NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the college basketball season nearly upon us, here are my favorite future national title winner bets to place before the season kicks off. Building a futures portfolio is always fun, and sportsbooks tend to offer some exploitable spots to attack. Of course, value is super important, and even though you may think Team X has the best shot at winning it all, the price may not be worth it, especially when you bring potential hedging into the equation.
I’ve had a ton of success in this space. Check out my recent track record:
- 2022-2023: Damn you UConn…
- 2021-2022: Hit Kansas 18/1 (2u)
- 2020-21: Hit Baylor 12/1 (2u)
- 2019-20: COVID-19, no tournament (had open futures on Michigan State and Kansas)
- 2018-19: Hit Virginia 30/1 (1u)
- 2017-18: Hit Villanova 28/1 (1u)
There are three main “boxes” a team must check for me in order to have a chance to win six straight games in March and cut down the nets:
- Elite Guard Play: I don’t care how dominant a team is throughout the course of the season, it is so hard to win six straight games in a tournament setting, and there are going to be at least 1-2 games that come down to the wire. What wins close games in college basketball? End-of-game playmaking ability from your backcourt. Take a look at previous national champion teams, and the one thing they all have in common are elite guards… see Davion Mitchell/Jared Butler, Ty Jerome/Kyle Guy, Jalen Brunson, Shabazz Napier, Tyus Jones.
- Elite Defense: If you take a look back at the last 10 or so champions, you’ll notice that almost every team finished in the top 15 of KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric. The old saying “defense wins championships” holds true in college basketball, especially because any team is bound for an off-shooting night in their six-game quest and will need to rely on solid defense to survive those draughts.
- Coaching: This one may not be as crucial as the first two, since we have seen a few outliers (see Kevin Ollie), but looking at the track record of past title winners, you will find experienced veteran coaches. Coaching is more important in college basketball than almost every other sport (compared to NBA for example) in terms of exploiting certain matchups, late-game situations and defensive schemes. The list of recent national champion coaches includes many of the all-time greats…. see Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski, Tony Bennett, Jay Wright, Rick Pitino and John Calipari.
Favorites
Duke +1600
(2 Units, Caesars)
With no clear-cut team that’s ahead of anyone else in this year’s CBB landscape, I find myself bullish on the Blue Devils since they look to have the most complete team in the country. Duke’s top-five backcourt consisting of steady veteran Jeremy Roach and dynamic playmaker Tyrese Proctor, who is primed for a breakout year, paired with one of the best bigs in the country, Kyle Filipowski, is a title-winning combination. Second-year coach Jon Scheyer had a quality showing in Year 1, leading a very young Duke squad to a No. 18 finish in KenPom. With the returning experienced players, matched with the No. 2 freshman class, I really like Duke’s chances come March. The only concern will be shoring up their interior defense behind Filipowski. I’m on them for two units at this price.
Michigan State +1600
(2 Units, BetMGM)
I will die on the hill of guards in March, and Sparty sports arguably the best backcourt in the nation behind sensational scoring threat Tyson Walker and one of my favorite playmakers in the country, AJ Hoggard. This is one of the deepest Michigan State teams Tom Izzo has had in years, and with both Jaden Akins and Malik Hall primed for breakout along with a No. 5-ranked freshman class, Sparty has it all. Rim protection will continue to be their Achilles’ Heel, and Izzo has a lot to figure out rotation wise. But I love their chances to pull it out for two units.
Mid-Level
Marquette +3000
(1 Unit, Caesars)
Another extremely strong backcourt behind potential Wooden Award winner Tyler Kolek and sharpshooting Kam Jones. Marquette returns basically everyone from a team that ran through a strong Big East, winning both the regular season and tournament crowns at MSG. Shaka Smart has done a tremendous job revitalizing his career after Texas and has the Golden Eagles playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor. With Swiss army knife Oso Ighodaro patrolling the paint, and guys like David Joplin primed for a breakout, Marquette is a great buy at this price.
Tennessee +3000
(1 Unit, BetMGM)
Feel like I am on a Tennessee future every year sheerly based on the top talent Rick Barnes continues to bring in and the massive defensive potential they have year after year. The Vols bring back a super talented veteran backcourt between bulldog point guard Zakai Zeigler & Uruguayan sharpshooter Santiago Vescovi, paired with a few top transfers Dalton Knecht and Jordan Gainey. A healthy Josiah-Jordan James is a scary prospect and will anchor this defense along with other potential all-conference defensive players like Jamai Mashack and Jonas Aidoo. The question always comes down to if Rick Barnes can finally get over that hump and win in March. The past tells us “no,” but we’ve seen this curse lifted recently off many coaches like Tony Bennett and Jay Wright. This is as good of a year as ever to break the curse.
