Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and the nonconference schedule is loaded with matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for Saturday’s slate.
Texas Tech vs. Gonzaga
(Line: Gonzaga -8, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I had the pleasure of watching Texas Tech live at Madison Square Garden in their epic 57-52 overtime fistfight against Tennessee. As you could tell, points were at a premium, and it maybe wasn’t the most enjoyable game to watch unless you are a college hoops junky like me. I was satisfied with the result since I had money on Texas Tech, but I am not too proud to admit it was the wrong side as Tennessee clearly got way better shots throughout the game. Both defenses are elite and I was very impressed with the length and disruption of the Red Raiders’ packed in defense.
At first glance, you may think Gonzaga could struggle with the physicality of the Texas Tech defense. But there are a few glaring weaknesses with this team, and I think they may be overvalued. Gonzaga typically performs well against any pack line defenses that discourage drives to the rim (Texas Tech allows 48.3% of opponents’ field goal attempts from the three-point line, 353rd nationally), as we saw against Texas this year and Virginia last season. The compact defense still allows the Zags to run their continuity offensive sets and find open shots from the perimeter. On the offensive side, Texas Tech is sort of a disaster as they have no real point guard and rely heavily on the offensive glass (second nationally in offensive rebounding percentage) where Gonzaga rebounds the ball particularly well (22nd nationally). Where Gonzaga has struggled is against playmaking guards that can break down the defense and that is not what Texas Tech has. Gonzaga is going to have to make shots against the pack line, but I don’t think Texas Tech has any firepower to be able to keep up with the Gonzaga offense. Zags get back on track in this one.
The Pick: Gonzaga -8
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Tennessee vs. Memphis
(Line: Tennessee -5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’m kicking myself after dropping a few units on the ultimate square play Alabama Tuesday, who got routed by Memphis as road favorites. Looking back, there are a few things to learn digging deeper into the matchup. Alabama was actually a good schematic matchup for Memphis, as the Tide want to run and never forced Memphis to execute in the halfcourt, where they have really struggled all year. Also, Alabama does not force a lot of turnovers, while Memphis ranks 351st in turnovers nationally. You live and you learn. In sports betting you need the memory of a goldfish, so moving onto their next matchup, Tennessee presents a ton of problems for this young Memphis team as they are elite at both of the things Alabama couldn’t do. Memphis will have to execute in the halfcourt and not turn the ball over against this stout Tennessee defense that ranks out as the best in the country per KenPom. I don’t have faith Memphis can do that here and I see Tennessee having similar success as they did in their prior matchup with UNC.
The Pick: Tennessee -5
