College Basketball Best Bets (3/8)

As we inch closer and closer to NCAA tournament time, it feels wonderful to be able to bet on such pivotal games as the college basketball regular season wraps up for power conference teams, while auto-bids will start being handed out this weekend. In a little over a week, we will be able to dissect regions, identify potential upsets, and make official predictions for who will cut down the nets in San Antonio.

It’s been an up-and-down season, but it’s been solid lately so let’s continue riding the momentum into March Madness. As always, remember to shop around for the best odds. Lines are rarely identical across sportsbooks, especially when it comes to college basketball. The difference between -110 and -115 may seem small but it adds up throughout an entire season and especially if you’re going to be a volume shooter come the tournament, as I will be. But let’s get to it.

Last Article: 1-1 | Season (Articles): 34-28 | Season (Overall): 135-142-1

College Basketball Best Bets

St. John’s vs. Marquette

Fieserv Forum | Milwaukee
Marquette -2.5 | Total: 143.5

I haven’t given the Big East much love this year, but I figured this game would be as good as ever. Despite locking up the regular season title and contending for an outside shot at a 1 seed, St. John’s remains an underdog in this game.

That’s because Marquette is talented and worthy of the points they’re laying. Kam Jones has seriously surprised this year, elevating the Golden Eagles to a top-25 team. They take care of the ball better than almost any DI team. Allowing just 13 percent of their possessions to result in turnovers while defensively they force long possessions and steals.

The Johnnies, meanwhile, will rebound nearly every miss. OK, that might be a bit of an exaggeration but in the first game between these two squads, the Red Storm hauled in 21 offensive boards. An insane number. RJ Lewis and Kadary Richmond lead the second-best defense in the league that has limited teams to sub-60-point efforts.

I don’t want to spoil the play, but I think you can see where I’m going here. Both teams are defensive first with top-15 turnover rates. Even with all the offensive boards last game, Rick Patino’s squad still managed just 70 points, keeping Marquette to 64. The Golden Eagles won’t allow much from the perimeter or charity stripe, forcing many inefficient shots from St. John’s. With how good the Red Force defense is and expecting them to lean on that more in this road matchup, I’m riding the under here.

Prediction

St. John’s 70, Marquette 68

Best Bet

Under 143.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Kentucky vs. Missouri

Mizzou Arena | Columbia, MO
Mizzou -5.5 | Total: 169.5

I can hear what you’re saying through the computer/phone/device. “Why aren’t you talking about the Auburn/Alabama game?” I feel like I’ve covered Auburn nearly every article, so it’s time to do something different.

Since the New Year, despite going 10-7, Mizzou is the eighth-best team in basketball, per Bart Torvik with the third best offense. When you only consider home games, they rank fifth, with the seventh-best offense and 18th-best defense. The latter number is what stands out to me. On the season, they are 69th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, but in Columbia, it’s a different story. Their perimeter defense tightens up, allowing just 29.5% shooting from deep. They force turnovers at an even higher clip and force opponents deeper into the shot clock.

Kentucky, meanwhile, ranks as the 31st team in DI on the road since the New Year with a 3-5 record and the 99^th-ranked defense. That is going to be a major problem when facing such a deadly Mizzou team that will get to the charity stripe even more now. Kentucky ranks 355th in the away-from-home metric per Haslametrics and the only clear advantage I see for Kentucky is on the offensive glass. They will get their second chance looks, but I would be surprised if it’s enough to keep up with Missouri’s pacing. With Jaxon Robinson out, the Wildcats are also destined to have their depth questioned more in this game and Missouri is due for a bounce back, after two tough road losses. Even if Kentucky’s perimeter defense stays in check, Mizzou ranks fifth in near-proximity offense and eighth in quick points off turnovers.

There are many avenues for success for Mizzou and few for Kentucky so I’m happy taking the favorite in a potentially pivotal matchup.

Prediction

Missouri 90, Kentucky 80

Best Bet

Missouri -5.5 (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)