USC +5000
(1 Unit, Caesars)
Yet another team that has a stacked backcourt that could carry them in March. Behind freshman phenom Isaiah Collier and dynamic scorer Boogie Ellis, the Trojans have all the pieces to make a deep tourney run. Andy Enfield has grown on me throughout the years, especially with his team’s consistent ability defensively to protect the paint, ranking in the top 10 nationally in 2pt FG% defense each of the last four years. Kobe Johnson and Wazzu transfer DJ Rodman provide a ton of versatility to a team that should be great defensively and can be carried by an elite backcourt. I’m hoping for a healthy Bronny James and Vince Iwuchukwu to raise the ceiling. Love the pieces to take a shot at this price.
Arkansas +3000
(0.5 Unit, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Had to get involved here just based on the level of talent this team has across the board. The fit, especially offensively, leaves a lot to be desired with the shot selection between El Ellis, Devo Davis, Tramon Mark and Khalif Battle being a major concern. But defensively, Eric Musselman has the opportunity to oversee the best defense in the country. There are enough individual scorers here to be good enough on the offensive end, but I have to take a shot here based purely on the defensive ceiling of those guards with Trevon Brazile behind them. I trust Musselman to figure it out.
Long Shots
Colorado +8000
(0.5 Unit, Caesars)
This could be the most talented team Tad Boyle ever had during his tenure at Colorado, as the Buffs will be rolling out two potential all-league players in dynamo point guard KJ Simpson and stretch-four swingman Tristen Da Silva. On top of that, Colorado brings in lengthy five-star freshman Cody Williams, which unlocks a whole new defensive ceiling. Boulder provides one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and Boyle teams have always been disciplined and elite at protecting the paint. If TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin is healthy, and Boyle can shore up his interior depth and get meaningful minutes from some unlikely freshman, this team can make some noise. Their ceiling is as high as Simpson performs. Will ride with half a unit at this cheap price.
Iowa State +12500
(0.5 Unit, Caesars)
Here is my long-shot dart this year. I am a huge believer in TJ Otzelberger’s system, vastly overachieving in his first two seasons in Ames due to his relentless pressure defense. The Cyclones had to deal with some turnover this offseason, but this could be the most talented team Oltzelberger has had yet. Scrappy point guard Tamin Lipsey is back for his sophomore year ready to make a jump to one of the better point guards in the Big 12. Five-star freshman Omaha Biliew provides a high motor that should fit perfectly into the Cyclone system. Throw in a super physical big man rotation of Tre King, Hason Ward and Robert Jones, along with wing scorers who have transferred in such as Jackson Paveletzke and Keshon Gilbert, the pieces have a ton of potential. Ames also provides one of the better home-court advantages in the nation. I have Iowa State ranked No. 24 in my Power Rankings to start the year, which makes this price a no-brainer to throw a half unit on.
Wisconsin +15000
(0.5 Unit, Caesars)
This price is just too good to pass up. The Badgers return pretty much everyone from a season ago while adding firecracker AJ Storr from St John’s, who can provide a nice needed scoring pop off the bench. Chucky Hepburn, Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl have all had their share of individual struggles, but they possess a ton of talent. Sharpshooter Conor Essegian should take another step forward in his sophomore campaign as well. Greg Gard and the unique paced-down Wisconsin swing system has shown historically that they can compete and cause anyone they play a ton of issues. I have them ranked No. 27 in my Power Rankings, so they are worth a small bullet.
Bonus Future: Wooden Award Winner
Tyler Kolek, Marquette +3000
(1 Unit, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Marquette should again have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and they are led by their veteran leader at point guard, Tyler Kolek. Kolek really picked up his play during the second half of Big East play where he averaged 16.5 points, 8 assists and 4 rebounds over his last 18 games. If Marquette wins the Big East again, and Kolek continues to put up these kind of consistent double-double numbers all year, he will be in the Wooden Award conversation come March. Love this price.
Donovan Clingan, UConn +5000
(1 Unit, Bet 365)
Zach Edey is obviously the favorite here and priced out of any betting angle, but we have Donovan Clingan sitting here at a very juicy price who has the potential to put up Edey-like numbers for UConn. Clingan’s sheer size and insane advanced metrics in his limited playing time a season ago makes him a prime candidate to put up massive numbers this season when getting extra minutes at the starting center spot replacing Adama Sanogo. He had a better eFG% and higher combined rebounding rate than Edey did last year. The question will be usage and minutes. Edey is fed the ball at will for Purdue with an insane 32% usage rate and consistently played over 30 minutes. If Danny Hurley decides to funnel the offense inside to Clingan at similar usage, these two will put up identical numbers, and it could come down to team success by the end of the year. I love having a 50/1 ticket in my hand if that plays out.
