Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Happy New Year! The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and we start the new year with some conference matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for Saturday’s slate.
Marquette vs. Creighton
(Line: Pick’em, Total: 145, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have two teams headed in opposite directions here as Creighton is coming off a massive home win against the top team in the conference, Villanova, while Marquette has been struggling a bit lately as losers of three straight games. Creighton is very talented but also one of the youngest teams in the country, ranking 351st in experience, per KenPom. Being so young we can expect a ton of variance from game to game in Creighton’s performance, especially on the road.
What Marquette wants to do is speed up the game and extend their aggressive defensive pressure to make it uncomfortable for opposing backcourts. Creighton has struggled immensely against extended defensive pressure so far this year (see Iowa State and Arizona State) and turn the ball over at a high clip ranking 258th in turnover percentage. The emergence of Ryan Kalkbrenner inside has been a massive boost for the Bluejays, but Marquette’s Kur Kuath and Justin Lewis have the length that could make things difficult for him.
Marquette’s halfcourt offense is a work in progress and is predicated around Tyler Kolek endlessly running the pick-and-roll, but they really want to get out and score in transition where Creighton has struggled to prevent transition opportunities all year. After looking great against Nova, I think we see the poor version of this young inconsistent Creighton team who should struggle with the aggressive Marquette pressure. This is also Creighton’s first road game outside the state of Nebraska, so I like the Golden Eagles here to disrupt the Creighton momentum.
The Pick: Marquette Pk
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Baylor vs. Iowa State
(Line: Baylor -7, Total: 132, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We get a battle of two undefeated teams here to start Big 12 play and highlight a fantastic New Year’s Day slate between No. 1 Baylor and No. 8 Iowa State. The Cyclones have been the surprise story of the season under new coach TJ Otzelberger, looking great during their nonconference schedule and rattling off 12 straight wins including Xavier, Memphis and Creighton.
No one has been able to stop Baylor behind their fourth-ranked defense that seems almost impossible to score on. They have shut down the likes of Villanova and Michigan State and rallied on the road to defeat Oregon. What sticks out to me in this game are how good both defenses are. Both are built to give the opposing team massive issues. Baylor’s offense revolves around James Akinjo setting up open shooters and attacking in transition and the pick-and-roll, but Iowa State does a great job cutting off the head of the snake by firing (hard hedge/doubling) ball screens, extending pressure and denying passing lanes. We’ve seen Baylor struggle a little bit against defensive schemes like this (see VCU) where Akinjo has a hard time getting the Baylor offense set.
For the Cyclone offense, I really don’t see how they score with any consistency against this “no middle” and highly switchable defense that allows absolutely no penetration nor anything at the rim. I think we see a lot of frustrated Iowa State possessions that end in late shot clock contested three pointers from Izaiah Brockington and Gabe Kalsheur, similarly to what we saw in the Villanova game. Baylor should be heavy favorites on the road for a reason, but that Hilton Magic is always scary and that’s a lot of points to give this Iowa State team at home that is capable of causing turnovers and gaining momentum. The right play here is the under, as I see both offenses having difficulties scoring in the halfcourt for a few long stretches.
The Pick: Under 132
