Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and conference play provides matchups between the top teams in the country. Below are my analysis and favorite bets for Saturday’s slate.
Michigan State vs Indiana
(Line: Michigan State -4, DraftKings Sportsbook)
After a getting out to a hot 8-2 start to conference play, the Spartans have hit a bump in the road, losers of two straight. The shot-quality metrics did point to a Michigan State regression, but I am not ready to write Tom Izzo’s bunch off quite yet. In steps Indiana, who are currently going through their own issues as a program after Mike Woodson just served five players suspensions after violating team rules while backup point guard Rob Phinisee continues to sit out due to injury. The way to beat Michigan State’s long and athletic defense is off the bounce and an already shaky Hoosier’s back court is now incredibly thin. On the offensive end, Michigan State really struggles with turnovers, but Indiana won’t be able to exploit that, ranking 250th nationally in turnover percentage defense. Indiana will certainly have an advantage in the frontcourt behind duo Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson, but Izzo has his patented way of throwing a plethora of bigs at them all game and can slow them down with his deep rotation. Sparty was just -4 at home against a Wisconsin team who I have 2 points better than Indiana in my Power Rankings and with a motivated Izzo at the Breslin Center against a Hoosier squad in flux, this line seems very short.
The Pick: Michigan State -4
Miami vs. Wake Forest
(Line: Wake Forest -7.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I would have called you crazy if you said in February a Miami/Wake Forest matchup would be two top-five teams in the conference, but here we are in a very down ACC. These two teams met earlier in the season, and Miami where the Canes sliced and diced the Wake Forest defense to the tune of 92 points. Miami holds some schematic matchup advantages over the Deacons and I don’t see how much has changed in the past month. The way to beat Miami is at the rim and on the glass (308th nationally in 2pt FG% defense and 264th in defensive rebounding) where that isn’t really Wake Forest’s strength with Forbes’ five-out motion offense which uses LaRavia away from the basket. On defense Wake has been great at protecting the rim but Miami is a very perimeter-oriented team behind three lead guards and run an extremely PnR heavy attack where Wake Forest has struggled to defend all year. Even on the road Miami should be able to get enough stops and limit second chance points (Wake Forest ranks 239th in offensive rebounding) and should be able to compete in this one. I will be taking the points.
The Pick: Miami +7.5
