it was a wild scene. Yet, in a game where the home-court advantage seemed like it was 15 points, despite the Longhorns taking the loss, I thought they were able to respond to some punches thrown and showed a lot of toughness. Narrative aside, I think Texas does hold some schematic advantages that may yield a different result this time around.

Positive shooting regression is certainly due for Texas as they shot a mere 26% from three in the first matchup in Lubbock while the Red Raiders shot 42%. The loss of Tre Mitchell for Texas certainly hurts, but in this matchup, it could be a net positive as it allows Beard to play smaller with a three-guard lineup of Marcus Carr, Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones. Spacing is incredibly important against this Mark Adams “no middle” defense as getting to the rim is virtually impossible so they will need to hit shots over the top of the Tech defense that ranks 346^th in 3pt FGA defense. The loss of Mitchell does hurt Texas’s 10^th-ranked defense a bit, but Texas Tech is not would I would call a stout offense, especially with their best player Kevin McCullar potentially out with injury. You know Texas will be hungry and motivated with revenge in mind, and Erwin will be loud. With Texas Tech just coming off a huge win against Baylor, everything points to the spot for the Longhorns and I think they get it done.

The Pick: Texas -2.5

Michigan State vs. Illinois

(Line: Illinois -1, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I was present during the shellacking Rutgers gave to the Illini this past week, and although Rutgers is one of the hottest teams in the country, watching that game felt more like just an off-shooting night for the Illini (and the shot quality metrics back it up) hitting only 26% from three (1-of-14 in the first half). Illinois is currently fighting with Purdue and Wisconsin down the stretch for a Big Ten title, and I honestly think a healthy Illinois team is the overall best team in the conference. Michigan State on the other hand has taken a bit of a turn after their hot start to Big Ten play losers of three of their last four and I think certain things that went right for Sparty earlier are catching up to them. Illinois were able to handle Sparty earlier in the season at home without Kofi Cockburn, and I think they do it again with him back in the lineup.

Breaking down the recent struggles for Michigan State, it’s the same story: lack of a consistent rotation (a new Tom Izzo staple), lack of a go-to scorer on offense and alarming turnovers. What this game comes down to will be the play of both perimeters. Izzo has a plethora of bigs he can throw at Cockburn to attempt to slow him down (you can only hope to contain him) and with the focus being in the paint, whoever wins the perimeter battle will have control of the game and I lean towards a healthy Illini back court to win that battle. There are a few teams in the Big Ten who I think are a bit smoke-and-mirrors and little overrated by the metrics (Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana), and Sparty may be one of them due to their unsustainable hot shooting from three all year (38.3% from three, ninth nationally). I think we see some positive shooting regression from Illinois after their loss to Rutgers and Michigan State continues to get lost in their weird rotations down the stretch, so I’ll be on the Illini side as they try to make a run for a Big Ten title.

The Pick: Illinois -1