College basketball odds and betting picks for Saturday (12/11)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is going strong, and the nonconference schedule loaded with matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for Saturday’s slate.

Arizona vs. Illinois

(Line: Illinois -1, DraftKings Sportsbook)

What a start to the year it’s been for Arizona, who takes an undefeated record into a hostile environment in Champaign. The Illini seem to have righted the ship after a shaky start of the season, rattling off five straight wins, including Notre Dame, Kansas State and two Big Ten foes. The strength of their play comes behind their All-American monster of a human Kofi Cockburn underneath who seems impossible to stop, averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds per game. We’ll truly get to see how unstoppable Kofi is in this matchup as Arizona is the best post defending team in the entire country (allowing 38.4% from 2). We just saw the combination of Christian Koloko, Oumar Ballo and Azuolas Turbelis shut down a very talented Graham Ike from Wyoming and Hunter Dickinson of Michigan a few weeks ago, and we could see a similar fate for Cockburn. Arizona is the real deal and you’ll need strong guard play to defeat them. With Andre Curbelo out of the fold, I am not sure the Illini backcourt will be able to create enough good looks to generate offense in this one (unless Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer go nuts from three). The Illini defensive pressure could cause some issues for Arizona and take them out of their Gonzaga-lite continuity offense (thank you Tommy Lloyd), but I think the Wildcats make up for it in transition as Illinois is pretty poor defending (38th in average defensive possession length). Behind the strength of their frontcourt, I see this game going similarly to their trip to Ann Arbor and Arizona keeps their undefeated season rolling.

The Pick: Arizona +1

(Sign up for FTN Bets today for $49.99 a month!)

Houston vs. Alabama

(Line: Alabama -1, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Houston and their second-ranked defense take the trip to Alabama (basketball on a Saturday?) to face Nate Oats’ squad who has Crimson Tide fans second guessing if Alabama really is a football school. We just saw Alabama outphysical and outwork an extremely talented Gonzaga team on their way to an impressive victory in Seattle. Not many teams can match the Houston physicality but Alabama is one of them. Houston has been beating up on teams after their uncharacteristic performance against Wisconsin in Maui (Vegas), not having a winning margin lower than 29 points. Houston is relentless in attacking the offensive glass (23rd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage), and Kelvin Sampson’s defense forms an impenetrable wall on defense discouraging any dribble drives. You have to be able to shoot over the top of the Houston packed defense in order to open it up and that is exactly what Alabama wants to do. The Crimson Tide rank 54th in three-point field goal attempts per game shooting 44.5% of their shots from behind the three-point line. The four-headed backcourt of Jahvon Quinerly, Jaden Shackleford, Keon Ellis and JD Davison may be the best in the nation and should be able to generate open looks to shoot over the Houston defense. Alabama has enough bodies in the frontcourt, especially with Juwan Gary back from injury, to combat the stout Houston interior and as long as Alabama can take care of the ball, I think their backcourt makes more plays with the home crowd behind them than Houston’s backcourt. The Crimson Tide should add another top 10 victory to their season.

The Pick: Alabama -1